23d79-ax-advocacy

Caught in the Red Tape? How to Use Effective Advocacy to Get Things Moving

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 20:40:04 GMT

Caught in the Red Tape? How to Use Effective Advocacy to Get Things Moving

When a state regulation, policy, or licensing requirement is standing in the way of your business, don’t just get frustrated: get strategic.

My dad always said, “You’ve got to know the rule to get around it.” That does not mean breaking the rules. It means understanding exactly what the law or policy says, why it exists, and how to work within the system to find a solution. Regulations can be complicated and changing them is not easy, but knowing the rules is the first step to effective advocacy.

Here are five steps to help navigate state government and remove unnecessary barriers.

Know the Rule

Start by identifying the exact policy, regulation, or law creating the problem.

You can do this by:

Asking the regulator or government official to cite the exact rule they are enforcing
Searching on the agency’s website, where most rules and policies are published
Submitting a Freedom of Information request if needed

Just as important as identifying the rule is understanding its history. Ask: What problem was this originally designed to solve? Knowing the intent behind the policy often reveals whether it is still relevant or if it has outlived its usefulness.

Build Support

Reach out to other similar businesses to see if they are experiencing the same issue.

Even one or two additional voices can strengthen your position. Real stories, real costs, and real-world examples help decision-makers understand the impact.

Stay Focused

Once you understand the rule and have identified others with the same issue, develop a clear and simple message. Be able to explain:

What the rule is
How it is impacting your business
Why it is unnecessary or unreasonable in today’s context
What outcome would solve the problem

Clarity matters. A focused message with a practical solution is far more effective than a long list of complaints.

Work with the Agency

Start where the issue lives, inside the agency.

Speak first with the staff or office handling the matter. If you are not getting traction, identify agency leadership, including division directors, board members, or Governor-appointed agency heads.

Request an in-person meeting when possible. Many issues improve significantly when decision-makers hear directly how the policy is affecting real businesses.

Contact Your Elected Officials

If working through the agency does not resolve the issue, loop in your state representative or senator.

It is often best to begin by trying to work directly with the agency first, but keep your legislator informed along the way so they understand the issue if escalation becomes necessary.

Elected officials can help connect you to the right people, ask questions on your behalf, and push for broader policy changes when needed.

Key Takeaways

Most people skip the first step of identifying the rule and miss opportunities to resolve the issues quickly. Many times, policies and laws are misunderstood or misapplied.

Progress rarely comes from frustration alone, it comes from clarity, persistence, and collaboration.

Mischa Martin

Arkansas Principal

AxIndex, Edition 8

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 14:36:55 GMT

SNAPSHOT

Our Top 3:

1) Money Is Flooding the Map, But the Battlefield Is Narrowing
Q1 fundraising underscores a clear trend: both parties are entering the midterms with significant financial firepower, but Republicans maintain a structural advantage through outside groups and cash on hand. The NRCC posted a record-breaking quarter, while GOP-aligned super PACs are planning nearly $350 million to defend the Senate. At the same time, Democrats are often outraising Republicans at the candidate level in key battlegrounds. The result is a high-dollar cycle focused on a shrinking universe of truly competitive races, where outside spending and resource allocation will likely determine control.

2) Democratic Overperformance Is Real, and the Map Is Starting to Respond
Democrats have overperformed 2024 benchmarks in roughly 85% of special elections since Trump took office, including flips in deep-red districts and a win in a Florida seat covering Mar-a-Lago. That momentum is beginning to show up in the broader landscape, with key Senate races shifting left and Republicans facing a more difficult national environment tied to Trump’s approval and economic concerns. While the path to a Senate majority remains narrow, the trajectory is improving for Democrats. The big question now is whether these early signals translate to higher-turnout midterm conditions.

3) Redistricting Wars Enter the Final Stretch

Virginia and Florida have emerged as the last major redistricting battlegrounds before the midterms, with both parties attempting aggressive mid-decade map changes to gain an edge. In Virginia, Democrats are pushing a referendum that could net up to four seats, backed by tens of millions in outside spending and high-profile surrogates, including ads featuring Obama. In Florida, Republicans are weighing new maps amid legal constraints and internal concerns about overreach. With limited time before filing deadlines and primaries, these late-stage map fights could meaningfully shape the House battlefield, and may be one of the last opportunities to structurally shift the map before November.

National Sentiment Tracking

Democratic Overperformance in Special Elections Signals Shifting Environment

A new analysis of 229 elections since President Donald Trump took office shows Democrats consistently outperforming their 2024 baseline, with candidates exceeding former Vice President Kamala Harris’ margins in roughly 85% of races. On average, Democrats are running about 5 points stronger, with some special elections swinging dramatically, even in districts Trump carried, suggesting broad-based movement rather than isolated gains .

While both parties caution that low-turnout special elections are an imperfect predictor of midterm outcomes, the trend mirrors past cycles where early overperformance foreshadowed major shifts. Democrats attribute gains to energized turnout and a focus on affordability issues, while Republicans argue the dynamics will change in higher-turnout elections. Still, the consistency across states and districts points to a political environment that has moved leftward since 2024, raising the stakes for both parties heading into 2026. Read More.

Support for Iran Strikes Stagnant as GOP Divides Deepen

Public opinion on the Iran conflict remains tepid, with just 35% of Americans approving of U.S. military strikes, a figure that has held steady over the past month. Separate polling shows only about a quarter of Americans believe the war has been worth the costs, reinforcing broader skepticism as the conflict drags on.

The data also highlights emerging fractures within the Republican coalition. Younger Republicans are significantly less supportive of the strikes than those over 45, adding to divides between MAGA and non-MAGA voters. With soft support, even within the GOP base, the issue could present messaging challenges as the midterms approach. Read More.

HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

House
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 47.6 Dem - 41.6 GOP (D +6.0)
On this day in:

2022: 46.1 GOP - 42.5 Dem (R+3.6)

2018: 46.3 Dem - 38.8 GOP (D+7.5)

Retirements

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House.

Swalwell, Gonzales Resign Ahead of Expulsion Votes

Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) resigned from Congress just before the House was expected to move forward with expulsion votes over separate sexual misconduct scandals. Facing bipartisan pressure and looming ethics investigations, both lawmakers stepped down to avoid a rare and highly public removal process.

Their departures reflect a growing willingness from members of both parties to push for accountability, particularly in cases involving misconduct. At the same time, the episode underscores the challenges House leaders face in balancing due process, political realities, and maintaining a razor-thin majority, with additional ethics cases still pending. Read More.

Progressive Democrat Wins NJ Special Election, Reinforcing Party Momentum

Progressive activist Analilia Mejia defeated Republican Joe Hathaway 60–40 in a New Jersey special election, continuing a streak of Democratic overperformance heading into the 2026 midterms. The race, called minutes after polls closed, fills a seat vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill and keeps a once-competitive district firmly in Democratic hands.

Despite significant outside spending against her in the primary, Mejia's victory highlights both grassroots energy and shifting dynamics within the Democratic coalition. While Republicans downplayed the result given low turnout, the margin adds to a broader pattern of Democratic strength in special elections, offering another early signal of the political environment ahead of November. Read More.

House GOP Posts Record Fundraising as Both Parties Claim Momentum

House Republicans are touting a record-breaking $47.1 million first-quarter fundraising haul through the NRCC, narrowly outpacing Democrats and signaling strong donor engagement as they work to defend a slim majority. GOP leaders argue the numbers reflect confidence in their ability to withstand traditional midterm headwinds, with President Donald Trump playing a central role in energizing donors and campaign infrastructure.

Still, the broader picture remains competitive. Democrats are close behind in fundraising and point to strong candidate performance and overperformance in recent elections as evidence of their own momentum. With economic concerns continuing to dominate voter sentiment, both parties are entering the cycle well-funded and framing the midterms as a referendum on economic leadership, setting up a tightly contested fight for control of the House. Read More.

Redistricting

Virginia Redistricting Vote Marked by Confusion and Heavy Spending

Florida Redistricting Session Delayed as Stakes and Scope Expand

Florida’s special session on redistricting has been delayed one week, with Gov. Ron DeSantis pushing it to April 28 while signaling he will take the lead on proposing new congressional maps. The delay adds uncertainty to one of the final major redistricting battlegrounds, where Republicans are considering mid-decade changes to help maintain control of the House.

DeSantis is also using the session to revive stalled priorities, including expanded vaccine exemptions and an “AI Bill of Rights,” broadening the scope beyond redistricting. The process is expected to face significant legal challenges, and the timing, combined with White House interest in reshaping maps, underscores the high political stakes heading into the 2026 midterms. Read More.

SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

Recent Polls

Co/efficient (TX GOP Runoff): Cornyn (i) 44, Paxton (R) 43
Data for Progress (MI Dem Primary): Stevens 23, McMorrow 22, El-Sayed 22
Emerson (MI Dem Primary): McMorrow 24, El-Sayed 24, Stevens 13
Boston Globe/Suffolk (MA Dem Primary): Markey (i) 47, Moulton 30
High Point/YouGov (NC General): Cooper (D) 50, Whatley (R) 42

Cook Ratings

Likely D: MN (Open D)
Lean D: GA (Ossoff) NC (Open R), NH (Open D)
Tossup: ME (Collins - R), MI (Open - D), OH - Special (Husted)
Lean R: AK (Sullivan)
Likely R: IA (Open - R), NE (Ricketts), TX (Cornyn)

Retirements

So far, 11 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.

Cook Shifts Senate Map Toward Democrats, But GOP Still Poised to Hold Slim Control

The Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races toward Democrats, citing a worsening national environment for Republicans, but still projects the GOP as the favorite to retain control of the chamber. Key moves include North Carolina and Georgia shifting to “Lean Democrat,” while Ohio moved to “Toss Up” and Nebraska to “Lean Republican,” signaling a more competitive map.

Despite the movement, structural advantages still favor Republicans, with Democrats needing four seats to win a majority and facing challenging races and primary divisions in several states. Analysts point to President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings and issues such as the war in Iran and rising costs as headwinds for the GOP, but note that the outlook could shift depending on political and economic conditions in the months ahead. Read More.

Democrats Lead Candidate Fundraising as GOP Leans on Outside Money

MAHA Movement Faces Early Test in Louisiana Senate Race

The “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) movement is getting its first real electoral test in Louisiana’s Senate primary, but early signs suggest limited impact. Despite endorsing Rep. Julia Letlow and pledging support, MAHA-affiliated groups have spent relatively little and failed to consolidate backing, while the race remains dominated by traditional GOP dynamics, particularly loyalty to Donald Trump and cost-of-living concerns.

The fragmented approach and modest resources raise questions about MAHA’s ability to translate its grassroots energy into political influence ahead of the midterms. While the movement has ambitions to shape races nationally, its uneven presence in Louisiana suggests it may remain more aligned with Trump’s coalition than a standalone force. Read More.

IN THE STATES

States Push Back as Data Center Boom Sparks Midterm Tensions

Data center expansion is quickly becoming a state-level political flashpoint, with at least 11 states introducing legislation to restrict or halt development amid growing concerns over power usage, water strain, and local infrastructure. Maine is on track to become the first state to impose a temporary ban, while others are exploring limits tied to environmental impact, energy costs, and consumer protections, signaling a broader wave of state-led action in the absence of federal policy.

The issue is cutting across party lines, forcing governors and state lawmakers to balance economic growth and AI investment against rising constituent backlash. With proposals ranging from outright moratoriums to tighter regulations, how states respond could shape not only local economies but also national political narratives around energy, affordability, and technological expansion heading into 2026. Read More.

EMERGING NARRATIVES

The Check-Writers: Self-Funders Flood 2026 Congressional Races

Wealthy candidates are betting their own fortunes on congressional seats across the country in 2026. In Maryland's 6th District, David Trone, co-founder of Total Wine & More and one of the biggest self-funders in congressional history, has already poured more than $10 million into a primary challenge against the incumbent he personally endorsed to succeed him ( read more ). In San Francisco, former AOC chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti has self-funded nearly $5 million chasing Nancy Pelosi's open seat while raising just $61,000 from actual donors so far this year ( read more ). Three Democrats in New Jersey’s competitive 7th District primary enter the final stretch with similar cash on hand, but only Rebecca Bennett built her war chest entirely from donor fundraising, while her opponents rely heavily on self-funding ( read more ).

The pattern reflects a broader trend that has reshaped congressional campaigns for years. Self-funding candidates cashed in millions to their own races in recent cycles, and 2026 is on pace to continue that momentum. But the track record is uneven at best. Just look at David Trone; he spent over $60 million in the 2024 Maryland Senate primary and lost by 11 points. Money buys airtime. It doesn't always buy votes.

ON THE HORIZON

Upcoming Elections:

April 21:
Virginia Redistricting Amendment

May 5:
Indiana Primary
Ohio Primary

May 12:
Nebraska Primary
West Virginia Primary
North Carolina Runoff

May 16:
Louisiana Primary

May 19:
Alabama Primary
Georgia Primary
Idaho Primary
Kentucky Primary
Oregon Primary
Pennsylvania Primary

AxAdvocacy Expands State Presence with Opening of Little Rock Office

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 20:16:03 GMT

Seasoned Arkansas Policy Leader Mischa Martin Named Arkansas Principal

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — AxAdvocacy, a multi-state government relations and public affairs firm, today announced the opening of a Little Rock office and the appointment of Mischa Martin as Arkansas Principal. The expansion marks the firm’s latest step in growing its state-level presence, joining existing offices in Pennsylvania, Missouri, and California.

“Mischa is exactly the kind of leader we look for when we expand into a new state,” said Ashlee Rich Stephenson, President of AxAdvocacy. “Her deep roots in Arkansas, her relationships across state government, and her track record of driving real, lasting change make her an exceptional addition to our team. We are thrilled to welcome her and to deepen our commitment to clients and partners in Arkansas.”

Martin is a lifelong Arkansan and seasoned leader in government relations, public policy, and child and family services, with nearly two decades of experience navigating state government. An attorney with a Master’s in Public Administration, she began her career in 2008 with the Arkansas Department of Human Services. She went on to serve as Director of the Division of Children and Family Services and was later appointed by Governor Sarah Sanders as Deputy Secretary of Youth and Families, where she oversaw statewide programs including child welfare, childcare, and juvenile justice.

During her tenure in state government, Martin led major reforms that reduced the number of children in foster care, improved permanency outcomes, expanded prevention services, and helped Arkansas achieve record-setting increases in adoptions. After leaving state government, she founded SHIFT Consulting and later joined Casey Family Programs, advising states across the country on public policy, system reform, and government strategy.

“I have spent my career working to strengthen systems and improve outcomes for Arkansas families, and I am excited to continue that work in a new capacity,” said Martin. “AxAdvocacy’s commitment to results-driven advocacy is a natural fit for the work I am passionate about, and I look forward to helping businesses, stakeholders, and organizations navigate government and make a meaningful difference.”

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 13:19:43 GMT

AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS to discuss affordability.

“We have to get back to the issues of pricing and affordability,” Ashlee said. “The onus is on Republicans to remind voters that there’s a reason why President Trump won the Electoral College and the popular vote.”Under President Biden, Americans experienced the highest inflation in more than 40 years, and families are still feeling it every day. Voters can easily point fingers, but solving affordability is harder. Heading into the midterms, the question is simple: who has the actual solutions to lower prices and cool inflation?

Watch the full interview:

Ashlee Rich Stephenson

President

AxIndex, Edition 7

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 18:12:19 GMT

SNAPSHOT

Our Top 3:

1) Redistricting Fight Comes Down to Florida and Virginia
The mid-decade redistricting battle has narrowed to two final battlegrounds, with high-stakes fights unfolding in Florida and Virginia just weeks before key deadlines. Democrats are pushing an aggressive map in Virginia amid voter skepticism, while Republicans in Florida face legal hurdles and internal concerns about overreach. With limited time for other states to act, decisions in these two states could shift multiple House seats and play a decisive role in chamber control.

2) GOP Unveils Massive Financial Edge in Senate Battlegrounds
Republicans are ramping up a nearly $350 million super PAC strategy to defend and expand their Senate majority across an eight-state map. The scale and early timing of the spending, particularly in states like Ohio and North Carolina, signal how competitive the battlefield is becoming. With Democrats needing to flip four seats, the GOP’s financial advantage could allow them to define races early and shape outcomes in a tight cycle.

3) Democratic Momentum Builds Through State-Level Infrastructure and Wins
Democrats are pairing record-breaking candidate recruitment with continued gains in state legislative races, signaling early midterm momentum. The party is expanding its map across dozens of chambers and hundreds of districts, including full slates in traditionally red states. Combined with recent special election wins, these efforts position state races as a key front in shaping redistricting, policy, and the broader 2026 landscape.

National Sentiment Tracking

"DOUBLE HATERS" COULD DECIDE THE MIDTERMS

A new CNN poll shows that roughly a quarter of voters hold negative views of both parties, so-called “double haters,” but currently break toward Democrats by a wide margin, favoring them by 31 points on the generic ballot. This marks a notable shift from recent cycles, where these voters helped power Republican gains, including in 2022.

Despite that edge, support is driven more by opposition to Republicans and Donald Trump than enthusiasm for Democrats, whose favorability remains low. These voters consistently cite dissatisfaction with both parties, viewing Democrats as ineffective or too liberal and Republicans as too aligned with Trump or out of touch. In a midterm environment likely shaped by turnout and anti-incumbent sentiment, this bloc remains highly volatile but could prove decisive if Democrats maintain their current advantage. Read More.

HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

House
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 47.6 Dem - 41.6 GOP (D +6.0)
On this day in
:2022: 46.1 GOP - 42.5 Dem (R+3.6
)2018: 46.3 Dem - 38.8 GOP (D+7.5)

GOP ALLIES LAUNCH $10M AD BLITZ TO SELL TRUMP TAX CUTS

A major conservative group aligned with House Speaker Mike Johnson is launching a $10 million national ad campaign to promote the GOP’s “Working Families Tax Cuts Act,” timing the effort around Tax Day to highlight benefits like expanded tax cuts, no taxes on tips, and overtime pay. The campaign will run across dozens of competitive districts, aiming to reinforce Republicans’ economic message as voters begin filing returns.

The push reflects a broader GOP strategy to center the midterm debate on tax relief and affordability, particularly as the party faces political headwinds tied to inflation, rising energy costs, and geopolitical tensions. Democrats, meanwhile, are attacking the law as disproportionately benefiting wealthy individuals, setting up a clear economic contrast that is likely to define House messaging heading into 2026. Read More.

GEORGIA SPECIAL ELECTION TESTS GOP STRENGTH IN DEEP-RED DISTRICT

A closely watched Georgia House special election to replace former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has advanced to a runoff between Democrat Shawn Harris and Republican Clay Fuller, with Harris drawing national attention and significantly outraising his opponent. Despite the financial edge and high-profile Democratic support, the district remains heavily Republican, making a Democratic upset a long shot.

Still, the race is being closely monitored for what it could signal about GOP turnout and vulnerability in safe districts. With Republicans holding a razor-thin House majority, even a single unexpected loss could have outsized implications for control of the chamber, especially in a low-turnout special election where enthusiasm can swing outcomes. Read More.

