Pennsylvania is THE Battleground State
As the presidential election heads into the home stretch, Pennsylvania has emerged as the top battleground state. Below is an analysis of what each campaign will be focused on in the run-up to Election Day from our Ax Pennsylvania team – Alex Rahn, Rob Brooks, Julia Vahey and Anthony Pontarelli.
Pennsylvania has historically played a decisive role in presidential races, and 2024 will be no exception. The Commonwealth is arguably the main battleground state that will determine who wins the 2024 election for the White House. Winning Pennsylvania will be critical for both the Harris and Trump campaigns.
However, polling in Pennsylvania has essentially been tied, so what will it take to win Pennsylvania in the next few weeks before Election Day?
While very few voters remain undecided, each campaign must focus on key get out the vote (GOTV) strategies and highlighting policy positions that will energize their supporters.
As in other states, the economy dominates as the top issue in most polls. Other topics, including abortion and immigration, will galvanize key voter blocs and drive turnout for the Harris and Trump campaigns on Election Day.
Additionally, the presidential election in Pennsylvania will likely determine the outcome of downballot races, including the US Senate race between incumbent Bob Casey (D) and challenger Dave McCormick (R), three other statewide row office campaigns, and even control of the PA General Assembly. Indeed, the current Democratic majority in the PA House of Representatives is held by one seat and control will likely come down to which presidential candidate carries key swing districts.
Harris Campaign: Keys to Winning Pennsylvania
- Maximizing Turnout in Philadelphia
Pennsylvania’s largest city, Philadelphia, is a Democratic stronghold, and Harris will need to drive high turnout to counterbalance Republican-leaning rural regions. The campaign must ensure that voters are energized by focusing on issues such as police reform, economic opportunity, reproductive rights, and health care access. A key tactic will be voter registration and turnout efforts, especially in historically underrepresented communities. - Winning Over the Philadelphia Suburbs
The “collar counties” around Philadelphia—Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, and Delaware—have trended Democratic over the last decade, and Trump has only accelerated this shift. In 2020, Biden won 54 percent of suburban voters, according to the Pew Research Center. Harris needs to not just maintain the margins Democrats secured in 2020 but expand on them by highlighting issues that connect with suburban voters, particularly women, and independents. Messaging around reproductive rights, education, gun control, and climate change could resonate in these affluent suburban areas. Economic stability and inflation concerns will also play a role, requiring a balanced message of prosperity and equity. - Limiting Losses Among Working-Class Voters in Pittsburgh and Western PA
Western Pennsylvania, particularly Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), has traditionally supported Democrats, but Trump made inroads with white working-class voters in surrounding areas. Harris will need to focus on turnout in Pittsburgh’s urban center while addressing the concerns of blue-collar voters in the more industrial parts of the region. Messaging around the economy, job creation, infrastructure, union support, and reliable energy jobs will be key to limiting losses among these working-class voters. However, Harris’s past support for a fracking ban will be toxic in Western Pennsylvania. - Reaching Out to Rural Voters in Central and Northern PA
Though rural Pennsylvania is solidly Republican; the Harris campaign cannot afford to ignore these voters entirely. By focusing on policies that affect farmers, small businesses, and rural healthcare, Harris may be able to reduce the Republican margins here. While winning these counties outright is unlikely, minimizing the deficit can be just as valuable in the overall vote tally. - Youth and College Voter Engagement
Pennsylvania is home to numerous colleges and universities, including Penn State, Temple, University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Pennsylvania. Harris will need to energize younger voters, who lean Democratic but often have lower turnout rates. Gen Z and Millennials played a large role in the 2022 midterms, voting heavily for Democratic candidates and exceeding their turnout from 2018. But a recent poll from CNN should serve as a warning flag for the Harris campaign. While Harris leads Trump among young voters, her margin is falling well short of Biden’s in 2020. The top issue among young voters, like every age group is the economy, and they are dissatisfied with the current direction of the country. Failure to address the Biden-Harris administration’s shortcomings on inflation, housing costs, and other key economic issues could be catastrophic for the Harris campaign. - Latino and Black Voter Turnout
The growing Latino population, particularly in cities like Philadelphia, Allentown, and Reading, represents an opportunity for Harris to expand her base. Outreach to Latino communities on immigration reform, healthcare, and economic opportunity will be crucial. Similarly, strong turnout among Black voters, especially in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, will be vital for Democratic success. However, recent polls have shown Harris performing worse than Biden among these voters, with Trump cutting into her margins among these traditionally Democratic-leaning demographics. If that trend holds, Harris will be hard-pressed to win in Pennsylvania.
