Pennsylvania is THE Battleground State
As the presidential election heads into the home stretch, Pennsylvania has emerged as the top battleground state. Below is an analysis of what each campaign will be focused on in the run-up to Election Day from our Ax Pennsylvania team – Alex Rahn, Rob Brooks, Julia Vahey and Anthony Pontarelli.
Pennsylvania has historically played a decisive role in presidential races, and 2024 will be no exception. The Commonwealth is arguably the main battleground state that will determine who wins the 2024 election for the White House. Winning Pennsylvania will be critical for both the Harris and Trump campaigns.
However, polling in Pennsylvania has essentially been tied, so what will it take to win Pennsylvania in the next few weeks before Election Day?
While very few voters remain undecided, each campaign must focus on key get out the vote (GOTV) strategies and highlighting policy positions that will energize their supporters.
As in other states, the economy dominates as the top issue in most polls. Other topics, including abortion and immigration, will galvanize key voter blocs and drive turnout for the Harris and Trump campaigns on Election Day.
Additionally, the presidential election in Pennsylvania will likely determine the outcome of downballot races, including the US Senate race between incumbent Bob Casey (D) and challenger Dave McCormick (R), three other statewide row office campaigns, and even control of the PA General Assembly. Indeed, the current Democratic majority in the PA House of Representatives is held by one seat and control will likely come down to which presidential candidate carries key swing districts.
Harris Campaign: Keys to Winning Pennsylvania
- Maximizing Turnout in Philadelphia
Pennsylvania’s largest city, Philadelphia, is a Democratic stronghold, and Harris will need to drive high turnout to counterbalance Republican-leaning rural regions. The campaign must ensure that voters are energized by focusing on issues such as police reform, economic opportunity, reproductive rights, and health care access. A key tactic will be voter registration and turnout efforts, especially in historically underrepresented communities. - Winning Over the Philadelphia Suburbs
The “collar counties” around Philadelphia—Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, and Delaware—have trended Democratic over the last decade, and Trump has only accelerated this shift. In 2020, Biden won 54 percent of suburban voters, according to the Pew Research Center. Harris needs to not just maintain the margins Democrats secured in 2020 but expand on them by highlighting issues that connect with suburban voters, particularly women, and independents. Messaging around reproductive rights, education, gun control, and climate change could resonate in these affluent suburban areas. Economic stability and inflation concerns will also play a role, requiring a balanced message of prosperity and equity. - Limiting Losses Among Working-Class Voters in Pittsburgh and Western PA
Western Pennsylvania, particularly Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), has traditionally supported Democrats, but Trump made inroads with white working-class voters in surrounding areas. Harris will need to focus on turnout in Pittsburgh’s urban center while addressing the concerns of blue-collar voters in the more industrial parts of the region. Messaging around the economy, job creation, infrastructure, union support, and reliable energy jobs will be key to limiting losses among these working-class voters. However, Harris’s past support for a fracking ban will be toxic in Western Pennsylvania. - Reaching Out to Rural Voters in Central and Northern PA
Though rural Pennsylvania is solidly Republican; the Harris campaign cannot afford to ignore these voters entirely. By focusing on policies that affect farmers, small businesses, and rural healthcare, Harris may be able to reduce the Republican margins here. While winning these counties outright is unlikely, minimizing the deficit can be just as valuable in the overall vote tally. - Youth and College Voter Engagement
Pennsylvania is home to numerous colleges and universities, including Penn State, Temple, University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Pennsylvania. Harris will need to energize younger voters, who lean Democratic but often have lower turnout rates. Gen Z and Millennials played a large role in the 2022 midterms, voting heavily for Democratic candidates and exceeding their turnout from 2018. But a recent poll from CNN should serve as a warning flag for the Harris campaign. While Harris leads Trump among young voters, her margin is falling well short of Biden’s in 2020. The top issue among young voters, like every age group is the economy, and they are dissatisfied with the current direction of the country. Failure to address the Biden-Harris administration’s shortcomings on inflation, housing costs, and other key economic issues could be catastrophic for the Harris campaign. - Latino and Black Voter Turnout
The growing Latino population, particularly in cities like Philadelphia, Allentown, and Reading, represents an opportunity for Harris to expand her base. Outreach to Latino communities on immigration reform, healthcare, and economic opportunity will be crucial. Similarly, strong turnout among Black voters, especially in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, will be vital for Democratic success. However, recent polls have shown Harris performing worse than Biden among these voters, with Trump cutting into her margins among these traditionally Democratic-leaning demographics. If that trend holds, Harris will be hard-pressed to win in Pennsylvania.