Retirements

Notable retirements from Congress are beginning to come out as the election year gets underway. The current total sits at 57 incumbent members (21 Democrats / 36 Republicans) of the House who have announced they are not seeking re-election.

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House.

GOP RETIREMENT WAVE CONTINUES WITH GRAVES EXIT

Rep. Sam Graves, a 13-term Missouri Republican and chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, announced he will retire at the end of his term, adding to a growing list of GOP departures ahead of the 2026 midterms. While his safely Republican district is unlikely to change hands, his exit marks the loss of a senior lawmaker with significant policy influence and institutional knowledge.

Graves’ retirement reflects broader dynamics shaping the cycle, including expectations of a challenging midterm environment for Republicans and increasing generational turnover in Congress. The continued wave of departures could expand the number of open seats and contribute to a more fluid and competitive electoral landscape heading into November. Read More.

Redistricting

FLORIDA AND VIRGINIA EMERGE AS FINAL REDISTRICTING BATTLEGROUNDS

Florida and Virginia have become the last major fronts in the mid-decade redistricting fight, with both states facing political and legal uncertainty just weeks before key deadlines. In Virginia, Democrats are pushing an aggressive map that could eliminate multiple Republican-leaning districts, but early polling shows voter skepticism, with a majority viewing mid-cycle redistricting as a “bad idea.” The fight has drawn tens of millions in outside spending, underscoring the national stakes tied to House control ( read more ).

In Florida, Republicans are weighing a similarly aggressive redraw but face internal concerns about overreach potentially backfiring in a shifting political environment, along with legal constraints from anti-gerrymandering laws. The effort is also tied to a pending Supreme Court decision that could reshape redistricting rules nationwide ( read more ). With limited time for other states to act, outcomes in Florida and Virginia could have an outsized impact on the 2026 House map.

SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

GOP SUPER PAC UNVEILS $350M PLAN TO DEFEND SENATE MAJORITY

The Senate Leadership Fund is rolling out a nearly $350 million strategy to defend Republican control of the Senate, targeting an eight-state battleground that includes key defensive races in Ohio, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, and Alaska, while also going on offense in Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire. The group is frontloading spending to lock in ad rates and define races early, with particularly heavy investments planned in Ohio and North Carolina.

The scale and early timing of the spending underscore how competitive the Senate map is becoming, even in states that have trended Republican. With Democrats needing to flip four seats to take control, the GOP’s financial advantage and ability to shape the airwaves early could prove decisive in close races, especially as outside groups and primaries further complicate the battlefield. Read More.

Retirements

So far, 10 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.

Polling At A Glance

Recent Polls

The Alabama Poll (AL GOP Primary): Moore 23, Marshall 21, Hudson 19, Walker 3
Emerson (FL General): Moody (R-i) 46, Vindman (D) 38
Emerson (FL General): Moody (R-i) 45, Muijica (D) 38
Emerson (FL General): Moody (R-i) 47, Nixon (D) 36
Emerson (KY GOP Primary): Barr 28, Cameron 21, Morris 15
Emerson (KY Dem Primary): Booker 36, McGrath 18, Stevenson 3, Romans 2, Thompson 2
Quantus (NC General): Cooper (D) 49, Whatley (R) 44

IN THE STATES

DEMOCRATS RAMP UP HISTORIC CANDIDATE RECRUITMENT FOR MIDTERMS

Democrats are reporting record-breaking candidate recruitment in state legislative races, signaling growing momentum ahead of the 2026 midterms. According to the DLCC, the party is fielding candidates at unprecedented levels across battleground and traditionally red states, including full slates in places like Texas, North Carolina, and Arizona, an early indicator of competitiveness and engagement.

The expanded target map spans dozens of chambers and hundreds of districts, reflecting a strategy to compete broadly rather than focus narrowly on traditional battlegrounds. Party officials argue that even modest gains across this map could shift control of key legislatures, influence redistricting, and shape policy outcomes in presidential swing states. By investing early and widely, Democrats are positioning state races as a central battleground with potential downstream impacts on the national political landscape. Read More.

WISCONSIN SUPREME COURT RACE HIGHLIGHTS STAKES IN KEY BATTLEGROUND

Wisconsin voters are deciding a state Supreme Court race that, while not expected to change the court’s liberal majority, could shape legal outcomes in one of the nation’s most competitive states. The court has played a central role in resolving disputes between the GOP legislature and Democratic governor, including past rulings on election procedures and abortion policy.

Though officially nonpartisan, the race reflects clear partisan divides, with endorsements from national figures and messaging focused on issues like abortion, democracy, and cost of living. With justices serving 10-year terms, the outcome could influence future rulings on redistricting and election law, giving the race outsized importance in a state likely to be central to the 2026 midterms and beyond. Read More.

EMERGING NARRATIVES

BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP CASE ELEVATES IMMIGRATION AS A CORE 2026 ISSUE

The Supreme Court appeared broadly skeptical of President Donald Trump’s effort to end birthright citizenship during oral arguments, with justices across the ideological spectrum questioning the legal basis of the policy. Trump’s executive order, which would deny citizenship to children born in the U.S. to undocumented immigrants and temporary visa holders, has been blocked by lower courts and faces significant constitutional hurdles under the 14th Amendment.

Even conservative justices raised concerns about overturning long-standing precedent, warning it could create legal uncertainty and unintended consequences for millions of people. The case is elevating immigration—and constitutional interpretation—back to the forefront of national politics, with the potential to energize both parties’ bases and shape messaging ahead of the 2026 midterms. Read More.

MAHA COALITION RESHAPES TRUMP-ERA COALITION POLITICS

New polling suggests a growing alignment between Trump supporters and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s “Make America Healthy Again” movement, creating an unconventional coalition that cuts across traditional party lines. The overlap is driven by shared skepticism of government, public health institutions, and corporate influence. While still fluid, this coalition could complicate turnout and persuasion models in key states. If it holds, it may force both parties to recalibrate messaging around health, trust, and institutional credibility heading into 2026. Read More.

ON THE HORIZON

Upcoming Elections:

April 16:
NJ-11 Special General

April 21:
Virginia Redistricting Amendment

May 5:
Ohio Primary
Indiana Primary

AxIndex, Edition 6

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 16:27:48 GMT

SNAPSHOT

Our Top 3:

1) Redistricting Fights Come to Courts and Ballots: Redistricting battles are intensifying across the country, with courts and ballot measures shaping the electoral landscape well before 2026. Missouri’s Supreme Court upheld mid-decade redistricting using existing census data, while Virginia’s high-stakes referendum is drawing tens of millions in outside spending to influence congressional maps.

2) Big Money’s Influence Faces Limits in Key Primaries: While large spends dominate in races and ballot measures, the Illinois primaries delivered mixed results for outside groups, particularly those tied to AIPAC, which spent more than $20 million across multiple races. While some preferred candidates won, others lost despite significant financial backing, highlighting that heavy spending can shape outcomes. The results underscore a key dynamic for 2026: outside money remains powerful, but candidate positioning and local dynamics still matter.

3) Democratic Gains at the State Level Signal Early Momentum: Democrats have flipped 29 Republican-held state legislative seats over the past 14 months, including a recent win in a Florida district covering Mar-a-Lago, marking an early warning sign for Republicans ahead of the midterms. Driven in part by cost-of-living concerns, these gains could have downstream impacts on redistricting, policy, and the candidate pipeline, with both parties increasingly viewing state races as a leading indicator of national political trends heading into 2026.

National Sentiment Tracking

Trump Approval: Polarized Map, Battleground Pressure

Nearly 14 months into his second term, Donald Trump is holding his base but remains underwater overall. New Civiqs data puts him at 39% approval / 57% disapproval (–18 net), a stable but constrained position heading into a midterm cycle.

The battleground map tells the real story. Arizona (-8) and North Carolina (-10) are still within reach, with Wisconsin (-11) close behind. But the challenge sharpens in the core tipping-point states: Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia (-17), and Michigan (-21), where disapproval is more baked in.

The takeaway: there’s no breakout state right now, but there doesn’t need to be. This is a turnout election environment. Trump’s floor keeps the map competitive, but his ceiling continues to cap upside in the states that will actually decide control. Read More.

Poll Shows American Support Voter ID, but Unsure on Save Act

When it comes to the SAVE Act, a new CBS poll shows voters are aligned on the idea, but not the actual policy. The core of the “SAVE America Act," requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote, draws strong support (66%), roughly two-thirds of Americans.

But that support doesn’t translate to the legislation itself. When asked about the SAVE Act, just 28% support it, 31% oppose, and 41% aren’t sure, a major drop-off once the policy gets specific.

Even among Republicans, support is soft and uneven: 60% support, 6% oppose, 34% unsure. Regardless of politics, only a small share say they know the details, while roughly half don’t know much at all.

Voters broadly support voting ID requirements in principle, but opinions on specific legislation remain unsettled, with awareness of proposed policies low heading into 2026. Read More.

HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

House
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 47.4 Dem - 42.5 GOP (D +4.9)
On this day in:
2022: 45.0 GOP - 41.8 Dem (R+3.2)
2018: 46.0 Dem - 39.5 GOP (D+6.5)

Recent Polls
The Alabama Poll (AL-01 GOP Primary): Carl 28, Marques 19
St Anslem (NH-02 General): Goodlander (D-i) 48, Tang Williams (R) 36

Cook Ratings
TX-23: Solid R to Likely R
CA-48: Toss-up to Lean D

Retirements

Notable retirements from Congress are beginning to come out as the election year gets underway. The current total sits at 56 incumbent members (21 Democrats / 35 Republicans) of the House who have announced they are not seeking re-election.

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House.

Illinois Primaries Show Limits of Big Money Influence

Four Democratic House primaries in Illinois delivered mixed results for outside groups, particularly those tied to AIPAC, which spent more than $20 million to shape the races. While some candidates backed by pro-Israel and tech-aligned spending won, others prevailed despite being outspent, highlighting that heavy financial investment does not guarantee victory.

The results underscore the complex role of outside money in 2026 primaries: large spending can tip close races but can also energize opposition and become a liability. As super PAC involvement expands, these contests suggest that candidate positioning and local dynamics remain critical, even in heavily funded races. Read More.

Barr Senate Run Opens Long-Shot Opportunity for Democrats in Kentucky

Rep. Andy Barr’s decision to run for Senate is creating a rare open-seat opportunity in Kentucky’s 6th District, a seat Republicans have comfortably held for over a decade. While Democrats acknowledge they would have had little chance against Barr, his departure has put the district on their target list, with candidates emphasizing affordability and crossover appeal to compete in the GOP-leaning seat.

Still, the path remains steep. The district has trended more Republican in recent years, and early signs suggest it is not a top-tier battleground, with limited outside spending and skepticism from GOP strategists. Even without an incumbent, the race highlights both the opportunities and limits Democrats face in expanding the House map ahead of the 2026 midterms. Read More.

Redistricting

Missouri Supreme Court Upholds Mid-Decade Redistricting

The Missouri Supreme Court ruled 4–3 that state lawmakers acted within their constitutional authority when they redrew congressional districts in 2025 using the same census data from 2022. The majority found that the state constitution does not explicitly prohibit mid-decade redistricting, allowing the legislature to pass a new map backed by Gov. Mike Kehoe and President Donald Trump.

The decision clears the way for a map that could shift political control, potentially flipping a Democratic-held Kansas City seat to Republicans, but the fight is not over. Opponents are pursuing a referendum to block the map, setting up a continued legal and political battle over redistricting ahead of the 2026 elections. Read More.

Massive Fundraising Gap Emerges in Virginia Redistricting Fight

A federal court rejected Republican efforts to block Utah’s court-ordered congressional map, clearing the way for districts that could give Democrats a viable path to one of the state’s four House seats in 2026. The map consolidates Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County rather than splitting it across multiple districts, and the court declined to intervene so close to the election calendar. The decision underscores how court rulings, even in reliably Republican states, are actively reshaping competitiveness and could influence the fight for House control. Read More.

SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

Retirements

So far, 10 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.

Stratton Wins Illinois Primary, Boosting Pritzker’s Influence

Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton is projected to win the Democratic primary to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, defeating Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, despite being significantly outspent. Stratton’s victory was bolstered by strong backing from Gov. JB Pritzker, who invested millions through an aligned outside group and put his political capital behind her bid.

With Illinois solidly Democratic, Stratton is now the clear favorite in November, making the primary the decisive contest. The result elevates Stratton to the national stage and strengthens Pritzker’s influence within the party as he continues to emerge as a potential 2028 presidential contender. Read More.

Oklahoma Senate Appointment Sets Up Competitive Open Seat

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt has appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong to temporarily fill the Senate seat vacated by Sen. Markwayne Mullin, who was confirmed to lead the Department of Homeland Security. Stitt highlighted Armstrong’s business background and alignment with President Donald Trump’s energy agenda, but under state law, Armstrong is expected to pledge not to run for a full term, effectively creating an open-seat race later this year.

The appointment is already triggering early political maneuvering. Rep. Kevin Hern launched his bid and has already received endorsements from Leader Thune and Senator Tim Scott. With candidate filing set for April and a primary scheduled for June 16, the seat is poised to become a fast-moving and closely watched contest in the 2026 cycle. Read More.

Polling At A Glance

Recent Polls

PPP (NC General): Cooper (D) 47, Whatley (R) 44
Quantus Insights (TX GOP Runnoff): Paxton 49, Cornyn (i) 41
St. Anslem (NH GOP Primary): Sununu 49, Brown 48
St. Anslem (NH General): Pappas (D) 46, Sununu (R) 43
St. Anslem (NH General): Pappas (D) 47, Brown (R) 38

IN THE STATES

State-Level Gains Signal Early Democratic Momentum

Democrats have flipped 28 Republican-held state legislative seats over the past 14 months, including wins in deep red states like Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi, an early warning sign for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms. Some of these victories have even broken GOP supermajorities, raising concerns about turnout and voter enthusiasm.

Both parties see these races as a preview of the midterm environment, particularly as cost-of-living issues continue to drive voter sentiment. Democrats are expanding their map and investing heavily in state legislatures, where control impacts redistricting, while Republicans are focused on mobilizing low-propensity voters, setting up an increasingly competitive landscape heading into 2026. Read More.

Democrat Flips Florida Seat in Trump’s Backyard

Democrat Emily Gregory won a special election in a Florida state legislative district that includes Mar-a-Lago, flipping a seat Republicans had carried by 19 points in 2024 and defeating a Trump-endorsed candidate. The upset marks one of the most notable Democratic wins in a series of recent special elections, including in traditionally Republican areas.

Democrats are pointing to the result as further evidence of growing momentum ahead of the 2026 midterms, particularly as affordability concerns continue to drive voter sentiment. The victory in a district tied closely to President Donald Trump underscores potential vulnerabilities for Republicans, even in areas that have recently leaned heavily GOP. Read More.

EMERGING NARRATIVES

RNC Financial Advantage Over DNC Continues to Grow

The Republican National Committee significantly widened its fundraising lead over the Democratic National Committee in February, bringing in $18.5 million compared to the DNC’s $10.3 million. Entering March, the RNC reported nearly $109 million in cash on hand, about seven times more than the DNC’s $15.9 million, while Democrats also carry more debt than cash, driven by a $15 million loan taken out last year.

The growing financial gap could have major implications for the 2026 midterms, particularly as the Supreme Court considers raising limits on how much parties can spend in coordination with candidates. If approved, the change would allow the RNC to more directly deploy its cash advantage to support Republican campaigns, further amplifying the imbalance. Read More.

DCCC Launches Targeted Ad Blitz on Rising Gas Prices

House Democrats are launching a digital ad campaign blaming President Donald Trump and Republicans for rising gas prices tied to the Iran conflict, targeting voters in 44 competitive districts. The six-second ads will run on Facebook and Instagram and are geofenced to appear at or near gas stations, directly linking higher prices at the pump to GOP leadership.

The campaign reflects Democrats’ broader effort to center affordability ahead of the 2026 midterms, as gas prices have surged nationwide amid disruptions in global oil markets. While Republicans argue the increases are a short-term consequence of confronting Iran, Democrats are seizing on the issue as a tangible, everyday cost pressure for voters in key battleground districts. Read More.

ON THE HORIZON

Upcoming Elections:

March 31:
Arkansas Runoff

April 16:
NJ-11 Special General

AxIndex, Edition 5

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 18:54:06 GMT

SNAPSHOT

Our Top 3:

1) Early Primaries Signal Volatility for Incumbents: The first round of 2026 primaries is already revealing a more unstable political environment for incumbents and party establishments. In Texas, where new congressional maps took effect, Rep. Dan Crenshaw was defeated in a GOP primary, while several other races were pushed into runoffs, including contests involving former Rep. Colin Allred and Rep. Julie Johnson and a Houston-area battle between Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee. The state’s high-profile Senate race is also reflecting the same dynamics, with Attorney General Ken Paxton mounting a serious challenge to Sen. John Cornyn and driving one of the most expensive primaries of the cycle. Together, the results highlight growing ideological pressure within both parties and suggest intraparty battles could play an increasingly significant role in shaping the candidate field before the general election even begins.

2) Energy, AI, and Global Conflict Collide in Economic Messaging: A series of developments are linking energy markets, technology policy, and national security into a single economic narrative heading toward the midterms. The rapid expansion of AI data centers is driving new debates over how the U.S. will generate enough electricity to power the industry, while tensions with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing oil and gasoline prices higher. Together, these issues are reinforcing broader affordability and competitiveness debates as policymakers balance energy policy, tech leadership, and consumer costs.

3) Wave of Congressional Retirements Expands the 2026 Battleground: An unusually high number of House members have already announced retirements ahead of the 2026 midterms, putting the next Congress on pace for significant turnover. The growing number of open seats, combined with redistricting changes and primary volatility, could expand the competitive map and force both parties to defend districts that would otherwise remain stable.

National Sentiment Tracking

AXINSIGHTS LATEST ISSUE POLLING

Last week, we shared the attached national polling deck from AxAdvocacy’s latest research partnership with Ipsos.

Ipsos fielded a national survey of 1,025 adults (2/20-22/26) to measure Americans’ views on several key public policy issues dominating today’s debate. This research includes a report on artificial intelligence, data center construction, corporate mergers, domestic manufacturing, and national defense investment.

The findings provide a clear snapshot of where the nation currently stands, highlighting both areas of bipartisan agreement and emerging fault lines that could shape policy conversations in the months ahead during a highly combative election season.

PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR WAR SHOWS SHARP BREAK FROM PAST CONFLICTS

Polling in the days following President Donald Trump’s decision to launch U.S. strikes against Iran shows significantly weaker public backing than at the outset of most previous American conflicts. Surveys indicate that a majority of Americans currently oppose the attacks, though levels of support vary widely, from 27% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll to about 50% in a Fox News poll , suggesting public opinion is still forming as more details emerge.

Even the highest levels of support recorded so far remain well below the early “rally” backing typically seen at the start of major wars such as World War II, the Korean War, or the Iraq War. The muted response highlights a more skeptical public toward new overseas military engagements, potentially shaping the political environment as the conflict unfolds and the 2026 midterm elections approach. Read More.

HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

Southern Special Elections Offer Early Clues for 2026 Midterms

Voters in Mississippi and Georgia headed to the polls in closely watched special elections that could provide early signals about voter sentiment heading into the 2026 midterm cycle. In Georgia, a crowded special election is underway to replace former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in the state’s 14th Congressional District, with more than a dozen candidates competing and a runoff likely if no one clears 50%. The race is drawing national attention as a test of former President Donald Trump’s influence within the Republican base.