Trump Campaign: Strategies for Winning Pennsylvania
- Maximizing Turnout in Rural and Small-Town Pennsylvania
Trump’s path to victory in Pennsylvania runs through its rural and small-town regions, particularly in central and northern Pennsylvania. This is the famous “T” that many national pundits reference, and is where Trump performed well in both 2016 and 2020. To win the state, Trump must not only replicate but surpass his previous margins in these areas by further mobilizing rural voters who feel disconnected from urban and coastal elites. However, Vice President Harris is putting up a fight for these voters; 16 of the Harris campaign's 50 offices are in predominantly rural counties that Trump carried in 2020 by double digits. The Harris campaign has also launched a new ad geared towards this bloc of voters on digital and radio, which is estimated to reach more than 500,000 likely voters who don’t live in metro areas around cities or suburban counties. The Trump campaign cannot afford to lose this base and must emphasize issues like deregulation, Second Amendment rights, and opposition to environmental policies seen as harmful to coal, gas, and manufacturing jobs, and obviously, his America First economic message will resonate deeply in these communities. - Holding Steady in the Pittsburgh Region
While Pittsburgh itself tends to vote Democratic, the surrounding counties—Westmoreland, Washington, Beaver, and Greene—are critical to Trump’s success. These areas have a strong working-class presence, many of whom feel aligned with Trump’s populist message. Trump must continue to highlight his America First economic policies, trade tariffs, and opposition to environmental regulations that are perceived as a threat to traditional industries. Reinforcing his commitment to manufacturing and traditional fossil fuel energy jobs could help secure this key voting bloc, as could reminding voters of Harris’s past support for banning fracking, an industry that employs or supports hundreds of thousands of western Pennsylvania jobs. - Chipping Away at the Suburban Vote
Trump lost substantial ground in the Philadelphia suburbs for his re-election in 2020, particularly among women and moderate Republicans. To win Pennsylvania in 2024, he’ll need to make significant inroads in these counties. His campaign will likely focus on crime, school choice, and inflation—issues that can resonate with suburban families concerned about safety and economic security. Targeting messaging toward suburban men, particularly on law and order and economic growth, while softening his image for women will be crucial. Voters in the Philadelphia Suburbs have also traditionally been ticket splitters with Democrat Presidential candidates winning the region since 1992 while the counties and local offices remained Republican until recently. While these counties are now mostly blue, registration numbers between Republican and Democrats do not reflect this, meaning Republican voters are now even more likely to vote for Democrat candidates up and down the ticket. Trump cannot take these moderate Republican voters for granted. A strong focus on the economy will be key to winning over these voters. - Making Gains with Latino and Black Voters
Trump made modest gains with minority voters in 2020, and he’ll need to build on that progress in Pennsylvania, particularly in urban areas like Philadelphia, Reading, and Allentown. His messaging should focus on economic opportunity, entrepreneurship, and school choice—issues that resonate with conservative-leaning segments of these communities. By focusing on law and order and criminal justice reform, Trump could further appeal to Latino and Black voters concerned about safety in their neighborhoods. - Turnout, Turnout, Turnout
For Trump, winning Pennsylvania means driving record turnout among his base. This includes not just rural voters but also disaffected Democrats, Independents, and non-college-educated white voters who were crucial to his 2016 win. Democrats currently have the slimmest voter registration advantage in decades. New registration data from the PA Department of State shows 3.9 million Pennsylvanians are registered Democrats compared to 3.5 million Republicans, and Republicans have seen an increase of 141,648 voters in the last ten months compared to a 33,478 increase for Democrats. The Trump campaign must capitalize on this momentum with a strong ground game focused on continued voter registration, GOTV efforts, embracing vote by mail, and ensuring that supporters turn up at the polls. - Targeting Voter Frustration
Trump can capitalize on frustrations with inflation, rising interest rates, and perceived ineffectiveness in Washington. By positioning himself as the candidate who can "fix the economy" and tackle issues like crime and immigration, he may sway undecided voters in key swing counties. His populist message, focusing on economic nationalism and a rejection of "woke" policies, could appeal to voters looking for a candidate who promises to disrupt the political establishment.