Trump Campaign: Strategies for Winning Pennsylvania
- Maximizing Turnout in Rural and Small-Town Pennsylvania
Trump’s path to victory in Pennsylvania runs through its rural and small-town regions, particularly in central and northern Pennsylvania. This is the famous “T” that many national pundits reference, and is where Trump performed well in both 2016 and 2020. To win the state, Trump must not only replicate but surpass his previous margins in these areas by further mobilizing rural voters who feel disconnected from urban and coastal elites. However, Vice President Harris is putting up a fight for these voters; 16 of the Harris campaign's 50 offices are in predominantly rural counties that Trump carried in 2020 by double digits. The Harris campaign has also launched a new ad geared towards this bloc of voters on digital and radio, which is estimated to reach more than 500,000 likely voters who don’t live in metro areas around cities or suburban counties. The Trump campaign cannot afford to lose this base and must emphasize issues like deregulation, Second Amendment rights, and opposition to environmental policies seen as harmful to coal, gas, and manufacturing jobs, and obviously, his America First economic message will resonate deeply in these communities. - Holding Steady in the Pittsburgh Region
While Pittsburgh itself tends to vote Democratic, the surrounding counties—Westmoreland, Washington, Beaver, and Greene—are critical to Trump’s success. These areas have a strong working-class presence, many of whom feel aligned with Trump’s populist message. Trump must continue to highlight his America First economic policies, trade tariffs, and opposition to environmental regulations that are perceived as a threat to traditional industries. Reinforcing his commitment to manufacturing and traditional fossil fuel energy jobs could help secure this key voting bloc, as could reminding voters of Harris’s past support for banning fracking, an industry that employs or supports hundreds of thousands of western Pennsylvania jobs. - Chipping Away at the Suburban Vote
Trump lost substantial ground in the Philadelphia suburbs for his re-election in 2020, particularly among women and moderate Republicans. To win Pennsylvania in 2024, he’ll need to make significant inroads in these counties. His campaign will likely focus on crime, school choice, and inflation—issues that can resonate with suburban families concerned about safety and economic security. Targeting messaging toward suburban men, particularly on law and order and economic growth, while softening his image for women will be crucial. Voters in the Philadelphia Suburbs have also traditionally been ticket splitters with Democrat Presidential candidates winning the region since 1992 while the counties and local offices remained Republican until recently. While these counties are now mostly blue, registration numbers between Republican and Democrats do not reflect this, meaning Republican voters are now even more likely to vote for Democrat candidates up and down the ticket. Trump cannot take these moderate Republican voters for granted. A strong focus on the economy will be key to winning over these voters. - Making Gains with Latino and Black Voters
Trump made modest gains with minority voters in 2020, and he’ll need to build on that progress in Pennsylvania, particularly in urban areas like Philadelphia, Reading, and Allentown. His messaging should focus on economic opportunity, entrepreneurship, and school choice—issues that resonate with conservative-leaning segments of these communities. By focusing on law and order and criminal justice reform, Trump could further appeal to Latino and Black voters concerned about safety in their neighborhoods. - Turnout, Turnout, Turnout
For Trump, winning Pennsylvania means driving record turnout among his base. This includes not just rural voters but also disaffected Democrats, Independents, and non-college-educated white voters who were crucial to his 2016 win. Democrats currently have the slimmest voter registration advantage in decades. New registration data from the PA Department of State shows 3.9 million Pennsylvanians are registered Democrats compared to 3.5 million Republicans, and Republicans have seen an increase of 141,648 voters in the last ten months compared to a 33,478 increase for Democrats. The Trump campaign must capitalize on this momentum with a strong ground game focused on continued voter registration, GOTV efforts, embracing vote by mail, and ensuring that supporters turn up at the polls. - Targeting Voter Frustration
Trump can capitalize on frustrations with inflation, rising interest rates, and perceived ineffectiveness in Washington. By positioning himself as the candidate who can "fix the economy" and tackle issues like crime and immigration, he may sway undecided voters in key swing counties. His populist message, focusing on economic nationalism and a rejection of "woke" policies, could appeal to voters looking for a candidate who promises to disrupt the political establishment.