Meanwhile in Mississippi, primary and special elections for congressional and legislative seats are giving both parties a chance to gauge turnout and enthusiasm in a reliably Republican state. While neither contest is expected to dramatically shift party control, strategists are watching the results closely for signs of generational change within the Democratic coalition and how strongly Republican voters respond to Trump-aligned candidates, potential indicators of broader dynamics that could shape the 2026 midterms. Read More.

Early Primaries Signal Unsteady Ground for Incumbents

The first round of 2026 primary elections is revealing a volatile political environment for incumbents, with several high-profile races forcing sitting members into runoffs or ending their congressional careers altogether. The dynamics were especially visible in Texas, the first state to redraw congressional maps last year, where shifting districts and ideological divides are reshaping several contests.

In the state’s primaries, Rep. Dan Crenshaw was defeated by state Rep. Steve Toth after facing criticism from the party’s right flank and entering the race without an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Several other races are headed to runoffs, including a Dallas-area contest between former Rep. Colin Allred and Rep. Julie Johnson, as well as a Houston-area Democratic battle between longtime Rep. Al Green and freshman Rep. Christian Menefee. Outside Texas, North Carolina Rep. Valerie Foushee narrowly defeated progressive challenger Nida Allam after more than $1 million in outside spending, highlighting ideological tensions within the Democratic Party as well. Together, the results suggest both parties may face increasingly competitive primaries that could reshape the political landscape heading into the 2026 midterms. Read More.

California Rep. Kevin Kiley Leaves GOP to Run as Independent

Rep. Kevin Kiley announced he is leaving the Republican Party and will serve as an independent while seeking reelection in a newly redrawn Sacramento-area congressional district. The move comes after California’s mid-decade redistricting placed Kiley in a more Democratic-leaning seat, prompting him to run without a party label in an effort to broaden his appeal to moderate voters.

Although Kiley will continue caucusing with Republicans to maintain committee assignments, his party switch slightly narrows the GOP’s already thin House majority and underscores how redistricting is reshaping the political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms. The change leaves the House with a 217–214 Republican majority and one independent, highlighting how even small shifts in party alignment could have outsized implications for House control. Read More.

Polling At A Glance

Polling :
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 47.0 Dem - 42.6 GOP (D +4.4)

On this day in:
2022: 46.1 GOP - 42.8 Dem (R+3.3)
2018: 45.9 Dem - 37.1 GOP (D+8.8)

Retirements

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House.

Tracking Historic Congressional retirements

An unusually large number of members of Congress have announced plans to retire or seek other offices ahead of the 2026 midterms, putting the 119th Congress on pace for one of the highest levels of turnover in decades. More than 10% of the House has already said they will not seek reelection, with slightly more Republicans than Democrats departing. The exits include long-serving lawmakers and are driven by factors such as redistricting changes, opportunities to run for higher office, and the challenging political environment ahead of the midterms. The wave of retirements is expected to create dozens of open-seat races that could play a major role in determining control of the House. Read More.

Redistricting

Virginia Dispute Tests Limits of Mid-Cycle Redistricting

Several Republican-led counties in Virginia are challenging a proposed April referendum tied to redistricting, arguing the process used by state lawmakers may violate the state constitution. Local officials claim the measure, part of a broader effort to potentially redraw congressional districts before the 2026 midterms, was improperly advanced during a special legislative session and should be blocked until the courts rule on its legality. The dispute reflects the intensifying national battle over mid-decade redistricting and control of House seats ahead of the next election cycle. Read More.

SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

Retirements

So far, 10 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.

Texas Senate Primary Sets Up High-Stakes GOP Runoff

Texas’ 2026 Senate race is emerging as one of the most closely watched contests of the cycle, with incumbent Sen. John Cornyn facing a major primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The Republican contest reflects deep ideological and strategic divisions within the party, as conservative activists push for a more combative candidate while establishment figures argue Cornyn is better positioned to hold the seat in November. On the Democratic side, state Rep. James Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett to secure the nomination.

The race is expected to draw significant national attention and outside spending, with $110 million already spent, serving as an early test of how internal GOP dynamics could shape candidate selection in key states. While Texas remains a Republican-leaning state, the intensity of the primary underscores how competitive intraparty battles are becoming an increasingly important factor in shaping the broader 2026 Senate landscape. Read More.

Daines’ Last-Minute Retirement Scrambles Montana Senate Race

Sen. Steve Daines stunned Washington and Montana Republicans by withdrawing from his reelection bid just minutes before the state’s filing deadline, clearing the way for former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme to enter the race. Alme filed shortly before the deadline and quickly received backing from former President Donald Trump, fueling criticism that the timing effectively blocked other potential GOP challengers from competing for the seat.

The maneuver has drawn backlash from some Republicans and an independent candidate who argue the move limited voter choice by effectively installing a preferred successor. The sudden exit also adds to the unusually high number of Senate retirements this cycle and highlights how late-breaking strategic decisions can reshape candidate fields and influence competitive dynamics ahead of the 2026 midterms. Read More.

Polling At A Glance

Recent Polls

Emerson (GA General): Ossoff (D-i) 48, Collins (R) 43
Emerson (GA General): Ossoff (D-i) 47, Carter (R) 44
Emerson (GA General): Ossoff (D-i) 49, Dooley (R) 41
Emerson (GA GOP Primary): Collins 30, Carter 16, Dooley 10
Pan Atlantic (ME Dem Primary): Platner 46, Mills 39, Costello 4, LaFlamme 0
Quantus Insights (ME Dem Primary): Platner 43, Mills 38 [Note: Quantus did not read the other 2 candidates as an option]
Pan Atlantic (ME General): Platner (D) 44, Collins (R-i) 40
Quantus Insights (ME General): Platner (D) 49, Collins (R-i) 42
Pan Atlantic (ME General): Collins (R-i) 44, Mills (D) 44
Quantus Insights (ME General): Collins (R-i) 45, Mills (D) 43

IN THE STATES

Citizenship Question Fight Reignites Redistricting Power Debate

The next major front in the redistricting fight may focus on who is counted when states draw their legislative districts. The reemergence of a proposed census citizenship question is reopening a major legal and political fight over how legislative districts should be drawn. Some conservatives argue districts should be based on citizens or eligible voters rather than total population, while critics warn the shift would reduce representation in immigrant-heavy communities. The outcome could reshape future redistricting battles by changing how political representation is calculated nationwide. Read More.

EMERGING NARRATIVES

Rising Gas Prices Complicate GOP Messaging as Iran Conflict Escalates

Republicans are increasingly grappling with rising gasoline prices tied to tensions with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane that handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. Escalating conflict in the region has reduced tanker traffic and driven oil prices higher, pushing gasoline prices upward in the U.S. and creating new economic pressure as the 2026 midterm elections approach.

The situation presents a political challenge for the GOP and the Trump administration, which has emphasized energy independence and lower fuel costs as key economic messages. While the U.S. produces large amounts of domestic oil, global market disruptions, especially at chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, can still drive prices higher for American consumers. As energy prices rise and inflation concerns persist, Republicans are balancing national security arguments against Iran with the political risks of higher costs at the pump ahead of the midterms. Read More.

AI Data Center Power Demand Creates New Political Challenge

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure is creating a growing energy challenge for the Trump administration as the 2026 midterms approach. Tech companies are racing to build massive AI data centers across the U.S., but the facilities require enormous amounts of electricity—often comparable to the demand of small cities. Utilities warn that the surge in AI investment could strain the power grid in some regions, forcing policymakers to confront difficult choices about how quickly to expand energy generation and transmission capacity.

The issue is increasingly spilling into national politics as leaders weigh how to meet AI-driven power demand while balancing climate goals and energy policy priorities. Republicans argue the U.S. must expand domestic energy production—including fossil fuels—to remain competitive with China in AI development, while many Democrats emphasize scaling renewables and modernizing the grid. As AI becomes a central economic and national security priority, decisions about how to power the industry are emerging as a new policy and political fault line heading into 2026. Read More.

Trump Presses House Republicans to Advance SAVE Act

President Donald Trump is urging House Republicans to prioritize the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act (SAVE Act), a proposal that would require proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote in federal elections. Speaking to GOP lawmakers during their annual retreat, Trump warned he would be reluctant to sign other legislation unless Congress advances the bill, elevating it as a central legislative priority for the administration.

The measure has become a key Republican messaging issue on election integrity ahead of the 2026 midterms, with supporters arguing it would strengthen voter eligibility requirements. Democrats and voting rights groups, however, have raised concerns that stricter documentation rules could make voter registration more difficult for some Americans, setting up a likely partisan fight in Congress. Read More.

ON THE HORIZON

Upcoming Elections:

March 17:
Illinois

March 31:
Arkansas Runoff

April 16:
NJ-11 Special General

AxInsights Survey: Americans Are Open to Innovation, But Want Guardrails

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 15:42:58 GMT

AxAdvocacy–Ipsos Survey Highlights Public Views on AI, Data Centers, Corporate Mergers, and Domestic Manufacturing

AxAdvocacy recently partnered with Ipsos to conduct a national survey of 1,025 Americans from February 20–22, 2026, examining public attitudes toward emerging technology, corporate consolidation, and U.S. economic and national security policy. The survey carries a ±3.2% margin of error.

The results point to a pragmatic electorate. Americans remain open to innovation and economic growth, but they want guardrails that protect communities, jobs, and national security. Across several issue areas, from artificial intelligence to corporate mergers, voters consistently evaluate policy through the lens of economic impact and national resilience.

Key takeaway : Americans support innovation, but economic impact and community effects shape their views.

Data Centers: Awareness Is Growing, but Energy Concerns Dominate

As artificial intelligence expands rapidly, public awareness of the data centers required to support it is increasing.

According to the survey, 61% of Americans say they are familiar with data centers, including 21% who report being very familiar and 40% who say they are somewhat familiar. Another 37% report they are not familiar with the issue.

While awareness is relatively high, voters also express clear concerns about the local impacts associated with large-scale data center development.

58% worry about strain on local infrastructure
58% worry about increased local energy prices
38% cite noise or land-use concerns
38% worry about environmental impacts
35% express concern about foreign ownership of data centers

Only eight percent (8%) of respondents say they would have no concerns about data centers being built in their communities.

Artificial Intelligence: Opportunity Tempered by Skepticism

Public attitudes toward artificial intelligence reflect a mixture of optimism and caution.

Just 13% of Americans view AI primarily as an opportunity, while 34% see it mainly as a risk. The largest share (42%) believe that AI represents both opportunity and risk equally.

39% say an AI regulatory 'sandbox' is a good idea
22% say it is a bad idea
37% are unsure

When voters are asked to choose between prioritizing innovation or limiting risk:

69% say AI should be regulated early to limit risks
12% say innovation should be prioritized even if risks remain
17% remain unsure

When asked who should lead the regulation of artificial intelligence:

50% say federal and state governments
18% say the private sector
30% are unsure

69% of Americans say AI should be regulated early to limit risks.

Corporate Mergers: Jobs and Prices Drive Public Opinion

Public attitudes toward corporate mergers are strongly influenced by perceived economic consequences.

When asked which factor matters most when evaluating corporate mergers:

33% cite impact on jobs
29% cite impact on prices
8% cite global competitiveness
6% cite national security
5% cite stock prices and shareholder value

These results suggest voters evaluate corporate consolidation primarily through the lens of household economics rather than investor outcomes.

A majority of respondents (53%) believe mergers involving critical infrastructure should face stricter regulatory review than mergers in other industries.

Domestic Manufacturing and National Security

The survey also finds overwhelming support for strengthening domestic industrial capacity.

When asked how important it is for the United States to manufacture critical materials domestically:

55% say it is very important
33% say it is somewhat important

In total, almost nine in ten Americans (89%) believe domestic manufacturing of critical materials is important.

Implications for Public Affairs

Across the issues examined in the survey, one theme emerges consistently: Americans approach policy debates with a pragmatic focus on economic and national security outcomes.

Voters are broadly supportive of innovation and technological progress, but they also expect safeguards that protect communities, strengthen domestic production, and prevent negative impacts on jobs and prices.

For organizations engaged in public policy debates, the findings reinforce the importance of framing policy discussions around economic impact, national competitiveness, and community outcomes.

The Ipsos survey offers a snapshot of the priorities likely to shape policy conversations in Washington and across the country in the years ahead.

Ashlee Stephenson

President

AxAdvocacy National Survey

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 16:30:32 GMT

We're pleased to share the attached national polling deck from AxAdvocacy’s latest research partnership with Ipsos.

This research offers valuable insight as stakeholders navigate legislative, regulatory, and strategic communications strategies.

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 21:10:57 GMT

AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS to break down why all eyes are on Texas, and why they’ll stay there through November.

There is a lot of coverage on Texas that will not end tomorrow, it won't end in 10 weeks, it's going to take us all the way to the November general election. Why is that? Democrats desperately want to start to flip this state to make it blue for an electoral college advantage. Republicans know they need to hang on to it, because it doesn't look like a California, for example, is going to come back their way anytime soon. This will be a political science textbook, of primaries, runoffs, and then a really big general election.

Watch the full interview:

Ashlee Rich Stephenson

President

AxIndex, Edition 4

Wed, 25 Feb 2026 17:28:01 GMT

SNAPSHOT

Our Top 3:

1) Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Reignites Trade and Cost Debates: The Supreme Court’s decision limiting presidential tariff authority reasserts congressional control over trade policy and introduces new uncertainty around future tariffs and supply chains. By elevating trade actions into a separation-of-powers and consumer cost debate, the ruling is likely to pull tariffs back into campaign messaging, reinforcing affordability narratives and sharpening contrasts over economic leadership.

2) Big Tech Policy Money Is Rewriting Campaign Agendas: Outside groups are pouring millions into advertising and political activity tied to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency policy, elevating emerging tech regulation from a niche debate to a mainstream campaign issue. Competing narratives frame oversight as consumer protection versus a threat to innovation, and the influx of industry spending is pressuring candidates to define clear positions early.

3) Mid-Cycle Redistricting Fight Moves to the Courts: Legal fights over congressional maps are intensifying in nearly a dozen states, with challenges and potential redraws in places like Virginia, New York, and Utah creating uncertainty just months before ballots are finalized. At the center is Louisiana v. Callais, a Supreme Court case that could alter Voting Rights Act protections governing minority-majority districts, while state courts weigh changes that could shift individual seats. Together, these rulings could redraw the battlefield late in the cycle and play a decisive role in determining control of the House.

National Sentiment Tracking

NIMBY RISING: DATA CENTERS TRIGGER LOCAL CONCERNS DESPITE BROAD INDIFFERENCE

A new POLITICO/Public First poll finds most Americans remain unfamiliar with data centers and largely neutral about their expansion nationwide, but support softens when projects are proposed locally. While respondents associate facilities with economic growth and job creation, concerns rise around electricity demand, water use, and community impacts when development occurs nearby.

The findings suggest public opinion is still fluid: the data center boom tied to AI and cloud computing is not yet politically polarized, but rising energy costs and infrastructure strain could quickly shift sentiment. Read More.

The poll surveyed 2,093 U.S. adults from Jan. 16 to 19, and has an overall margin of error of ±2 percentage points. Smaller subgroups have higher margins of error. Source: The POLITICO Poll with Public First Anna Wiederkehr/POLITICO

ONGOING AFFORDABILITY ANXIETY REMAINS THE DOMINANT CONCERNS FOR AMERICANS

A new YouGov–MarketWatch poll finds more than 80% of Americans say affordability has not improved, with nearly half saying it has worsened and only a small share reporting improvement. Rising costs for groceries, insurance, housing, and healthcare continue to strain household budgets, even as broader economic indicators stabilize.

Moreover, two-thirds of respondents say Washington is not taking affordability seriously, underscoring persistent frustration with political leaders and reinforcing cost-of-living pressures as the dominant voter concern heading into the election cycle. Read More.

HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

DEMOCRATS BUILD EARLY FUNDRAISING EDGE

Democratic challengers are significantly outraising Republican challengers in the most competitive House districts, according to a Reuters analysis of campaign finance reports. In roughly 30 battleground races, Democratic candidates targeting GOP-held seats raised about $50 million combined, more than double the roughly $20 million raised by Republican challengers in Democratic-held districts.

The early financial advantage gives Democrats momentum as they seek to flip the few seats needed to reclaim the House majority, though incumbents from both parties continue to dominate overall fundraising, and outside spending remains a major wildcard. Read More.

Polling At A Glance

Polling :
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 47.5 Dem - 42.7 GOP (D +4.8)

On this day in:

2022: 45.3 GOP - 42.0 Dem (R+3.3)
2018: 45.1 Dem - 37.1 GOP (D+8.0)

Retirements

Notable retirements from Congress are beginning to come out as the election year gets underway. The current total sits at 51 incumbent members (21 Democrats / 30 Republicans) of the House who have announced they are not seeking re-election.

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House.

Redistricting

MID-CYCLE REDISTRICTING FIGHT MOVES TO THE COURTS

Legal battles over congressional maps are accelerating across nearly a dozen states, with court rulings now poised to shape the House majority just months before the election. Lawsuits and redraw efforts in states including Missouri, Florida, Virginia, New York, Utah, and Wisconsin are creating uncertainty for campaigns and election officials as primary season approaches.

The most consequential case, Louisiana v. Callais, could reshape national maps by revisiting Voting Rights Act protections that influence majority-minority districts. While a decision is expected later this year, states are preparing for rapid redraws that could alter district lines on short notice. Read More.

UTAH REDISTRICTING RULING KEEPS DEMOCRATIC OPPORTUNITY ALIVE

SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

Retirements

So far, 9 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.

TEXAS GOP SENATE PRIMARY INTENSIFIES AS EARLY VOTING BEGINS

Early voting is underway in Texas’s high-stakes Republican Senate primary, where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces strong challenges from Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt in what could be the toughest race of Cornyn’s career. Recent polling shows Paxton leading with roughly 38% support, followed by Cornyn and Hunt, with a runoff widely expected if no candidate secures a majority.

The contest has grown increasingly combative, with candidates attacking one another’s records and positioning themselves as the strongest conservative voice, while heavy advertising spending and national attention underscore the seat’s importance.

Why it matters: The primary highlights ideological divisions within the Texas GOP and could shape general-election competitiveness in a critical Senate race, making the outcome consequential for national party strategy and Senate control. Read More.

Polling At A Glance

Recent Polls
Change Research (NC General) Cooper (D) 50, Whatley (R) 40
Quantus Insights (GA GOP Primary) Collins 36, Carter 11, Dooley 9

IN THE STATES

MICHIGAN SPECIAL ELECTION DRAWS NATIONAL ATTENTION

Democrats are pouring resources into the May special election for Michigan’s 35th state Senate district, viewing the race as critical to maintaining control of the chamber and as an early test of voter sentiment ahead of the midterms. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has labeled it a “spotlight” contest, underscoring its strategic importance.

The outcome could shape legislative power in Lansing for the remainder of the year while offering an early signal of turnout dynamics and party momentum heading into 2026. Read More.