The Key Battlegrounds in Pennsylvania:
- Philadelphia: Harris must dominate in turnout, especially in minority communities.
- Pittsburgh: Harris needs strong margins in the city, while Trump must win in the surrounding counties.
- Philadelphia Suburbs: Harris needs to expand her suburban base, while Trump must regain lost ground.
- Rural Counties: Trump must dominate here and increase turnout to offset Harris’s urban advantages.
In short, Pennsylvania will come down to who can effectively mobilize their base by emphasizing key issues to win over crucial swing voters in the suburbs and industrial regions. Both campaigns will need a targeted strategy that addresses the diverse needs and concerns of Pennsylvania’s electorate. Each campaign must have incredible GOTV strategies and teams that leave no voter untouched.
The top battleground counties in Pennsylvania (red) – Allegheny, Bucks, Chester, Dauphin, Delaware, Lackawanna and Montgomery – and crucial Democrat turnout county (blue) – Philadelphia.
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The Morning After: Why Post-Election Planning Starts Now With less than three weeks until Election Day, nearly all the attention is on who will win. For organizations with business before government, the better question is what they will do the morning after. November 3 will reset the cast of characters, shift the leverage, and open one of the most compressed legislative windows of the year. The organizations that come out ahead will be the ones that planned for every outcome before the votes were counted. A Five-Week Sprint The current continuing resolution funds the government through December 11, leaving a lame-duck Congress about five weeks to deal with FY27 spending, the NDAA, a possible third reconciliation package, and expiring programs from surface transportation to healthcare. Many of those decisions will be made by members who just won, just lost, or are about to hand over the gavel. And as Bob Salera noted in his recent look at polling error , today's polling leads are provisional, so the smart move is to plan for every scenario, not just the forecast. What to Do Now The next three weeks are the best time an organization will have to prepare. Once results are in, every company, association, and coalition will be chasing the same new offices with the same requests. Get in front of new members early. Identify the candidates in open seats and competitive races who will matter to your issues, and be ready to reach out the day after the election with information about what you mean to their district. Those who show up early become trusted resources. Those who show up in February with an ask become one more meeting request. Know the new decision makers. New offices hire chiefs of staff and legislative directors between November and January, and retirements will open committee chairs no matter who wins. Know who is coming, who is next in line, and where they stand on your issues. Shape the narrative before someone else does. New members form their views quickly, often from what they read and hear at home. Have your story ready for local press, op-ed pages, and the trade outlets new staff will be reading in their first weeks. Bring local voices . Map your footprint in every district and state that matters, from employees and facilities to customers and community partners. A constituent in the room carries more weight than any one-pager. Line up your allies. Coalition partners, local leaders, and third-party validators who can carry your message matter even more with lawmakers who do not know you yet. Lock in your lame-duck asks. If your priority could ride on a funding bill, the NDAA, or an extender package, it needs to be drafted, socialized, and backed by allies before Congress returns. Be ready on day one. Prepare statements for every outcome, a briefing package built for new offices, and digital content ready to deploy the moment results are in. Don't Forget the States Thirty-six governorships and most state legislative chambers are on the ballot. New governors start building transition teams within days, and many legislatures convene in January. Every capital where you do business needs the same plan: relationships with incoming leaders and a message built for them. The Bottom Line Election Day ends the campaign, not the work. The relationships and narratives that will decide your issues in 2027 are taking shape now. At AxAdvocacy, we pair federal and state government relations with integrated public affairs campaigns, so our clients are in the room and in the conversation on day one.