EMERGING NARRATIVES

SUPREME COURT TARIFF RULING RESHAPES TRADE AUTHORITY

The Supreme Court struck down the administration’s sweeping global tariffs, ruling the president exceeded emergency powers and reaffirming that Congress holds authority over tariff policy. The decision disrupts a central economic tool, raises questions about refunds on collected duties, and signals that future trade actions will face greater legal scrutiny even as the White House explores alternative tariff pathways.

Tariffs and their impact on consumer costs and supply chains remain politically salient, but future actions are likely to be more contentious and procedurally constrained. Read More.

SPECIAL-INTEREST MONEY IS SHAPING THE TECH POLICY AGENDA

Outside spending tied to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency policy is rapidly scaling ahead of the midterms, signaling a new phase of issue advocacy centered on emerging technologies. Millions of dollars in ads are seeking to shape public opinion on AI regulation, with competing campaigns framing oversight as either essential consumer protection or a threat to U.S. innovation and competitiveness.

At the same time, the cryptocurrency industry has amassed a massive political war chest, approaching $200 million, to support candidates aligned with its regulatory priorities and oppose critics, underscoring its growing influence in congressional races.

Technology policy is becoming a major battleground for outside spending, with well-funded industry groups working to shape both election outcomes and the regulatory environment. As AI governance and digital asset rules move toward the center of economic policy debates, special-interest investment is accelerating the nationalization of these issues and elevating them as defining campaign narratives in 2026.

ON THE HORIZON

Upcoming Elections:

March 3:
Arkansas, North Carolina, Texas

March 10:
Mississippi

March 17:
Illinois

March 31:
Arkansas Runoff

April 16:
NJ-11 Special General

AxIndex, Edition 3

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 21:35:10 GMT

SNAPSHOT

Our Top 3:

1) Turnout, Not Territory, Dominates Early 2026 Signals: Recent special elections, most notably in Texas, are underscoring a shift in how early-cycle strength is being measured. Low-salience contests are increasingly decided by enthusiasm and base turnout, not persuasion, with Democrats pointing to overperformance as a sign of momentum and Republicans quietly flagging turnout drop-off and runoff fatigue as growing risks.

2) Redistricting Whack-a-Mole Continues in 2026: Redistricting is no longer a background legal issue but an active 2026 battleground. With the Supreme Court allowing California’s revised congressional map to proceed and new efforts unfolding in Virginia, New York, and Maryland, control of House lines is once again shaping the near-term political landscape.

3) Senate Races Begin to Nationalize Through Primaries and Fundraising: Early Senate races in Texas and Georgia are increasingly framed through national lenses, driven by intraparty competition, endorsement uncertainty, and early fundraising gaps. Prolonged Republican primaries are emerging as a potential vulnerability as Democrats work to consolidate earlier around general-election messaging.

National Sentiment Tracking

ECONOMIC SENTIMENT REMAINS A DRAG ONE YEAR INTO TRUMP’S SECOND TERM

A new Pew Research Center survey finds that Americans continue to hold broadly negative views of the economy one year into President Trump’s second term. Roughly seven in ten adults rate economic conditions as only fair or poor, with concerns driven primarily by the rising cost of everyday necessities like food, housing, and health care. While Republicans are significantly more likely than Democrats to view the economy positively, overall pessimism remains widespread, and expectations for the future are mixed. Notably, a majority of voters oppose major tariff increases, signaling skepticism toward trade policies that could further raise consumer prices.

HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

PROGRESSIVE CANDIDATE WINS NJ-11 DEM PRIMARY

In New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District special Democratic primary, progressive activist Analilia Mejia has emerged victorious, with former Rep. Tom Malinowski conceding after a close contest. Mejia, backed by prominent progressives including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, prevailed in a crowded field to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill and will now face Republican Joe Hathaway in the April 16 special general election. Read More.

Polling At A Glance

Polling :
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 47.7 Dem - 42.5 GOP (D +5.2)

On this day in:
2022: 47.2 GOP - 43.6 Dem (R+3.6)
2018: 45.1 Dem - 38.4 GOP (D+6.7)

Retirements

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House.

CONGRESSIONAL RETIREMENTS HIT HIGHEST LEVEL IN DECADE

A record number of U.S. lawmakers are choosing not to seek re-election or are stepping down early as the 2026 midterms approach. As of early February, at least 60 members of Congress, including 51 House members and nine senators, have announced they won’t run again, a level of turnover that outpaces prior cycles and marks the most retirements this century at this point in the calendar.

The wave of departures is reshaping the electoral landscape by creating more open, competitive seats. The trend is especially consequential for Republicans, given their narrow House majority, while Democratic exits point to generational turnover and the end of long tenures, collectively signaling internal pressures and raising the stakes in the fight for control of Congress. Read More.

GEORGIA GOP REP. LOUDERMILK TO RETIRE

Georgia Republican Rep. Barry Loudermilk announced he will not seek re-election in 2026, adding another House seat to the growing wave of retirements ahead of the midterms. A five-term member and Trump ally, Loudermilk’s exit opens Georgia’s 11th District, a solid GOP seat, to a competitive nomination and adds to the churn reshaping the House field. Read More.

NV-02 REP. AMODEI (R) TO RETIRE

Nevada Republican Rep. Mark Amodei announced he will not seek re-election in 2026, opening up the state’s 2nd Congressional District and adding to the number of Republicans leaving Congress. Amodei’s departure makes NV-02, a reliably Republican seat, an open contest, drawing interest from multiple GOP contenders while Democrats assess long-shot opportunities in the state's lone Republican district. Read More.

Redistricting

VIRGINIA DEMOCRATS SEEK TO MAKE GAINS WITH PROPOSED HOUSE MAP

SUPREME COURT GREENLIGHTS NEW CALIFORNIA MAP

The U.S. Supreme Court, in an unsigned order, allowed California’s revised congressional map to take effect, rejecting challenges from Republican voters who argued the plan diluted their influence. The ruling clears the way for Democrats to use the new map in 2026, a move expected to make several districts more competitive and potentially put long-held Republican seats in play. Read More.

SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

Retirements

So far, 9 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.

SUSAN COLLINS OFFICIALLY ENTERS 2026 SENATE RACE

Republican Sen. Susan Collins announced she is running for a sixth term in the U.S. Senate, launching what is expected to be one of the most closely watched and competitive Senate contests of 2026. Collins, a longtime centrist lawmaker in a state that leans Democratic in presidential elections, is framing her campaign around experience and bipartisan problem-solving, even as she faces criticism over immigration enforcement and mounting challenges from Democrats including Gov. Janet Mills and progressive candidate Graham Platner. Read More.

DEMOCRATS HAVE THE FUNDRAISING EDGE IN KEY SENATE RACESSUSAN COLLINS OFFICIALLY ENTERS 2026 SENATE RACE

New FEC filings show Democratic Senate candidates holding an early fundraising edge over Republicans in several marquee 2026 battleground contests, including Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and New Hampshire, as the fight for control of the chamber takes shape. In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff reported a substantial haul that dwarfs his GOP rivals, and Democratic contenders in open and competitive states are also pulling in larger sums, a dynamic that could bolster both defensive and offensive Senate strategies heading into the midterms. Read More.

Paxton, Crockett Ahead in Polling Heading into Primary Season

New polling in Texas underscores continued volatility in both parties’ U.S. Senate primaries. On the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton holds an early edge over Sen. John Cornyn, with no candidate on track to clear 50% and a runoff increasingly likely. Democrats face a similarly competitive contest between Reps. Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, setting up a nomination fight that could shape messaging, resources, and turnout dynamics well ahead of the general election. Read More.

Polling At A Glance

Recent Polls
The Alabama Poll (AL GOP Primary): Marshall 26, Moore 17, Hudson 8, Walker 4, Murphy 1
JL Partners (TX GOP Primary): Paxton 27, Cornyn 26, Hunt 26
University of Houston (TX GOP Primary): Paxton 38, Cornyn 31, Hunt 17
JL Partners (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Paxton 41, Cornyn 40
University of Houston (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Paxton 51, Cornyn 40
JL Partners (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Hunt 44, Paxton 34
University of Houston (TX Primary Runoff): Paxton 56, Hunt 33
JL Partners (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Hunt 44, Cornyn 33
University of Houston (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Cornyn 46, Hunt 39
University of Houston (TX Dem Primary): Crockett 47, Talarico 39, Hassan 2
University of Houston (TX General): Paxton 45, Crockett 43, Brown 4
University of Houston (TX General): Paxton 46, Talarico 44, Brown 3
University of Houston (TX General): Cornyn 45, Crockett 43, Brown 5
University of Houston (TX General): Cornyn 44, Talarico 43, Brown 5
University of Houston (TX General): Hunt 46, Crockett 43, Brown 3
University of Houston (TX General): Hunt 46, Talarico 42, Brown 3
Quantus (KY GOP Primary): Barr 28, Cameron 27, Morris 17
Emerson (KY GOP Primary): Barr 24, Cameron 21, Morris 14
Emerson (KY Dem Primary): Booker 30, McGrath 19, Stevenson 4, Forsythe 1

IN THE STATES

DEMOCRAT FLIPS GOP STATE SENATE SEAT IN TEXAS

In a major special election upset, Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss in Texas State Senate District 9, a reliably Republican seat in Tarrant County that President Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. Rehmet won the January 31 runoff by about 57%–43%, an outcome Democrats are calling a wake-up call and a signal of competitive energy in conservative territory ahead of November’s midterms. Read More.

On SiriusXM POTUS, AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson unpacked the lessons from the Texas special runoff and explained what the upset means for Republicans navigating a high-stakes 2026 cycle.

LISTEN HERE

EMERGING NARRATIVES

PROGRESSIVE CANDIDATE WINS NJ-11 DEM PRIMARY

ON THE HORIZON

Upcoming Elections:

March 3:
Arkansas, North Carolina, Texas

March 10:
Mississippi

March 17:
Illinois

March 31:
Arkansas Runoff

April 16:
NJ-11 Special General

From the Hill to the Firm: Three Truths about What Moves Congress

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 21:16:12 GMT

Congratulations to Senior Vice President Jeff Billman on one year at AxAdvocacy! Below, he shares his perspective on the shift from Capitol Hill to a multi-client lobbying firm.

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 22:20:08 GMT

Special elections are special, simply put.

In the Texas race, the jungle primary produced a Republican majority when two GOP candidates collectively won over half the vote. But that advantage didn’t carry through to the runoff, where an enthusiasm gap led Democrats to over-perform in the turnout game. The takeaway: in off-cycle elections, turnout dynamics can matter more than territory.

Listen to AxAdvocacy Preside nt Ashlee Rich Stephenson break down what we learned from the Texas special runoff.

Watch the interview:

Ashlee Rich Stephenson

President

AxIndex, Edition 2

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 20:42:47 GMT

Our Top 3:

1) Backlash Over Federal Immigration Enforcement Intensifies: National outrage has surged after two fatal shootings by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis, complicating the Trump administration’s immigration strategy and turning ICE enforcement into a central campaign issue.

2) More Redistricting Moves Continue to Pop: Republicans’ appeal of a court ruling throwing out New York City’s only GOP-held House district comes as Democrats simultaneously push mid-decade redistricting efforts in Maryland and pursue a ballot move in Virginia to reclaim map-drawing power.

3) High Profile Names Shake Up Senate Races: The 2026 map is drawing marquee names as Julia Letlow, Michele Tafoya, and Alexander Vindman launch Senate bids in their respective states, signaling both parties’ intent to nationalize key races early and reshaping the battleground well ahead of November.

National Sentiment Tracking

Even Before MN Shooting, Voters Overwhelmingly Disapprove of ICE

A new New York Times / Siena University poll shows deep public unease with how the Trump administration is handling immigration enforcement: while about half of voters approve of President Trump’s deportation policies and his handling of the U.S.–Mexico border, a substantial majority disapprove of Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s job performance and say ICE’s tactics have “gone too far,” with 63% disapproving of the agency’s work and 61% saying its approach is excessive, including many independents and some Republicans, reflecting widespread concern over interior raids and recent fatal encounters with federal agents.

House Highlights

Polling At A Glance

Polling
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 45.7 Dem - 41.2 GOP (D +4.5)
On this day in:
2022: 47.1 GOP - 43.0 Dem (R+4.1)
2018: 46.7 Dem - 38.8 GOP (D+7.9)

Cook Ratings
CA-13 Toss Up to Lean D
CA-25 Likely D to Solid D
CA-47 Likely D to Solid D
CO-05 Solid R to Likely R
CT-05 Likely D to Solid D
FL-07 Solid R to Likely R
IA-03 Lean R to Toss Up
IL-17 Likely D to Solid D
MI-03 Likely D to Solid D
NM-02 Toss Up to Lean D
NY-04 Toss Up to Lean D
NY-17 Lean R to Toss Up
NY-18 Likely D to Solid D
NY-22 Likely D to Solid D
OH-09 Lean R to Toss Up
PA-17 Likely D to Solid D
TN-05 Solid R to Likely R
TX-34 Lean R to Toss Up

Retirements

Notable retirements from Congress are beginning to come out as the election year gets underway. The current total sits at 49 incumbent members (21 Democrats / 28 Republicans) of the House who have announced they are not seeking re-election.

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House.

Florida Republican Vern Buchanan to retire from Congress

Vern Buchanan’s decision not to seek reelection adds to a growing list of Florida Republican departures. Buchanan, the No. 2 Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, is leaving behind a district that backed Trump by more than 15 points in 2024, making the GOP primary the decisive contest and the eventual Republican nominee the clear favorite in November. Read More.

Redistricting

GOP Appeals Ruling Tossing NYC’s Only Republican House Seat

Republicans have appealed to New York’s highest court after a judge invalidated the boundaries of the state’s only Republican-held congressional district, Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ Staten Island–Brooklyn seat, finding that the current map dilutes Black and Hispanic voters’ power and ordering the state’s independent redistricting panel to redraw lines by Feb. 6; the legal battle highlights broader national fights over gerrymandering and control of the U.S. House as both parties jockey for advantage ahead of the 2026 elections. Read More.

Redistricting heats up in Maryland and Virginia

In Maryland, Democratic Gov. Wes Moore’s Redistricting Advisory Commission has advanced a proposed mid-decade redraw of the state’s congressional map, including changes aimed at reshaping the 1st District to be more favorable for Democrats, as state leaders consider how hard to push back against Republican map gains elsewhere. In Virginia, Democratic lawmakers have moved a constitutional amendment to the April 2026 ballot that would let the legislature redraw U.S. House districts mid-decade, a bid to counter recent GOP-friendly maps and potentially net more Democratic seats. Both states’ efforts reflect strategic moves in the broader fight over control of the U.S. House ahead of the 2026 midterms. Read More.

Senate Highlights

Retirements

So far, 9 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.

Julia Letlow Enters Louisiana Senate Race

Rep. Julia Letlow has entered the Louisiana Republican primary for U.S. Senate, challenging incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy after receiving a Trump endorsement encouraging her to run. Letlow, who represents Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District, framed her candidacy as a call for a more consistent conservative voice and leaned heavily into Trump’s backing as she launched her campaign.

Cassidy, a two-term senator, remains supported by Senate GOP leadership but continues to face backlash from the party’s right flank over his vote to convict Trump during the second impeachment trial. With Louisiana solidly Republican, the May GOP primary is expected to be the decisive contest, and Letlow’s entry makes the race one of the most closely watched intraparty battles of the 2026 cycle. Read More.

Former NFL Sideline Star Enters Minnesota Senate Race

Former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya has entered the Republican primary for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, giving national GOP leaders a high-profile recruit in a state Democrats have long dominated but where Republicans see a rare pickup opportunity; her candidacy — backed by key GOP figures — intensifies a crowded primary and signals the party’s intent to seriously contest a race that could be critical to the fight for Senate control in 2026. Read More.

Former impeachment witness Alex Vindman Joins FL Senate Dem Primary

Retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, best known for testifying against President Trump during the 2019 Ukraine impeachment, has announced his Democratic bid for the U.S. Senate in Florida’s 2026 special election, setting up a high-profile challenge to Republican Sen. Ashley Moody as Democrats eye a foothold in a state that has trended GOP in recent cycles. Read More.

Polling at a glance

Recent Polls
UNH (NH General): Pappas (D) 50, Sununu (R) 45
UNH (NH General): Pappas (D) 52, Brown (R) 42
UNH (NH GOP Primary): Sununu 48, Brown 25
UNH (NH Dem Primary): Pappas 65, Manzur 11, Sullivan 2
Remington (AL GOP Primary): Marshall 26, Moore 13, Hudson 10, Walker 2, Murphy 1
Carolina Forward/Change Res. (NC General): Cooper 47, Whatley 42
TIPP (NC General): Cooper 48, Whatley 24

In the States

More State Legislative Chambers Seen as Competitive in 2026 Midterms

A new Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysis finds 15 state legislative chambers across the country are competitive heading into the 2026 midterms, more than at a similar point in the 2022 or 2024 cycles, with Republicans defending more chambers than Democrats and nine rated as toss-ups, highlighting an unusually dynamic battlefield at the state level where control of legislatures could shift and even break GOP supermajorities in key states this fall. Read More.

Emerging Narratives

Enforcement Reshapes the 2026 Immigration Narrative

The Minneapolis shooting involving federal immigration agents has prompted a noticeable recalibration in the immigration debate, with the White House dispatching senior adviser Tom Homan and signaling a more measured approach to enforcement messaging amid heightened public scrutiny, while the administration continues to defend its broader border strategy. Recent events have shifted attention toward how immigration policies are carried out, giving Democrats an opportunity to emphasize oversight and restraint, while Republicans work to refine how they talk about enforcement as the 2026 campaign environment takes shape around public confidence and trust. Read more.

On the Horizon

Upcoming Elections:

TX-18 Runoff: January 31 (Early Voting begins January 21)

NJ-11 Primary: February 5

NJ-11 General: April 16

2026 Midterms: November 3

What’s ahead for Biotech, Biopharma, and MedTech in 2026?

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 21:18:40 GMT

Our healthcare policy expert, Kelly McElhaney, breaks down how HHS oversight, FDA guidance, and national biotechnology strategy will reshape regulatory expectations and what innovators need to do now to stay ahead.

AxIndex, Edition 1

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 00:43:34 GMT

Our Top 3:

1) Redistricting Chaos Creeps Into 2026 Planning: Ongoing redistricting battles in Wisconsin and Florida are creating uncertainty for House candidates as filing deadlines approach.

2) Economic Anxiety Ends 2025 On A Low Note: While inflation headlines have softened, voter frustration with the state of the economy sat at -33 at the end of the year, its lowest since July 2024.

3) Notable Retirements Are Beginning To Pop: A growing number of senior lawmakers in Washington have begun announcing plans to step aside, signaling early turnover ahead of 2026. At the state level, Tim Walz announced he will not seek reelection, a decision that follows a period of heightened scrutiny and controversy in Minnesota and sets off an open-seat race in a closely watched state with an open Senate seat for the Democrats to defend.

National Sentiment Tracking

Voters Still Concerned About Costs Over Everything Else

Compared with polling from last year, inflation and prices remain the top voter concern, though the share citing it as the single most important issue has softened modestly as inflation cools. Even with that dip, cost-related issues continue to crowd out all others: inflation (26%), healthcare (12%), and jobs and the economy (11%) together account for nearly half of voter concern. Immigration (10%) and civil rights (9%) remain on the list but are secondary, suggesting that voters are still filtering political debates through an affordability lens rather than ideological ones. Read More.

What This Means
For candidates and outside groups heading into 2026, economic framing is unavoidable. Even when talking about healthcare, immigration, or regulation, voters are looking for answers to how policies affect household costs, wages, and financial stability.

Voter Groups Shift In Support For Trump

A new Economist/YouGov poll covering January 2–5, 2026, finds mixed movement in President Donald Trump’s job approval: his standing improved among men and Hispanic voters compared with the prior week, while approval among Republicans and women declined. Despite those shifts within subgroups, Trump’s overall approval remains down nationally, reflecting broader voter dissatisfaction.

Then & now context matters. Today, Trump’s RealClearPolitics average sits at 43.8% approve / 52.6% disapprove (-8.8). On the same point in 2018, his approval was lower, and opposition was far deeper: 39.4% approve / 56.0% disapprove (-16.6). While approval is still down, the narrower gap today points to a sturdier base of support than during his first term.

Key takeaways:

Men & Hispanic voters: Trump’s approval ticked up in the latest numbers.
Republicans & women: Both groups showed declining support for his performance compared with recent polling.

Overall national picture: This nuanced movement highlights how demographic coalitions are shifting subtly and could influence messaging strategies for both parties in 2026.

Record Share of Americans Now Identify as Independents

A new Gallup poll finds that 45% of U.S. adults now identify as political independents, the highest level on record and above previous peaks of 43% in 2014, 2023, and 2024. Meanwhile, identification with the two major parties is evenly split, 27% Democrat and 27% Republican, meaning the independent bloc now dwarfs both party cores. Younger generations, especially Gen Z, are driving much of this growth in independent identity.

House Highlights

GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa Dies at 65

Representative Douglas LaMalfa, who diligently served California's 1st District for 13 years, passed away last week. LaMalfa, a fourth-generation rice farmer, was a champion for agriculture and wildfire prevention during his time in Congress.

With his passing, the Republicans' majority in the House shrank even further. The current split stands at 218-213. California will need to call a special election to replace LaMalfa, which could come as late as June. Read More.

Polling At A Glance

Polling
RCP Average Generic Ballot: Dem 46.2 – GOP 42.2 (D+4.0)
On this day in:
2022: GOP 42.8 – Dem 41.8 (R+1.0)
2018: Dem 48.3 – GOP 37.1 (D+11.2)

Cook Ratings
Changes:
WA-08: Likely D to Solid D

Retirements

Notable retirements from Congress are beginning to come out as the election year gets underway. The current total sits at 47 incumbent members (21 Democrats / 26 Republicans) of the House who have announced they are not seeking re-election.

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House.

Rep. Neal Dunn Announces Retirement

Rep. Neal Dunn announced he will not seek re-election to the U.S. House in 2026. Dunn served five terms representing Florida’s 2nd Congressional District. This decision creates an open seat in Florida’s 2nd District, which is rated an R+8. Read More.

Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) Announces Retirement

Rep. Hoyer, the longest-serving Democrat currently in the U.S. House, confirmed he will retire at the end of his term. He has represented Maryland's 5th District in the House since 1981 and served for decades in Democratic leadership roles. Read More.

Redistricting

AxAdvocacy has been tracking all the latest shifts in redistricting. Above is the latest redistricting update based on recent events and projections for the new year, not taking into consideration potential dynamic shifts, such as the outcome in the Voting Rights Act cases.

Florida to hold special redistricting session ahead of 2026 midterms

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has announced a special legislative session in late April 2026 for the state legislature to redraw the state’s congressional districts, a rare mid-decade redistricting effort aimed at reflecting population changes and potentially benefiting Republicans ahead of the November elections. Republicans could gain up to five seats under a new map. Read More.

Wisconsin redistricting fight may stretch past 2026 midterms

Two lawsuits challenging Wisconsin’s current congressional maps, which now favor Republican candidates, are moving through the courts, but recent hearings suggest they likely won't be resolved in time to change the districts for the November 2026 elections. One case’s attorneys argue new maps could be in place before next year’s vote, but judges signaled that a more extended timeline, potentially into 2027, is more realistic. That means current boundaries will probably remain for the upcoming midterms unless the court accelerates its schedule. Read More.

Senate Highlights

Retirements

So far, 9 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.

Mary Peltola Enters Alaska Senate Race, Boosting Democratic Hopes

Former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola officially announced her campaign for the 2026 U.S. Senate seat in Alaska, challenging two-term Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. Peltola, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, is pitching a populist platform centered on lowering costs and putting Alaska’s interests first. Her entry provides Democrats with one of their strongest recruits in a deeply Republican state, where Trump won by double digits in 2024, and elevates Alaska from a long shot to a plausibly competitive Senate contest in the fight for control of the chamber. Campaigns will first meet in a top-four ranked-choice primary in August, with the general election in November. Read More.

Walz Exit Could leave two open seats in MN

Gov. Tim Walz’s decision not to seek reelection is rippling across Minnesota politics, compounding instability in a state already facing an open U.S. Senate seat after Tina Smith announced her retirement. The shake-up has intensified speculation that Amy Klobuchar could enter the governor’s race, a move that would further scramble the Democratic field and force a rapid recalibration in both statewide contests. While Minnesota remains blue-leaning, overlapping open races, crowded primaries, and late-breaking candidate decisions are raising the risk of a more chaotic and competitive cycle than either party initially anticipated. Read More.

Polling at a glance

Recent Polls
Emerson: IL Dem Primary: Krishnamoorthi 31, Stratton 10, Kelly 8, Ryan 2, Maxwell 1, Botsford 1, Dean 1
Emerson: IL GOP Primary: Tracy 6, Tillman 3, Evans 3, Long 2, Capparelli 2, Chlebek 1

Cook Ratings
Changes:
AK (Sullivan) Solid R to Lean R

Cook Political Ratings

Emerging Narratives

Signaling from the President

President Trump has signaled openly that Republicans face a tough path in the 2026 midterm elections, warning GOP lawmakers that failing to retain control of Congress could even lead to another impeachment push by Democrats.

Trump’s comments come as internal aides urge him to pivot more toward kitchen-table issues like the economy and healthcare that matter to general election voters. Recent polling shows Trump’s approval on the economy hovering near one-third of Americans, reflecting widespread voter dissatisfaction with economic leadership and reinforcing concerns about Republican prospects in November. Read More.

On the Horizon

Upcoming Elections:

TX-18 Runoff: January 31 (Early Voting begins January 21)

NJ-11 Primary: February 5

NJ-11 General: April 16

2026 Midterms: November 3

New Years Insight: An Outlook for Infrastructure

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 20:52:58 GMT

Big infrastructure decisions are coming fast in 2026. Our resident expert Jack Ruddy explains what’s next—from funding fights to major transportation legislation.

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 21:42:46 GMT

President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joins SiriusXM POTUS to break down the early outlook for the 2026 midterm elections and the battle for control of Congress.

"The words of last year and probably still again this year, Steve, are going to be mid-decade redistricting. I think Republicans are going to end up netting out maybe three or four seats overall when it's all said and done."

Watch the interview:

Ashlee Rich Stephenson

President

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

Thu, 18 Dec 2025 17:30:23 GMT

President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS this morning to discuss President Trump's speech, the Affordable Care Act, and Republican strategy heading into the midterms.

"The path to a strong midterm showing runs through President Trump’s base, and that’s exactly who this speech was designed to activate.”

Watch the interview:

Ashlee Rich Stephenson

President

Mid-Decade Redistricting Battles Give GOP a Net Gain of 1-5 Seats Ahead of 2026

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 21:27:06 GMT

Here is the latest redistricting update based on recent events and projections for the new year, not taking into consideration potential dynamic shifts, such as the outcome in the Voting Rights Act cases that may impact redistricting in several other states.

Virginia Democrats have taken the first step toward a constitutional amendment that will allow them to overturn the state's non-partisan redistricting commission. In order to do so, the legislature will need to pass the amendment again in the new year and then voters will have their say via referendum in the Spring or Summer.

In Florida, Governor DeSantis confirmed that a redistricting effort would take place in the new year. The Florida constitution bans partisan redistricting, so any new map would be subject to challenges, but the state Supreme Court has previously been deferential to the legislature in redistricting matters.

Governor JB Pritzker in Illinois has expressed an openness to redistricting, as requested by national Democrats including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, but to date no concrete steps have been taken. If Illinois elects to redraw its map, it would require moving the 2026 primary to later in the year as filing deadlines have already passed.

Bobby Babcock Named to The Hill's Top Lobbyist List 2025

Thu, 11 Dec 2025 17:55:00 GMT

Congratulations to AxAdvocacy Principal Bobby Babcock on being named one of The Hill’s Top Lobbyists for 2025!

Bobby’s exceptional leadership, strategic insight, and results-driven advocacy on behalf of a diverse portfolio of clients make this recognition well deserved. We’re proud to celebrate his impact and continued contributions to our clients and the industry.

The Hill Top Lobbyist List:
https://thehill.com/homenews/5632709-top-lobbyists-2025/

Bobby Babcock

Principal

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 21:23:03 GMT

All eyes are on Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District today as voters brave the elements and holiday slump to head to the polls in the special election to replace Fmr. Rep. Mark Green. AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS to unpack the turnout warning signs and what Republicans eyeing 2026 should pay attention to from today’s results.

Watch the interview:

Ashlee Rich Stephenson

President

What Veterans Day Means to Me: Reflections on Service, Leadership, and Gratitude

Mon, 17 Nov 2025 15:46:51 GMT

Every year, as our country pauses to reflect on Veterans Day, I think about the history and meaning behind this solemn day. Originally established as Armistice Day to mark the end of World War I on November 11, 1918, it later evolved into Veterans Day, a day we honor American servicemembers of every generation who have sworn to defend our country.

For me, this day means a great deal. As an Army Veteran who served as an Infantry Officer in Afghanistan and Iraq, I often receive a "Thank you for your service." I genuinely appreciate the sentiment, yet I hesitate in how to respond. It was an honor to serve, and I will be forever grateful to have worn the uniform.

I am grateful that my years in uniform shaped the person I am today. I learned valuable lessons in leadership and followership; how to build, inspire, and support teams; and the importance of values such as duty, integrity, respect, and selfless service. Those experiences, responsibilities, and perspectives have guided me throughout my civilian career and in my personal life.

Most importantly, I am forever grateful for the lifelong friendships forged while serving, bonds strengthened through shared mission, values, hardship, and, oftentimes, humor.

It is also important to note that the sacrifices were not solely with the veteran. To the spouses, children, parents, and loved ones who stood behind us, carried the weight at home, and supported their service members through deployments, moves, uncertainty, and long separations, you also served. Our service would not have been possible without your strength and sacrifice.

To all who have served, and to the families who served alongside them, a big thank you!

Today, we honor your commitment, your sacrifice, and your enduring contribution to our great nation.

Happy Veterans Day!

Giancarlo Brizzi

Senior Advisor

Mid-Decade Redistricting Battles Give GOP a Net Gain of 2-7 Seats Ahead of 2026

Mon, 17 Nov 2025 15:11:30 GMT

Advocating 101: Tips from a Government Affairs Specialist and Former State Senator

Mon, 17 Nov 2025 15:02:48 GMT

As a former state senator and government affairs specialist, l've learned advocacy is about trust, relatability, and respect. Here's how to make your case effectively.

First, be honest and transparent. Legislators value advocates who present not just their perspective but also anticipate counterarguments. As a senator, I trusted advocates who shared both the benefits and potential pushback of an issue. In Missouri, a legislator's district in the southeast differs vastly from one in the northwest. Each represents unique needs. By laying out all sides, you help legislators serve their constituents, foster trust, and open doors to constructive dialogue.

Second, use personal stories to connect. People relate to narratives that humanize an issue. Early in my legislative service, I realized legislators need to put a face to an issue. As a conservative woman who grew up on welfare in a single-parent home and became a mother at 16, I could speak to reforms needed in Missouri's welfare system, mental health services, and child protection laws. I used personal stories to help legislators truly understand these issues. If you have a personal anecdote that ties to your cause and feel comfortable sharing it, do so-it's a universal language that cuts through policy jargon.

Third, respect time constraints. A legislator's day is packed with committee meetings, bill reviews, and negotiations to advance their own legislation. Meetings with advocates are just one slice of their responsibilities. They're also human, with families and pressures like anyone else, and need time to decompress. When scheduling meetings, aim for brevity- 15 to 20 minutes is ideal. Deliver your key points quickly and leave room for questions.

To make your message stick, provide a concise, bulleted leave-behind. Research shows bulleted lists improve comprehension and retention by up to 20% compared to dense paragraphs (Source: Journal of Technical Writing and Communication, 2018). A one-page document with 3-5 clear points ensures your message is digestible and memorable. For example, when advocating for mental health needs, I left behind a single sheet summarizing cost savings, how recovery services reduce recidivism compared to incarceration, and familial impact in bullet points.

Finally, follow up thoughtfully. After a week or two, reach out to see if the legislator has questions or needs more information. This shows you value their input without being overbearing. A simple email or call can keep your issue top of mind. Don't be discouraged if you speak to their staff instead-staff play an integral role in every legislative office.

Advocacy is about relationships, not just results. By being honest, relatable, concise, and respectful, you'll make your case and build lasting connections with decision-makers.

Holly Rehder

Missouri Principal

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

Mon, 17 Nov 2025 14:52:08 GMT

Shutdown politics hurts Main Street first. AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS to discuss why Congress needs to get back to governing before paychecks go undelivered next week.

Watch the full interview:

Ashlee Rich Stephenson

President

States Are Becoming America's Policy Lab - Here's How to Stay Ahead

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 20:17:25 GMT

The next big federal fight won’t start in Washington — it’s already brewing in the states. Want to stay ahead of emerging policy trends? Read our latest memo from our Principal of Pennsylvania, Alex Rahn, and contact our team to learn how our state and local expertise can help you spot, shape, and win the battles before they reach D.C.

Staying Ahead in Public Affairs: Anticipate, Adapt, and Build Momentum

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 20:06:07 GMT

In our latest memo, Principal of Public Affairs Elizabeth Coit explains how organizations can stay ahead of the curve with their public affairs campaigns in the modern political and media environment:
▪️Anticipate
▪️Adapt
▪️Build Momentum

The Hidden Cost of Delay: Why Federal Lease Renewals Need a Proactive Strategy

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 16:37:42 GMT

The Hidden Cost of Delay: Why Federal Lease Renewals Need a Proactive Strategy

For federal agencies, lease renewals can feel like a distraction from mission-critical work—until delays cause real consequences: higher costs, relocation headaches, operational disruptions, and even political fallout.

In our latest memo, AxAdvocacy Senior Advisor Giancarlo Brizzi—former Regional Commissioner for the U.S. General Services Administration Public Buildings Service—explains why early, proactive planning is essential for federal lease renewals.

�� The risks of waiting:

Lost negotiating power
Unfavorable lease terms
Costly temporary space
Delayed facility upgrades
Mission disruption

�� Why start early:

Federal approvals can take years
Early alignment ensures better rates and terms
Data-driven planning improves renewal success
36-month timelines dramatically reduce holdovers

During his tenure at GSA, Giancarlo’s region boosted its lease replacement rate from the mid-40% range to over 90% by dollar value—all by starting early, staying disciplined, and using data to guide decisions.

Federal real estate planning shouldn’t be seen as just compliance—it’s a strategic opportunity to align space with mission delivery. For agencies, the message is clear: start at least three years in advance. Your mission—and the American people—depend on it.

Read the full memo HERE

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Quoted In Politico Morning Trade

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 18:14:01 GMT

U.S. Chamber Senior Political Strategist Ashlee Rich Stephenson was quoted in Politico Morning Trade on the Chamber’s recent tax polling, which showed wide support for the pro-growth provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

"'There is far more to the narrative than topline reports indicating the bill is unpopular, particularly when large percentages of the nation are not educated on the legislation itself or the personal benefits that will help communities across the nation,' wrote Ashlee Rich Stephenson, the Chamber’s senior political strategist."

The New York Times also reported on the poll after Fox Business broke the news on Monday.

The poll was shared by the White House Rapid Response , White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt , and the Small Business Administration .

You can read the memo here .

AxAdvocacy Launches 'State & Local', Bringing National Firepower to State-Level Communications, Public Affiars, and Grassroots

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 15:23:59 GMT

AXADVOCACY LAUNCHES ‘STATE & LOCAL’, BRINGING NATIONAL FIREPOWER TO STATE-LEVEL COMMUNICATIONS, PUBLIC AFFAIRS, AND GRASSROOTS

Firm’s new offering delivers strategic communications, grassroots mobilization, and stakeholder engagement in all 50 states

Washington, DC – AxAdvocacy, a leading national public affairs and government relations firm, today announced the launch of  State & Local , a full-service platform that brings AxAdvocacy’s battle-tested strategic communications, grassroots operations, and stakeholder engagement capabilities to state and local fights across the country.

The firm’s offering reflects our continued national expansion, extending its best-in-class public affairs services beyond Washington into every region and community where policy, reputation, and public opinion are on the line.

"State & Local is built to win in every zip code," said Ashlee Rich Stephenson, President of AxAdvocacy. "Whether our clients are navigating a local crisis, launching a product, or building pressure around a critical vote, we bring the message, the relationships, and the mobilization power to deliver real results."

State & Local integrates strategic communications, rapid-response media, grassroots advocacy, and meeting facilitation into a single turnkey operation. From placing stories and shaping narratives to organizing community-level pressure campaigns and facilitating meetings with key stakeholders, AxAdvocacy delivers real-world outcomes where they matter most.

“No other firm combines elite communications strategy with the kind of fully deployed ground game we’re now offering under State & Local,” added Stephenson. “As divided government in Washington fades, the fights are shifting into the states, where those looking to undermine a Republican federal government are taking matters into their own hands. That’s why we’re bringing our national playbook directly to the local level.”

With experience executing in all 50 states, AxAdvocacy’s State & Local team brings a relentless, campaign-style approach to public affairs. The firm’s reach spans national newsrooms and local weeklies, statehouses and city halls, grassroots coalitions and boardrooms, providing clients with unmatched depth and agility.

Learn more at AxAdvocacy.com/StateAndLocal.

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Digital Ads Are Cheap — Until You Waste Them

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Fri, 01 Aug 2025 18:36:49 GMT

Running digital ads has never been easier - or more misused.

We see it all the time:
�� Vague targeting

�� Generic creative

�� Metrics that measure noise, not persuasion

In our latest memo, AxAdvocacy Vice President Jonathan Dickerson breaks down how undisciplined digital strategy leads to wasted spend and what smart campaigns do differently.

Digital advertising has never been more accessible or more misused. For a few hundred dollars, anyone can launch a campaign that racks up impressions, a handful of clicks, maybe even some new page likes. But none of that guarantees you moved the needle.

Cheap ads don’t mean cheap influence. In fact, undisciplined digital campaigns are often the most expensive—because they waste time, money, and opportunity.

We see it constantly: vague targeting (“voters in state”), generic creative, and metrics that prioritize reach or impressions over outcomes. In advocacy, that’s not just ineffective—it’s reckless. When you confuse activity for impact, you’re paying for noise, not persuasion.