Polling Error Is the Wild Card Heading Into November With four weeks until Election Day, Democrats are enjoying some of the most favorable polling they have seen in years. The question for anyone planning around November's results is a simple one: are the polls right? Recent history says that is far from guaranteed. In each of the last three election cycles, polls have missed in the same direction, and that direction has been toward Democrats. Three cycles, one direction Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin tracks the average statistical bias in polls taken during the final three weeks of each election cycle. The pattern since 2019 is hard to miss: • 2019-2020: polls overstated Democrats by 4.7 points across all offices • 2021-2022: polls overstated Democrats by 0.8 points • 2023-2024: polls overstated Democrats by 2.9 points Averaged together, that is a 2.8-point miss in Democrats' favor.
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The Post-Recess Congressional Outlook Congress returned from its five-week August recess and sent a bill to the President to fund the government through December 11, but the major fiscal and policy fights remain unresolved. That makes the CR a ceasefire, not a resolution — the fight over spending and policy is still ahead. The Clock The calendar is shrinking by the week. The House returned August 31, then canceled its remaining two full work weeks in September, leaving a single four-day session (September 14-17) before members leave for the campaign trail. The Senate has a bit more time, scheduled to stay in session through October 2. The September 30 fiscal-year deadline is no longer the immediate deadline because the CR extends funding through December 11. Neither chamber has the runway to finish the remaining major legislative agenda items before Election Day. The likely outcome is that decisions on government funding beyond December 11, the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act, and the fate of a third reconciliation package extend into the lame-duck session - decided by a Congress that may look different than the one sitting today. Appropriations & NDAA Appropriations and NDAA are traditional must-pass priorities. Reconciliation is optional. Appropriations remain the most immediate pressure point, and the December 11 deadline only buys time on the FY27 spending bills. All twelve have cleared the House Appropriations Committee, but only three have passed the full floor, and the Senate hasn't reported a single one out of committee. That disparity reflects the two chambers' unresolved fight over topline defense and non-defense spending levels. Absent a herculean effort by the leadership of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, passing any of the outstanding bills across both chambers by year's end is unlikely, and another stopgap will likely be necessary. After six decades of annual enactment, the odds are in favor of Congress ultimately producing an NDAA. The House passed its version in July by a narrow margin, authorizing roughly $250 billion more in defense spending than FY26 levels. The Senate's version is still pending, stalled since a failed July cloture vote, and even once it passes, a conference committee still has to reconcile the two chambers' different versions before anything reaches the President's desk. NDAA hasn't been signed into law before December in any of the last several cycles; last year's version wasn't signed until December 18, and this year is tracking the same way. With no official Senate passed product, the two chambers will begin informal conference discussions in earnest after the Congress officially breaks for the election season. Reconciliation 3.0 Reconciliation is the one item on this list Congress does not have to touch. Republicans already used the process once this year, passing a second reconciliation bill in June that provided roughly $70 billion in funding for ICE and CBP. A third package, built around Iran war funding, agricultural aid, and provisions tied to Republicans' election-law priorities, cleared the House in July, but the Senate has not advanced it. Majority Leader Thune has said he'd rather hold the framework in reserve as leverage for the funding fight than spend it on a standalone package before the election. Its prospects are likely to depend in significant part on how the funding negotiations develop as well as the election outcome. If one or both Chambers flip, look for Republicans to revisit reconciliation efforts as a last-ditch effort to provide funding to the Administration for key priorities prior to the new Congress. What the Election Changes The election will determine how much leverage each side has during the lame-duck period. With the election on November 3 and the CR expiring December 11, the lame-duck Congress would have roughly five weeks to resolve the next round of government funding. If Republicans retain both chambers, they can continue pursuing their legislative agenda, but the incentive to complete major priorities before the new Congress takes office would still depend on the size of their margins and the remaining legislative calendar. If Democrats win either chamber, the outgoing GOP majority faces greater pressure to resolve outstanding priorities before the new Congress takes office, when the balance of power could shift. That could create a final push to lock in NDAA authorization levels and take another run at reconciliation before new members take office in January. The Bottom Line The next sixty days matter more than the usual pre-election lull suggests. The major open questions: the FY27 spending bills, NDAA authorization levels, and whether Republicans pursue a third reconciliation bill, remain unresolved. Organizations with a stake in any of these three fights have a narrower window than usual to get specific asks attached before that happens, and that window closes well before Congress reconvenes in January.