Digital advertising gives us powerful tools: segmentation by ideology, geography, behavior—even by historical geographical data. Used correctly, they can drive real outcomes. Used lazily, they produce nothing but inflated reports and exhausted budgets.

Smart campaigns start with clarity: What’s the goal? Who matters? What message will move them? Then, they test. They iterate. They scale what works. We’ve seen $5,000 campaigns outperform $50,000 ones because they were built with purpose and pressure-tested along the way.

And once you’ve reached someone, don’t stop. Repetition isn’t annoying—it’s essential. Most people don’t act the first time they see a message. They act when it shows up again, and again, and again—refined and relevant every time.

That’s where remarketing becomes invaluable. If someone watched your video, clicked your ad, or visited your landing page, they’re in the conversation. Don’t let them drift. Stay with them. Advance the message.

According to a recent study reported by Ad Age , advertisers waste 23% of their programmatic spend—nearly one in four dollars—on low-quality placements, fraud, and made-for-advertising sites. That’s not a media problem. That’s a strategy problem.

At AxAdvocacy, we treat digital like we treat field: targeted, disciplined, and relentlessly focused on outcomes. If your ads aren’t converting, it’s time to rethink the strategy—not just the spend. .

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins NewsNation

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Tue, 29 Jul 2025 18:36:04 GMT

AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined NewsNation recently to discuss the latest headlines, including President Trump's trip to Scotland and Kamala Harris attempting to court young voters.

Watch the full interview:

ICYMI - Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joined SiriusXM POTUS

Fri, 25 Jul 2025 14:59:33 GMT

Earlier this week, Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS The Briefing to discuss President Trump’s recent economic wins: “Finally, having some permanency in the tax code is going to bring a lot of stability to an economy that is, to say ‘shaky’ is an understatement, following four years of the Biden administration.”

What’s Next in Congress - A Mid-Year Outlook

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Fri, 18 Jul 2025 18:15:23 GMT

Now that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is signed into law, Congress is shifting gears toward the major year-end agenda items—and the road ahead looks bumpy.

In our latest memo, AxAdvocacy Senior VP Jack Ruddy breaks down the key legislative battles to watch:

Appropriations & Government Funding
Defense Authorization (NDAA)
Permitting Reform & Infrastructure

With limited time and high stakes, organizations with policy interests in federal funding, defense, infrastructure, or permitting reform should act now.

Let us know how AxAdvocacy can help you prepare.

Read the full memo HERE

Chris Pack Discusses Importance of Taking a Pragmatic Approach to House Primaries

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Wed, 16 Jul 2025 19:16:29 GMT

For the first time in modern history, the majority in the 435-member House is smaller than that of the 100-seat Senate. The razor-thin House margin includes only three GOP incumbents representing districts won by Kamala Harris—one of whom has already announced their retirement.

With that context in mind, AxAdvocacy Principal of Communications Chris Pack recently spoke to the Washington Examiner’s Samantha-Jo Roth about the dangers of targeting majority-making Republicans in swing seats for not voting with the party 100 percent of the time.

From the story:

Chris Pack, a longtime GOP strategist and former NRCC official, said Trump-aligned influencers are short-sighted when they target lawmakers in swing districts.

“When you have a Republican in a seat won by a Democrat like Kamala Harris, realizing that elected officials need to be more bipartisan in their vote should be common sense,” he explained. “But it’s not, because it’s all about getting clicks and likes and retweets for these influencers.”

Chris also explained that many operatives view the primary election as the endgame—when in fact, it’s only halfway through:

As the GOP charts its path forward, Pack urges the party to focus on winning general elections rather than settling scores in primaries.

“Stop thinking the game ends at halftime. The game ends on Election Day in November,” he said. “You can either get a participation trophy or a vote to hold the gavel.”

Read the full story HERE .

Review of Key Supreme Court Rulings: Business & Industry Impacts

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Tue, 15 Jul 2025 17:06:38 GMT

With the Supreme Court’s historic October 2024 term coming to a close, the AxAdvocacy team is pleased to share an updated version of our presentation deck detailing key cases and their potential impact on the business community.

From forum shopping to employment discrimination to parental rights, this term’s decisions will have wide-reaching effects across society. Our guide is designed to help businesses and organizations stay up to date on these issues, and enable you to plan for future legal developments that are likely to result from this set of opinions. The deck can be found here .

AxAdvocacy Welcomes Senior House Committee Staff Director Jack Ruddy as Senior Vice President of Government Relations

Fri, 27 Jun 2025 14:57:14 GMT

AxAdvocacy Welcomes Senior House Committee Staff Director Jack Ruddy as Senior Vice President of Government Relations

Washington, DC – AxAdvocacy, a leading public affairs and government relations firm, announced the addition of Jack Ruddy as Senior Vice President. Ruddy most recently served as Staff Director of the U.S. House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure (T&I), where he led the largest committee in the House through one of the most consequential legislative periods for American infrastructure in recent history.

“Jack Ruddy is one of the most respected and effective staff leaders on Capitol Hill,” said Ashlee Rich Stephenson, President of AxAdvocacy. “His deep policy knowledge, strategic instincts, and extensive relationships on both sides of the aisle make him an extraordinary asset to our clients. We’re thrilled to welcome him to the Ax team.”

During his 14 years of service on Capitol Hill, Ruddy held senior roles including Deputy Staff Director and Legislative Director to House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Sam Graves. As Staff Director, he spearheaded the Committee’s efforts to pass major bipartisan legislation including the $100 billion long-term FAA reauthorization bill, a comprehensive water infrastructure package, reforms to public buildings policy, and two Coast Guard authorization bills, all in a time of divided government and political gridlock.

“No one understands the inner workings of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee better than Jack Ruddy,” said House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Sam Graves. “His command of the issues, his relationships, and his strategic approach made him an invaluable leader on Capitol Hill, and I have no doubt he’ll excel in his next chapter.”

Ruddy is widely known for his ability to build coalitions, navigate complex legislative landscapes, and drive impactful policy outcomes. He played a central role in securing a historic waiver that allowed Chairman Graves to serve a rare fourth term as Committee Chair and was instrumental in developing the strategic campaign that led to Graves’ election to the role.

“I’m honored to join AxAdvocacy at such a pivotal and exciting moment for the firm,” said Jack Ruddy. “I’m ready to hit the ground running and put my Hill experience to work helping our clients break through the noise and take on today’s toughest policy challenges.”

Ruddy holds a B.S. in Political Science from Hampden-Sydney College and is a graduate of the University of Virginia’s Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership. He lives in Alexandria, VA with his wife and two sons.

About AxAdvocacy

AxAdvocacy provides best-in-class public affairs and government relations services to clients across industries and geographies. With a team of experts drawn from federal agencies, Capitol Hill, national campaigns, Fortune 500 companies, and major trade associations, AxAdvocacy offers unparalleled insights and strategic guidance to help clients succeed in today’s evolving policy and political environment.

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Chris Pack Discusses Ripple Effect of Zohran Mamdani’s NYC Mayoral Primary Win

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Fri, 27 Jun 2025 13:46:01 GMT

Chris Pack Discusses Ripple Effect of Zohran Mamdani’s NYC Mayoral Primary Win

AxAdvocacy Principal for Communications Chris Pack discussed the ripple effects of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani’s upset victory in the New York City mayoral primary with The Hill’s Julia Manchester. Pack noted the win will fuel an ongoing shift to the left within the Democratic Party’s base.

Former NRCC communications director Chris Pack said the mayoral primary results are “a powder keg” that is “waiting to explode for Democrats.”

“I’ve never seen such measured responses like we have seen from people like Jeffries and Schumer. It represents an ongoing passing of the torch from the old guard of the party to the younger generation that is far more extreme in their views,” Pack said.

The full story can be viewed below or by clicking HERE .

Republicans target vulnerable Democrats over Mamdani: ‘They own him’

The Hill

By Julia Manchester

June 27, 2025

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5372192-republicans-target-mamdani-new-york/

Republicans are seeking to use Zohran Mamdani’s apparent win in New York City’s Democratic primary to put Democrats on defense in House and Senate races ahead of 2026.

A number of House Democrats facing competitive reelection bids have already moved to distance themselves from Mamdani, while House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D) stopped short of endorsing Mamdani following his win on Wednesday.

Mamdani’s affiliation with the Democratic Socialists of America, coupled with other far-left-leaning views is giving Republicans fodder to target Democrats in New York and beyond.

“Every Democrat in America is going to have to answer for these insane positions,” Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) told The Hill. “They own him. This is how radicalized their party has become.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) tied progressives in Minnesota and Michigan to Mamdani in a statement following his presumed win on Wednesday.

“The grassroots Democrat energy behind socialist Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and radical Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota is a serious threat to everything Americans elected President Trump and Senate Republicans to protect,” said NRSC communications director Joanna Rodriguez.

In a separate statement, National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) said every “vulnerable House Democrat will own” Mamdani.

Reps. Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), who are both facing competitive reelection bids, distanced themselves from Mamdani on Wednesday. Gillen referred to Mamdani as a “socialist” and “too extreme” in a statement, saying he is “the absolute wrong choice for New York.”

Suozzi noted that the concerns he had about Mamdani prior to the primary “remain.”

The two top Democrats on Capitol Hill, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) offered neutral takes on the race, congratulating Mamdani but stopping short of endorsing him.

“Every race is different and everyone’s politics are different,” said Antjuan Seawright, an adviser to Jeffries. “We must give everyone breathing room to do what’s necessary in order for us to accomplish our mission in the House.”

Former NRCC communications director Chris Pack said the mayoral primary results are “a powder keg” that is “waiting to explode for Democrats.”

Republicans are also trying to drag Mamdani into some of the region’s marquee governors’ races.

Potential New York Republican gubernatorial candidates are also looking to cash in on Mamandani’s win. Stefanik and Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) both sent out fundraising appeals, tying incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (R-N.Y.) to the likely Democratic nominee for New York City mayor.

The Republican Governors Association also sought to tie New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) to Mamdani in a statement on Thursday.

“It’s not that hard to disavow socialism, and Mikie Sherrill’s official comments saying she shares the goals of Socialist Zohran Mamdani is not only absurd, but it is disqualifying, period full stop,” the group said in a statement.

Sherrill noted that she has disagreements with Mamdani in a statement, but agreed with him that affordability is a major issue for voters.

“Voters want leaders who understand their daily struggles and are willing to throw out the old playbook to solve them, and while I have plenty of disagreements with Mr. Mamdani, I share his voters’ goal of making life more affordable,” Sherrill said. “I’m focused on my race and bringing costs down in New Jersey.”

Some Democrats who supported former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) in the primary argue that the GOP attacks are a natural consequence of Mamdani’s win.

“New York City primary voters have just handed Donald Trump a gift,” said Jon Reinish, a New York-based Democratic strategist. “Zohran Mamdani’s politics only translate and only are a thing in the most liberal districts in a primary.”

Others note that the Mamdani’s upset win cannot be translated across the midterm map.

“A Democratic primary for a mayoral race certainly doesn’t define the map or the math,” Seawright said.

However, Republicans say that New York City’s sheer size and status as an economic giant allows Republicans to paint with a broad brush.

“This is New York. It’s an emblem of America,” said Republican strategist Matt Beynon. “It is uniquely different.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) said that efforts from their counterparts at the NRCC ultimately amounted to a distraction from Trump’s legislative agenda.

“The NRCC is desperate to change the subject from the big, ugly bill, because they know their plans to strip health care and food assistance from everyday Americans to give tax cuts to the ultra-wealthy will cost them the House majority,” DCCC spokesman Viet Shelton said in a statement to The Hill.

And it would not be the first time Republicans sought to tie Democrats, particularly in New York, to the city’s mayor. Last year, Republicans worked to tie New York Democrats to New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) in the wake of his indictment on federal corruption charges.

A number of New York-area House Democrats won their reelection bids, but Trump improved his performance in New York City and New York State last year.

“It would be malpractice, frankly, not to highlight what’s going on in New York and saying this is what they want, this is the America they envision, and do you really want this?” Beynon, the GOP strategist, said.

AxAdvocacy Expands to California with Marty Wilson at the Helm of New State Practice

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Tue, 17 Jun 2025 19:56:08 GMT

AxAdvocacy Expands to California with Marty Wilson at the Helm of New State Practice

Washington, DC – AxAdvocacy, a leading public affairs and government relations firm, today announced its expansion into California with the addition of longtime political strategist and public affairs veteran Marty Wilson. Wilson will serve as a principal, leading AxAdvocacy’s government affairs practice in California, further cementing the firm’s coast-to-coast presence and deepening its impact on state-level advocacy nationwide.

“We are excited to welcome Marty Wilson to AxAdvocacy as we launch our California practice,” said Ashlee Rich Stephenson, President of AxAdvocacy. “Marty’s nearly four decades of experience in California politics, his unmatched network, and his track record of delivering results across campaigns, ballot initiatives, and corporate advocacy make him the ideal leader to establish our footprint in one of the most dynamic policy environments in the country.”

Prior to joining AxAdvocacy, Wilson served as Executive Vice President of Public Affairs at the California Chamber of Commerce for over a decade, where he oversaw all public affairs activities, including the Chamber’s political action committees, candidate recruitment efforts, and initiative campaigns. His leadership helped shape pro-growth public policy in California, earning him a reputation as one of the state’s most respected and effective strategists.

Wilson’s career spans key leadership roles in the election and re-election efforts of two governors and a U.S. senator. He has spearheaded successful ballot measures and led high-stakes public affairs campaigns, while also serving in senior staff roles at the local, state, and federal levels of government. Outside of public service, he held top positions at renowned communications firms and served as a political advisor to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

“I’m thrilled to join AxAdvocacy and help build its California practice from the ground up,” said Marty Wilson. “This firm brings together best-in-class talent and a results-driven approach to advocacy. I look forward to leveraging my experience to help clients navigate California’s complex political and regulatory landscape—and to drive meaningful change for employers, industries, and communities across the state.”

About AxAdvocacy

AxAdvocacy provides best-in-class public affairs services to clients across industries and geographies. With a team of experts drawn from the White House, federal agencies, Capitol Hill, national campaigns, Fortune 500 companies, and major trade associations, AxAdvocacy offers unparalleled insights and strategic guidance to help clients succeed in today’s evolving policy and political environment.

Learn more at www.AxAdvocacy.com.

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Chamber of Commerce Launches Ad Blitz Behind Tax Bill

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Fri, 30 May 2025 21:18:59 GMT

Chamber of Commerce Launches Ad Blitz Behind Tax Bill

Newsmax

Mark Swanson

May 30, 2025

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/chamber-of-commerce-ad-campaign-tax-bill/2025/05/30/id/1213004/

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Friday announced a six-figure ad campaign in support of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that will fund President Donald Trump's domestic policy agenda.

The chamber said its advertising blitz, set to begin this week, targets "misinformation" about the tax policy bill and is part of the chamber's larger advocacy centering on tax efforts.

The advertising campaign will run in select states and congressional districts in the form of 32 billboards across the country and targeted paid media, the chamber said.

"There is a lot of misinformation being spread about this legislation. This is part of our effort to educate the public on why the bill is good for the economy and for creating more jobs with higher wages, and we want to thank the lawmakers who are working to get this proposal enacted into law," the Chamber of Commerce's senior political strategist, Ashlee Rich Stephenson, said in the release.

The budget bill passed the House by one vote and now sits before the Senate, which will take up action on it when Congress returns from recess next week. A handful of Republican senators have vowed to slash more spending than their House counterparts.

The chamber said its efforts will help raise awareness on the benefits of making permanent the 2017 federal tax overhaul enacted under Trump and the importance of his pro-growth policy.

The chamber also said the ad blitz will also draw "attention to those Members of Congress who are not supportive of the bill and in fact would be voting in favor of the largest tax increase in history."

The ads mention 14 members of the House and two senators, the group said. It did not name names.

The chamber cited a March poll that showed a majority of voters (64%) support making the tax cuts permanent. Further, the survey conducted by McLaughlin and Associates said 65% of American voters are more likely to vote for candidates who support permanent tax relief.

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins NewsNation

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Tue, 20 May 2025 15:28:33 GMT

AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined NewsNation recently to discuss the latest headlines, including Biden's mental decline during his time in office, the Democrat party's messaging, and President Trump's successful trip to the Middle East.

View the full interview here .

AxAdvocacy Principal Chris Pack Talks GOP Medicaid Messaging with The Washington Post

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Mon, 19 May 2025 17:46:16 GMT

AxAdvocacy Principal for Communications Chris Pack spoke with The Washington Post’s Dan Merica about the GOP’s need to simplify its messaging on Medicaid funding amid ongoing budget negotiations in Congress.

To Chris Pack, a longtime Republican operative who has held top positions at the National Republican Congressional Committee and other super PACs, Republicans need to simply simplify their message.

“A lot of times Republicans get wrapped around the axle having to win every single point,” said Pack, who now consults for House candidates. “Play to a draw and muddy the waters. I think that is what Republicans should do on Medicaid.”

“Republicans are trying to protect and preserve Medicaid by making common-sense cuts through getting rid of fraud and abuse,” Pack said when asked about the message Republicans should be pushing. “We don’t have to just take the loss on this issue. You can go on offense. We are not trying to take away Medicaid [for those] who need it and rely on it. … Boil it down and make it simple. You don’t need to win the issue, you just have to not lose the issue.”

Read the story HERE .

AxAdvocacy Harrisburg Office Grand Opening

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Wed, 07 May 2025 15:05:12 GMT

On Monday, May 5, over 120 guests joined AxAdvocacy in Harrisburg, PA to celebrate the grand opening of our new Harrisburg office! This marks an exciting milestone in our continued expansion across the U.S. to advance state-level government relations and advocacy.

We were honored to be joined by a bipartisan group of leaders, including State Auditor Tim DeFoor; Senators Dave Argall, Tim Kearney, Tracy Pennycuick, and Frank Farry; and Representatives Donna Scheuren, David Rowe, Tom Mehaffie, Doyle Heffley, Tim Twardzik, Sheryl Delozier, John Lawrence, Parke Wentling, and Heather Boyd, among many others.

Special thanks to former Secretary of the Navy and U.S. Ambassador Ken Braithwaite for attending, and to our outstanding AxAdvocacy team: President Ashlee Rich Stephenson, Principal Alex Rahn, SVP Jeff Billman, Director Reed Bourgeois, Senior Advisor Thomas Killion, and Associate Amy McGee.

We’re thrilled to grow and deepen our commitment to advocacy!

ICYMI - Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joined SiriusXM POTUS

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Thu, 24 Apr 2025 20:40:32 GMT

AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined Steve Scully on SiriusXM POTUS to weigh in on the tariff debate happening in Washington right now. “"If President Trump can make his tax cuts permanent, that will bring a lot of confidence to the market and bring a lot of confidence to main streets."

Listen to the clip below:

AxAdvocacy Featured in Bloomberg's 2024 Top-Performing Lobbying Firms Report

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Tue, 22 Apr 2025 20:49:54 GMT

AxAdvocacy was honored to be recognized as one of the top ten fastest growing firms in the nation in Bloomberg's 2024 Top-Performing Lobbying Firms report.

Read the full report here: https://assets.bbhub.io/bna/sites/20/2025/04/2025-Top-Performing-Lobbying-Firms-Report.pdf

ICYMI - AxAdvocacy SCOTUS Deck Featured in Hotline

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Tue, 22 Apr 2025 20:42:45 GMT

As seen in this morning's Hotline, ahead of several high-stakes decisions before the Supreme Court, AxAdvocacy has developed a presentation deck offering an overview of key cases and an analysis of how their outcomes could affect organizations and industries.

This resource is available to download here: https://lnkd.in/eA_3Qdfm

Planning for Key Supreme Court Rulings: Business & Industry Impacts

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Tue, 22 Apr 2025 19:53:23 GMT

As the Supreme Court’s term continues, several high-stakes decisions are expected this spring and early summer that may have far-reaching implications for the business and industry landscape.

Corporate leaders and stakeholders should stay informed about the potential ripple effects these rulings may have across various sectors.

To help our clients and colleagues prepare, the AxAdvocacy team has developed this presentation deck on pending rulings. It offers a concise overview of key cases on the Court’s docket and analyzes how their outcomes could affect organizations and industries. This resource is designed to serve as a roadmap for anticipating legal challenges and identifying strategic considerations.

Key issues the Court is set to address—and are highlighted in the deck—include:

• Employer obligations under the ADA
• False claims to federal regulators
• Court forum shopping
• Allegations of reverse discrimination
• Foreign governments using the U.S. legal system
• Liability of gun manufacturers
• Congressional redistricting
• Clean Water Act & Clean Air Act interpretations
• The scope of federal agency power
• Tax exemptions for religious organizations
• Parental rights over school content
• Public funding for religious schools

By staying ahead of these developments, businesses can better navigate the shifting legal landscape and plan with confidence.

Click the image below to access the full presentation.

Principal Chris Pack Quoted in USA Today

gbucci@axadvocacy.com (Gabriella Bucci) — Tue, 22 Apr 2025 19:48:06 GMT

AxAdvocacy Principal of Communications Chris Pack spoke with USA Today on the early start to the 2026 midterm elections. Speaking about Defending America PAC's efforts to support Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick, Pack noted that the campaign cycle has become nonstop. “It’s definitely become a full-contact sport,” he said. “And it seems there’s no longer an off-season.”

Read the full article below:

Midterms aren't as far away as you think. The fight has already started.

USA Today

Chris Brennan

April 11, 2025

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2025/04/11/democrats-congress-midterms-2026-election/83014650007/

The 2026 midterm elections, which will determine which political party controls the U.S. House and Senate, are still nearly 19 months away . But those fights are already turning chippy.

Democrats, eager to find a way back from political relegation, are in a solid position to retake the House next year. Republicans, keen on keeping control in both chambers of Congress, are already teeing off on Democratic contenders.

A prime example is U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick , a Pennsylvania Republican seeking a sixth term next year in a purple congressional district in the suburbs just north of Philadelphia. Fitzpatrick is just one of three Republicans in the House who won in districts where Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris beat Republican opponent Donald Trump in November's election.

He's accustomed to having a target on his district . Next year will be no different.

Fitzpatrick has for years bedeviled activists on both ends of the political spectrum. Ardent Trump supporters in the district hate to hear him described as a conservative. Progressives there are driven to distraction when Fitzpatrick is called a moderate.

This has worked for Fitzpatrick for nearly a decade. But now, he's tied again to a deeply unpopular president. Fitzpatrick's only tough election was in 2018 , a midterm election. Guess who was president then.

Democrats have chosen which GOP seats they want to flip

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on April 8 named Fitzpatrick's seat one of 35 districts held by Republicans targeted to flip next year .

This was, of course, an advantageous week for that sort of messaging, giving Trump's flippity-floppity flirtation with economic calamity, concerns about federal budget cuts starving off access to programs like Social Security and Medicaid, and sinking approval ratings for Republicans in Congress.

The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia on April 10 listed Fitzpatrick's seat as one of 13 held by Republicans across the country considered a "toss-up" next year. Part of that rests on historical precedent. For decades, with the exception of 2002, the party that holds the White House has suffered midterm election losses in Congress.

Kyle Kondik from The Center for Politics told me he doesn't see Fitzpatrick as "a top-tier Democratic target" because he hasn't faced a difficult challenge since the 2018 election. Even so, he added that if Vice President Harris had won the presidency last November, Fitzpatrick's seat would have been rated a "likely Republican" win this week.

Kondik, writing April 10 about the midterm elections, noted that Democrats " have been punching above their weight in special elections " this year, which echoes back to party wins in 2017, the first year of Trump's first term, ahead of a successful 2018 midterm cycle.

"Democrats became favorites to flip the House as soon as Trump won, and what has happened since then has not really changed that assessment," Kondik wrote.

The Pennsylvania midterm election getting attention

For a potential congressional matchup set way down the road on Nov. 3, 2026, the ominous text messages I've received in the past week make the race sound imminent.

Bob Harvie , a Democrat who chairs the Bucks County Board of Commissioners, has entered his party's primary to challenge Fitzpatrick. And he, too, was soon wearing a target.

The National Republican Congressional Committee fired off an early salvo April 8 knocking Harvie for how Bucks County spent national money from a national opioid settlement.

And Defending America, a super PAC that describes itself as committed to protecting Fitzpatrick "from extremist challenges on both the far-left and far-right," came out swinging at Harvie with texts calling him a "clown" and "a corrupt, do-nothing partisan hack."

Having a Republican in the 1st Congressional District and a Democrat as chair of the county commission shows how politically competitive the district is, where 42% of the registered voters are Republicans , 40% are Democrats and the rest are independents or members of smaller parties.

You might assume a super PAC seeking to help Fitzpatrick would be well funded by deep-pocket conservative groups. You'd be wrong.

Federal Election Commission reports show that political action committees for unions representing carpenters, laborers, plumbers, letter carriers and airline pilots were the biggest contributors to Defending America in 2023 and 2024.

Trump is already promising big midterm wins. Not so fast.

Chris Pack, a longtime Republican political consultant and spokesperson for Defending America, told me the super PAC was set up in 2023 to help Fitzpatrick fend off a primary challenger from the right. I asked him if it felt like the midterms were off to an early start. He agreed.

"It's definitely become a full-contact sport," Pack told me. "And it seems there's no longer an off-season."

Kondik said money flooding into races early accelerates the cycle to where it hardly starts or stops.

"There's so much money in the political system that it's never too early to see attacks," Kondik said. "There really is effectively a permanent campaign for the House."

With the cycle already churning, Fitzpatrick and other potentially vulnerable Republicans will face certain scrutiny from voters and special interests looking to see how close to ‒ or distant from ‒ he is to a controversial president who could serve as an effective deadweight on his campaign.

Talk about a toss-up. Trump, speaking April 8 at the National Republican Congressional Committee's annual fundraiser , promised his party "a tremendous, thundering landslide" in the midterm elections in a rambling speech that oscillated between old lies about the 2020 election and new boasts about the tariffs he had just slapped on countries around the world.

A day later, Trump paused those tariffs for 90 days as panic in the stock markets metastasized into the bond market , giving the president's advisers some serious agita.

Vulnerable Republicans like Fitzpatrick now have nearly 19 months of that sort of inevitable chaos to weather. Progressives have failed to topple him. Maybe Trump is up to the task this time?

AxAdvocacy Grows Leadership Team with Addition of Giancarlo Brizzi as Senior Advisor

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 15:01:55 GMT

AxAdvocacy Grows Leadership Team with Addition of Giancarlo Brizzi as Senior Advisor

WASHINGTON - AxAdvocacy is pleased to announce the addition of Giancarlo Brizzi as a Senior Advisor to our industry-leading government relations team. With nearly three decades of experience spanning both public and private sectors, Brizzi will be an integral part of AxAdvocacy’s team, driving strategic initiatives and delivering impactful results for our clients in today’s complex policy landscape.

“We are delighted to add Giancarlo to our team of subject matter experts at AxAdvocacy, lending our clients first class knowledge in solving complex issues and setting a new standard of government relations service,” said Ashlee Rich Stephenson, president of AxAdvocacy. “As we build our team and practice, we will continue to add battle tested leaders like Giancarlo to our roster, offering current and future clients the best counsel available in Washington and the states.”

Brizzi’s extensive experience will be particularly valuable as AxAdvocacy continues to expand its work with General Services Administration (GSA)-related matters.

“Our wide-ranging portfolio of clients with General Services Administration (GSA) related issues is rapidly expanding, and our clients require real expertise to navigate in order to be effective,” said Bobby Babcock, principal of AxAdvocacy and former GSA Regional Administrator (2018-2020). “I’ve worked closely with Giancarlo Brizzi for several years, and can speak with certainty that his addition to our team puts AxAdvocacy in a category of itself and understanding of the inner workings of the GSA.”

Brizzi added “The level of knowledge and strategic capabilities demonstrated by Bobby Babcock and the AxAdvocacy team are exceptional. I am thrilled to join AxAdvocacy for the next phase of my career and help grow the portfolio of GSA related clients.”

Brizzi’s addition underscores AxAdvocacy’s commitment to providing top-tier government relations services, ensuring clients receive the highest level of expertise and strategic guidance.

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About Giancarlo Brizzi

Giancarlo Brizzi most recently served as the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) Public Buildings Service (PBS) Regional Commissioner – Greater Southwest Region, overseeing a team of more than 500 employees and managing real property operations across Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. He was responsible for an extensive portfolio of over 1,500 assets and 35 million square feet, leading efforts in portfolio management, capital construction, operations and maintenance, leasing, and disposal of federal office space, U.S. courthouses, land ports of entry, laboratories, clinics, and warehouses.

Prior to this role, Giancarlo served as the Principal Deputy Associate Administrator in the GSA Office of Government-wide Policy, where he led initiatives to develop cost-effective policies and practices across federal agencies. His areas of focus included acquisition, real and personal property, travel and transportation, evidence and evaluation, data analytics, and information technology. During his tenure at GSA, he held multiple executive roles, including Chief of Staff, Regional Administrator, Associate Administrator for Government-wide Policy, and Chief Operating Officer for the Technology Transformation Service.

Earlier in his career, Giancarlo worked at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, where he held several roles, most notably as Director of the Office of Financial Management for the Departmental Offices (Treasury Headquarters). In this role, he managed a large team overseeing budget policy, financial reporting and controls, and resource management.

Giancarlo began his career as a management consultant, advising large federal agencies on financial management operations. He is also a veteran of the Army National Guard, having served as an infantry officer with deployments to both Afghanistan and Iraq.

He holds a Master of Business Administration and a Bachelor of Science in Finance from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech).

Principal Bobby Babcock featured in Construction News and Review Magazine

Tue, 18 Mar 2025 15:18:21 GMT

AxAdvocacy principal Bobby Babcock wrote a piece for Construction News and Review Magazine on construction regulations. The construction industry has faced significant challenges over the past four years due to rising costs and regulatory hurdles, making 2025 a critical year for reforming policies to enhance competition, efficiency, and innovation in infrastructure development.

ICYMI – Missouri Times: Holly Thompson Rehder joins AxAdvocacy

Tue, 04 Feb 2025 16:18:27 GMT

AxAdvocacy has announced that former Missouri State Senator Holly Thompson Rehder will be leading their government affairs work in Missouri.

“Joining AxAdvocacy presents an exciting opportunity to continue to positively impact the lives of my fellow Missourians,” said Thompson Rehder.

Thompson Rehder is an experienced political figure in Missouri politics, a successful businesswoman, and an author. She served eight year in the Missouri House and went on to replace Wayne Wallingford in the Senate, where she represented District 27.

Thompson Rehder faced a tough childhood. At age fifteen she dropped out of school to help care for her mother and sister after they suffered a terrible car accident. Shortly after this, she would get married and have a child of her own. Despite growing up in tough circumstances, Rehder used her talents and tenacity to see that her kids would grow up to have a better childhood than her.

Her book Cinder Girl, serves to show others what her life was like growing up as well as to advocate for those Americans who faced similar troubles.

“Rehder challenges us to recall the plight of those far less fortunate, who struggle without the opportunities most of us take for granted.” stated a line from her book’s back cover.

Before her time in the state legislature, Thompson Rehder worked in government affairs in the telecommunications industry, serving as the Director of Government Affairs for Galaxy Cablevision. In that role, she gained firsthand experience with Missouri’s legislative process and its impact on businesses and communities.

During her time in elected office, she worked on issues involving drug addiction, mental health, foster care, and more. She also helped to formulate policies dealing with domestic abuse, support for families, and combating drug abuse.

“Holly’s deep-rooted understanding of Missouri’s legislative landscape, coupled with her unwavering commitment to meaningful change, makes her an invaluable asset as we continue to broaden our reach across the nation.” stated Ashlee Rich Stephenson, President of AxAdvocacy.

AxAdvocacy provides its clients with public affairs services and works to navigate public policy and regulatory environments. Bringing together those from backgrounds working in government to the private sector, AxAdvocacy works to make sure they have the best of the best working for them.

“Holly knows how to win the tough legislative fights, and that’s why she’s the perfect fit for AxAdvocacy,” said AxAdvocacy’s founder Jeff Roe.

Her experience in the legislature and business as well as her personal passion for advocacy will serve her well working with AxAdvocacy.

Read online: https://themissouritimes.com/holly-thompson-rehder-joins-axadvocacy/

AxAdvocacy Expands National Footprint with Former Missouri State Senator Holly Thompson Rehder Leading Government Affairs in Missouri

Tue, 04 Feb 2025 16:13:33 GMT

AxAdvocacy Expands National Footprint with Former Missouri State Senator Holly Thompson Rehder Leading Government Affairs in Missouri

Washington, DC – AxAdvocacy, a leading public affairs and government relations firm, today announced the appointment of former Missouri State Senator Holly Thompson Rehder to lead its government affairs work in Missouri. The move underscores AxAdvocacy’s continued national expansion and engagement in state-level advocacy.

"We are thrilled to welcome Holly to the AxAdvocacy team," said Ashlee Rich Stephenson, President of AxAdvocacy. "Holly’s deep-rooted understanding of Missouri’s legislative landscape, coupled with her unwavering commitment to meaningful change, makes her an invaluable asset as we continue to broaden our reach across the nation."

Rehder brings a unique blend of legislative expertise, business acumen, and personal advocacy to her new role. As a former state legislator, businesswoman, and public speaker, she has been at the forefront of fighting for policies addressing addiction, mental health, foster care, and economic empowerment, all of which are issues she has experienced firsthand and championed throughout her career. During her eight years in the Missouri House and four years in the Missouri Senate, she led efforts to address domestic violence, combat drug abuse, and enhance support for struggling families.

“Holly knows how to win the tough legislative fights, and that’s why she’s the perfect fit for AxAdvocacy,” said Jeff Roe, Founder of AxAdvocacy. “I’ve had the pleasure of working with Holly for nearly two decades and know firsthand she brings the same results-driven, relentless approach that defines our work. At AxAdvocacy, we’re in the business of winning, and Holly embodies that culture completely.”

"Joining AxAdvocacy presents an exciting opportunity to continue to positively impact the lives of my fellow Missourians," said Holly Thompson Rehder . "AxAdvocacy is a firm that understands the many moving parts and ever-changing landscape of strategic, results-driven advocacy, and I look forward to leveraging my experience to advance meaningful solutions in the Missouri State Capitol.”

About AxAdvocacy

Providing best-in-class public affairs services to its clients, AxAdvocacy brings together talent from the White House, federal agencies, Capitol Hill, presidential campaigns, national campaign committees, Fortune 500 companies, and the largest trade associations in Washington, D.C., offering unmatched expertise in navigating today's complex policy and regulatory environments.

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AxAdvocacy Adds Hill Veteran Jeff Billman as Senior Vice President

Tue, 04 Feb 2025 16:12:06 GMT

AxAdvocacy Adds Hill Veteran Jeff Billman as Senior Vice President

WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 9, 2025) — AxAdvocacy is excited to announce the addition of Jeff Billman as a Senior Vice President on our industry-leading government relations team. Billman will be an integral part of AxAdvocacy’s growing team and utilize his deep rolodex and years of experience to further develop the firm’s relationships with incoming Trump Administration officials and staff.

Billman most recently served as Chief of Staff for Congressman Ronny Jackson (TX-13), a role Billman held since Rep. Jackson was sworn into Congress in 2021. During his tenure as Chief of Staff, he worked closely with the numerous committees on which Rep. Jackson served, including Armed Services, Agriculture, Foreign Affairs, and other Select Committees. During Billman’s tenure, Rep. Jackson was also a prolifically successful fundraiser, exceeding $3.5 million cash-on-hand at the end of the 118th Congress.

Prior to joining Rep. Jackson, Billman also served in senior roles for former Rep. Peter Roskam (IL-06), former Ways and Means Chairman and Ranking Member Kevin Brady (TX-08), and Rep. Kevin Hern (OK-01). Jeff got his start on Capitol Hill working for the Chief Deputy Majority Whip, giving him a unique insight into the dynamics and functioning of how Congress works in both leadership and rank-and-file offices.

In his previous roles, Jeff also helped manage the official and campaign operations for senior Members on the Ways and Means Committee, one of the House’s most powerful Committees. He has extensive experience on a wide array of political campaigns, having conducted grassroots advocacy outreach, canvassed state and local candidates, and helped manage GOTV, fundraising, and volunteer operations for targeted U.S. House Seats in 2014 and 2018. He also helped organize efforts for the Republican National Convention and was intimately involved with transition efforts after Donald J. Trump’s historic win in the 2024 Presidential Election.

Jeff graduated with both a Bachelor of Arts and Master’s from the University of Dallas. He lives in Irving, Texas with his wife, Lauren.

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Samantha Dravis joined Fox Business’s Mornings with Maria to discuss Republicans divided over Johnson’s speakership

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 16:33:44 GMT

Samantha Dravis joined Fox Business’s Mornings with Maria to discuss Republicans divided over Johnson’s speakership:
“If Republicans don’t implement President Trump’s agenda in the next two years, they will lose in 2026… because they didn’t do the job the voters told them they wanted to see done.”

Samantha Dravis joined Fox News America Reports to discuss Democrats’ ‘out of touch’ policies

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 16:32:06 GMT

Samantha Dravis joined Fox News America Reports to discuss Democrats’ ‘out of touch’ policies:
“The twin pillars of the Democrat Party brand this year were woke identity politics that were so destructive to the culture and weaponization of government against folks that they didn’t agree with.”

Samantha Dravis joined NewsNation The Hill to discuss how the Department of Government Efficiency might take on government waste

Mon, 09 Dec 2024 15:28:40 GMT

AxAdvocacy’s Samantha Dravis joined NewsNation The Hill to discuss how the Department of Government Efficiency might take on government waste:
“The American voters made it clear they’re not happy with how Washington is spending their money and they want [DOGE] to happen.”

President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined ABC News Live to discuss President Trump’s chance of winning the election.

Mon, 09 Dec 2024 15:26:28 GMT

President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined ABC News Live to discuss President Trump’s chance of winning the election.
“Were you better off 4 years ago or under the Biden-Harris administration? We see in all of the public data that a majority of Americans think they were better off under President Trump’s leadership. That’s operating from a position of confidence going into Election Day.”

Samantha Dravis joined NewsNation The Hill to discuss the the state of the Presidential Election.

Mon, 09 Dec 2024 15:24:51 GMT

Samantha Dravis joined NewsNation The Hill to discuss the the state of the Presidential Election.
“I would rather be the Trump campaign than the Harris campaign right now. Over the last 30 days, the trend line in these battleground state polls is shifting to Trump and away from Harris."

President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined CNN

Mon, 09 Dec 2024 15:15:51 GMT

President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined CNN The Lead with Jake Tapper to discuss the presidential candidates' paths to victory:
“Harris’s only chance to win at this point is she must run up the score with women, especially college-educated women. The other demographic groups that she need are walking away from her.”

Samantha Dravis joined Fox News at Night to discuss Kamala Harris losing traction among Latino voters in the Sun Belt

Tue, 15 Oct 2024 13:28:57 GMT

Samantha Dravis joined Fox News at Night to discuss Kamala Harris losing traction among Latino voters in the Sun Belt.
“She’s changed her substantive position on almost every single important policy issue. I think she’s coming off as disingenuous and dishonest and that’s coming through in the polling.”

Samantha Dravis joined NewsNation The Hill to discuss the federal response to Hurricanes Helene and Milton

Thu, 10 Oct 2024 15:08:00 GMT

Samantha Dravis joined NewsNation The Hill to discuss the federal response to Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
“Americans are frustrated when they see… millions of dollars of FEMA resources and personnel going to resettle illegal immigrants instead of helping Americans with disaster recovery.”

Colleges Must Stand Firm Against Far-Left Pro-Hamas Extremism

Tue, 08 Oct 2024 18:54:16 GMT

By Chris Pack and Bob Salera

Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s brutal terrorist attacks on Israel. And predictably, the far-left, pro-Hamas activists that caused chaos on American college campuses earlier this year were back out in force, disgustingly celebrating terrorism, and chanting antisemitic slogans. As we saw during the spring semester, this vocal minority is pushing institutions toward policies that align with extremist ideologies. In the interest of their reputations, colleges and universities must learn from their mistakes, resist this pressure, and stand firm on principles that reflect the broader values of our society.

Colleges must not allow a small but loud group to dictate policies that could lead to national ridicule and a loss of public trust. Instead, they should focus on the values held by the majority, who support Israel and reject the violence of Hamas. The backlash against Ivy League universities should serve as a cautionary tale: aligning with extremist views does not lead to respect or progress but rather to a tarnished reputation and diminished support.

Recent polling underscores the widespread American support for Israel and the widespread condemnation of Hamas. According to a recent Gallup poll, a significant majority of Americans view Hamas unfavorably and support Israel’s right to defend itself. Another survey revealed that the reputations of Ivy League schools have suffered due to their handling of pro-Hamas protests, indicating that appeasement of radical elements is damaging these institutions’ standing in the eyes of the public.

Compounding this issue is the current administration's weakness in handling similar pressures. President Biden’s inconsistent stance on Israel, influenced by anonymous letters from within his staff, has undermined his pro-Israel position. This internal dissent has emboldened extremist views and led to a perception of capitulation. Such weakness at the highest levels of government sends a dangerous signal that yielding to the loudest voices, rather than standing firm on principles, is an acceptable approach.

Reflecting on the 2020 election cycle offers valuable insights from our time leading the communications efforts of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

Fresh off their victory in the 2018 election, retaking the majority in the US House of Representatives, the Democratic Conference was infused with a freshman class that included several high-profile far-left figures, including self-avowed socialists like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar. These new members, part of the self-styled “Squad” endorsed extreme positions that were anathema to the vast majority of voters like Defund the Police, the Green New Deal and Abolish ICE. Instead of distancing themselves from The Squad’s extreme positions and rhetoric, their fellow House Democrats remained silent or even defended them, similar to what we are seeing on campuses with anti-Semitic protests.

In response to this extremism on the other side of the aisle, under the mandate of then-House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, we adopted an aggressive tone in defining our Democratic opponents. And at the urging of well-known pollster Neil Newhouse, we made the 2020 election a referendum on the Democrats’ lurch towards socialist policies.

As expected, we were laughed at.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairwoman Cheri Bustos, who was responsible for protecting the centrist House Democrats, dismissed our strategy in September 2019 on a panel discussion at the Texas Tribune Festival, saying “This [socialism] label that you keep repeating over and over and over again, I think we’re going to be sick and tired of it by the time November of 2020 rolls around. It is not true. It is fake. It’s not going to stick.”

Then-Meet the Press’ then-host Chuck Todd was quick to pick up on Bustos’ tone, further mocking us on his panel observing, “Socialism is a central tenet of the Republican playbook this cycle. You see it with the NRCC. In the House races they try it. I mean my goodness. Who’s not a socialist as far as the NRCC is concerned?”

And right on cue, while we were busy staying on message of socialism, the professional race handicappers, who we referred to internally as the “paywall prognosticators” predicted that Democrats would win “10-15 seats, with anything from 5-20 seats well within the range of possibility.”

But that is not what happened. instead, the GOP made history by flipping an unprecedented 15 seats, while simultaneously losing GOP control of the Senate and White House. The fallout was immediately validating, as majority making centrist Democrats ceded that the NRCC stuck to its message and tuned out the noise of beltway press and paywall prognosticators.

As reported by The Washington Post, “In the aftermath of their unexpected losses, Democrats argued that the party needs to come to terms with a bigger problem: Republicans have successfully cast the most vulnerable Democrats as “socialists” and tied them to liberal ideas, including Medicare-for-all, the Green New Deal and cutting police budgets.” One Democratic representative remarked to her colleagues, “Don’t say socialism ever again,” and “if we run this race again we will get f-----g torn apart again [at the polls]."

The lesson is clear: when institutions coddle extremists instead of standing up to them, it broadcasts to the world at large that the institutions in question are taking the extremists’ side. For the sake of their own reputations, as well as decency, colleges and universities must vocally reject the violent extremists on their campuses, prioritizing the values and beliefs of the broader American public over the disruptive demands of a radical few. By doing so, they will not only uphold their own integrity but also contribute to a more balanced and principled national discourse.

The defeated House Democrats should serve as a cautionary tale to these colleges and universities. Weakness and inconsistency in the face of extremist pressure leads to chaos and undermines core values. Colleges must choose the path of strength and principle, ensuring their policies reflect the true values of our nation and not the disruptive whims of a minority.

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Chris Pack and Bob Salera led the NRCC’s messaging efforts during the 2020 election cycle. They now lead the communications vertical at Washington, DC public affairs firm, AxAdvocacy.

Pennsylvania is THE Battleground State

Tue, 01 Oct 2024 18:56:43 GMT

As the presidential election heads into the home stretch, Pennsylvania has emerged as the top battleground state. Below is an analysis of what each campaign will be focused on in the run-up to Election Day from our Ax Pennsylvania team – Alex Rahn, Rob Brooks, Julia Vahey and Anthony Pontarelli.

Pennsylvania has historically played a decisive role in presidential races, and 2024 will be no exception. The Commonwealth is arguably the main battleground state that will determine who wins the 2024 election for the White House. Winning Pennsylvania will be critical for both the Harris and Trump campaigns.

However, polling in Pennsylvania has essentially been tied , so what will it take to win Pennsylvania in the next few weeks before Election Day?

While very few voters remain undecided, each campaign must focus on key get out the vote (GOTV) strategies and highlighting policy positions that will energize their supporters.

As in other states, the economy dominates as the top issue in most polls. Other topics, including abortion and immigration, will galvanize key voter blocs and drive turnout for the Harris and Trump campaigns on Election Day.

Additionally, the presidential election in Pennsylvania will likely determine the outcome of downballot races, including the US Senate race between incumbent Bob Casey (D) and challenger Dave McCormick (R), three other statewide row office campaigns, and even control of the PA General Assembly. Indeed, the current Democratic majority in the PA House of Representatives is held by one seat and control will likely come down to which presidential candidate carries key swing districts.

Harris Campaign: Keys to Winning Pennsylvania

Maximizing Turnout in Philadelphia
Pennsylvania’s largest city, Philadelphia, is a Democratic stronghold, and Harris will need to drive high turnout to counterbalance Republican-leaning rural regions. The campaign must ensure that voters are energized by focusing on issues such as police reform, economic opportunity, reproductive rights, and health care access. A key tactic will be voter registration and turnout efforts, especially in historically underrepresented communities.
Winning Over the Philadelphia Suburbs
The “collar counties” around Philadelphia—Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, and Delaware—have trended Democratic over the last decade, and Trump has only accelerated this shift. In 2020, Biden won 54 percent of suburban voters, according to the Pew Research Center . Harris needs to not just maintain the margins Democrats secured in 2020 but expand on them by highlighting issues that connect with suburban voters, particularly women, and independents. Messaging around reproductive rights, education, gun control, and climate change could resonate in these affluent suburban areas. Economic stability and inflation concerns will also play a role, requiring a balanced message of prosperity and equity.
Limiting Losses Among Working-Class Voters in Pittsburgh and Western PA
Western Pennsylvania, particularly Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), has traditionally supported Democrats, but Trump made inroads with white working-class voters in surrounding areas. Harris will need to focus on turnout in Pittsburgh’s urban center while addressing the concerns of blue-collar voters in the more industrial parts of the region. Messaging around the economy, job creation, infrastructure, union support, and reliable energy jobs will be key to limiting losses among these working-class voters. However, Harris’s past support for a fracking ban will be toxic in Western Pennsylvania.
Reaching Out to Rural Voters in Central and Northern PA
Though rural Pennsylvania is solidly Republican; the Harris campaign cannot afford to ignore these voters entirely. By focusing on policies that affect farmers, small businesses, and rural healthcare, Harris may be able to reduce the Republican margins here. While winning these counties outright is unlikely, minimizing the deficit can be just as valuable in the overall vote tally.
Youth and College Voter Engagement
Pennsylvania is home to numerous colleges and universities, including Penn State, Temple, University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Pennsylvania. Harris will need to energize younger voters, who lean Democratic but often have lower turnout rates. Gen Z and Millennials played a large role in the 2022 midterms, voting heavily for Democratic candidates and exceeding their turnout from 2018 . But a recent poll from CNN should serve as a warning flag for the Harris campaign. While Harris leads Trump among young voters, her margin is falling well short of Biden’s in 2020. The top issue among young voters, like every age group is the economy, and they are dissatisfied with the current direction of the country. Failure to address the Biden-Harris administration’s shortcomings on inflation, housing costs, and other key economic issues could be catastrophic for the Harris campaign.
Latino and Black Voter Turnout
The growing Latino population, particularly in cities like Philadelphia, Allentown, and Reading, represents an opportunity for Harris to expand her base. Outreach to Latino communities on immigration reform, healthcare, and economic opportunity will be crucial. Similarly, strong turnout among Black voters, especially in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, will be vital for Democratic success. However, recent polls have shown Harris performing worse than Biden among these voters, with Trump cutting into her margins among these traditionally Democratic-leaning demographics. If that trend holds, Harris will be hard-pressed to win in Pennsylvania.

Trump Campaign: Strategies for Winning Pennsylvania

Maximizing Turnout in Rural and Small-Town Pennsylvania
Trump’s path to victory in Pennsylvania runs through its rural and small-town regions, particularly in central and northern Pennsylvania. This is the famous “T” that many national pundits reference, and is where Trump performed well in both 2016 and 2020. To win the state, Trump must not only replicate but surpass his previous margins in these areas by further mobilizing rural voters who feel disconnected from urban and coastal elites. However, Vice President Harris is putting up a fight for these voters; 16 of the Harris campaign's 50 offices are in predominantly rural counties that Trump carried in 2020 by double digits. The Harris campaign has also launched a new ad geared towards this bloc of voters on digital and radio, which is estimated to reach more than 500,000 likely voters who don’t live in metro areas around cities or suburban counties . The Trump campaign cannot afford to lose this base and must emphasize issues like deregulation, Second Amendment rights, and opposition to environmental policies seen as harmful to coal, gas, and manufacturing jobs, and obviously, his America First economic message will resonate deeply in these communities.
Holding Steady in the Pittsburgh Region
While Pittsburgh itself tends to vote Democratic, the surrounding counties—Westmoreland, Washington, Beaver, and Greene—are critical to Trump’s success. These areas have a strong working-class presence, many of whom feel aligned with Trump’s populist message. Trump must continue to highlight his America First economic policies, trade tariffs, and opposition to environmental regulations that are perceived as a threat to traditional industries. Reinforcing his commitment to manufacturing and traditional fossil fuel energy jobs could help secure this key voting bloc, as could reminding voters of Harris’s past support for banning fracking, an industry that employs or supports hundreds of thousands of western Pennsylvania jobs.
Chipping Away at the Suburban Vote
Trump lost substantial ground in the Philadelphia suburbs for his re-election in 2020, particularly among women and moderate Republicans . To win Pennsylvania in 2024, he’ll need to make significant inroads in these counties. His campaign will likely focus on crime, school choice, and inflation—issues that can resonate with suburban families concerned about safety and economic security. Targeting messaging toward suburban men, particularly on law and order and economic growth, while softening his image for women will be crucial. Voters in the Philadelphia Suburbs have also traditionally been ticket splitters with Democrat Presidential candidates winning the region since 1992 while the counties and local offices remained Republican until recently. While these counties are now mostly blue, registration numbers between Republican and Democrats do not reflect this, meaning Republican voters are now even more likely to vote for Democrat candidates up and down the ticket. Trump cannot take these moderate Republican voters for granted. A strong focus on the economy will be key to winning over these voters.
Making Gains with Latino and Black Voters
Trump made modest gains with minority voters in 2020, and he’ll need to build on that progress in Pennsylvania, particularly in urban areas like Philadelphia, Reading, and Allentown. His messaging should focus on economic opportunity, entrepreneurship, and school choice—issues that resonate with conservative-leaning segments of these communities. By focusing on law and order and criminal justice reform, Trump could further appeal to Latino and Black voters concerned about safety in their neighborhoods.
Turnout, Turnout, Turnout
For Trump, winning Pennsylvania means driving record turnout among his base. This includes not just rural voters but also disaffected Democrats, Independents, and non-college-educated white voters who were crucial to his 2016 win. Democrats currently have the slimmest voter registration advantage in decades. New registration data from the PA Department of State shows 3.9 million Pennsylvanians are registered Democrats compared to 3.5 million Republicans, and Republicans have seen an increase of 141,648 voters in the last ten months compared to a 33,478 increase for Democrats. The Trump campaign must capitalize on this momentum with a strong ground game focused on continued voter registration, GOTV efforts, embracing vote by mail, and ensuring that supporters turn up at the polls.
Targeting Voter Frustration
Trump can capitalize on frustrations with inflation, rising interest rates, and perceived ineffectiveness in Washington. By positioning himself as the candidate who can "fix the economy" and tackle issues like crime and immigration, he may sway undecided voters in key swing counties. His populist message, focusing on economic nationalism and a rejection of "woke" policies, could appeal to voters looking for a candidate who promises to disrupt the political establishment.

The Key Battlegrounds in Pennsylvania:

Philadelphia: Harris must dominate in turnout, especially in minority communities.
Pittsburgh: Harris needs strong margins in the city, while Trump must win in the surrounding counties.
Philadelphia Suburbs: Harris needs to expand her suburban base, while Trump must regain lost ground.
Rural Counties: Trump must dominate here and increase turnout to offset Harris’s urban advantages.

In short, Pennsylvania will come down to who can effectively mobilize their base by emphasizing key issues to win over crucial swing voters in the suburbs and industrial regions. Both campaigns will need a targeted strategy that addresses the diverse needs and concerns of Pennsylvania’s electorate. Each campaign must have incredible GOTV strategies and teams that leave no voter untouched.

The top battleground counties in Pennsylvania (red) – Allegheny, Bucks, Chester, Dauphin, Delaware, Lackawanna and Montgomery – and crucial Democrat turnout county (blue) – Philadelphia.

Ashlee Stephenson joined CNN’s The Lead with Jake Tapper this afternoon to discuss the judge’s decision to postpone former President Trump’s hush money sentencing until after the election

Fri, 06 Sep 2024 21:21:07 GMT

AxAdvocacy’s President Ashlee Stephenson joined CNN’s The Lead with Jake Tapper this afternoon to discuss the judge’s decision to postpone former President Trump’s hush money sentencing until after the election.
“There’s a really big debate next week, a chance to turn the page on all of this messaging, and get back to the focus on the economy, immigration, crime, the things that voters care about.”

Samantha Dravis joins Newsmax's Chris Plante Show to discuss how military families feel about Harris

Fri, 06 Sep 2024 21:19:50 GMT

“She’d rather perpetuate a lie than call the members of the Gold Star Families for the last three years that have never heard from her, she can’t be bothered to say their kids’ names, wasn’t present for the dignified transfer, and I hope that every American, I hope that every voter has a chance to watch the testimonies from those Gold Star Families and hear how military families really think about Kamala Harris.” - AxAdvocacy’s Samantha Dravis to Newsmax

Samantha Dravis Joins NewsNation To Discuss Harris's Policies

Fri, 06 Sep 2024 21:14:44 GMT

“Under the Harris-Biden administration, we’re seeing inflation rise to the highest it’s been in three decades, we’ve seen $8 trillion added to the debt because of the reckless and wasteful spending, we’re having absolute crisis levels of illegal immigration, and we’ve got a regulatory environment that is absolutely strangling our domestic energy industry.” – AxAdvocacy’s Samantha Dravis to NewsNation

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Caught in the Red Tape? How to Use Effective Advocacy to Get Things Moving

AxIndex, Edition 8

SNAPSHOT

Our Top 3:

National Sentiment Tracking

Democratic Overperformance in Special Elections Signals Shifting Environment

Support for Iran Strikes Stagnant as GOP Divides Deepen

HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

Retirements

Swalwell, Gonzales Resign Ahead of Expulsion Votes

Progressive Democrat Wins NJ Special Election, Reinforcing Party Momentum

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Redistricting

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SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

Retirements

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﻿ MAHA Movement Faces Early Test in Louisiana Senate Race

IN THE ﻿ STATES

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EMERGING NARRATIVES

The Check-Writers: Self-Funders Flood 2026 Congressional Races

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AxIndex, Edition 7

SNAPSHOT

Our Top 3:

National Sentiment Tracking

"DOUBLE HATERS" COULD DECIDE THE MIDTERMS

HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

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Retirements

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Redistricting

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SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

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Retirements

Polling At A Glance

IN THE ﻿ STATES

DEMOCRATS RAMP UP HISTORIC CANDIDATE RECRUITMENT FOR MIDTERMS

WISCONSIN SUPREME COURT RACE HIGHLIGHTS STAKES IN KEY BATTLEGROUND

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AxIndex, Edition 6

SNAPSHOT

Our Top 3:

National Sentiment Tracking

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HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

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Redistricting

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SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

Retirements

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Polling At A Glance

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State-Level Gains Signal Early Democratic Momentum

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EMERGING NARRATIVES

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ON THE HORIZON

AxIndex, Edition 5

MAHA Movement Faces Early Test in Louisiana Senate Race

IN THE STATES

IN THE STATES

IN THE STATES

IN THE STATES

IN THE STATES