The Key Battlegrounds in Pennsylvania:
- Philadelphia: Harris must dominate in turnout, especially in minority communities.
- Pittsburgh: Harris needs strong margins in the city, while Trump must win in the surrounding counties.
- Philadelphia Suburbs: Harris needs to expand her suburban base, while Trump must regain lost ground.
- Rural Counties: Trump must dominate here and increase turnout to offset Harris’s urban advantages.
In short, Pennsylvania will come down to who can effectively mobilize their base by emphasizing key issues to win over crucial swing voters in the suburbs and industrial regions. Both campaigns will need a targeted strategy that addresses the diverse needs and concerns of Pennsylvania’s electorate. Each campaign must have incredible GOTV strategies and teams that leave no voter untouched.
The top battleground counties in Pennsylvania (red) – Allegheny, Bucks, Chester, Dauphin, Delaware, Lackawanna and Montgomery – and crucial Democrat turnout county (blue) – Philadelphia.
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The DSA Surge: What Socialist Primary Wins Mean for Business and the Policy Landscape In the span of two election cycles, the Democratic Socialists of America have gone from insurgent outsiders to a genuine force inside the Democratic Party. A new analysis of DSA's national endorsement record shows 25 primary wins across 15 states so far in the 2025-2026 cycle, a 62 percent success rate stretching from New York city councils to congressional primaries in Pennsylvania and Colorado. The trend is accelerating, and its implications run well beyond the halls of Congress. A Narrow Majority and a Familiar Problem The most immediate political concern is what happens on Capitol Hill if Democrats win the House with a thin margin. Hakeem Jeffries would face the same arithmetic Kevin McCarthy encountered with the House Freedom Caucus: a small group of ideologically committed members can hold a majority hostage. McCarthy was driven from the speakership in October 2023 by fewer than ten members. A larger DSA-aligned caucus, operating from the opposite end of the spectrum with fresh electoral mandates and no institutional loyalty to leadership, could prove equally disruptive. The Squad has already shown a willingness to break with Democratic leadership on appropriations, foreign policy, and procedural votes. More members with the same ideological profile and stronger grassroots backing would only amplify that dynamic. The Bigger Story Is Not Congress Congress gets the attention, but state legislatures and local governments set the conditions in which businesses actually operate. DSA candidates have won primaries in Georgia's state house, Minnesota's city councils, and city councils from New Jersey to Wisconsin to Arizona. These offices are pipelines. Today's Ithaca city councilmember is tomorrow's state legislator. The ideology rarely moderates as candidates advance. DSA's tracker shows an overall candidate win rate just above 50 percent since 2016, but the trend line matters: their 2025 cycle rate hit 62 percent, among the highest in their history. They are getting better at targeting winnable races, recruiting credible candidates, and turning out their base in low-turnout primaries where a motivated minority can determine outcomes. What It Means for Business in Blue States DSA's platform is not a vague progressive wish list. It calls for high progressive taxation, aggressive labor mandates, rent control, restructuring or defunding police, and opposition to most market-rate development. In jurisdictions where DSA-backed officials hold real power, those positions have translated into tangible policy. Minneapolis, where DSA holds several city council seats, has moved aggressively on landlord restrictions and business tax increases. San Francisco, where DSA-backed supervisor Dean Preston held power for years, saw some of the most restrictive commercial policies of any major American city before his 2024 defeat. Chicago's DSA aldermanic bloc has been a consistent source of opposition to development and public safety investment. These are not abstract ideological disputes. They represent direct compliance costs, operational risk, and a fundamentally less hospitable environment for investment. The National Drag, the State-Level Threat Nationally, a Democratic Party increasingly defined by its socialist wing faces real structural vulnerabilities. The 2024 results underscored how badly economic anxiety and perceptions of ideological overreach damage Democrats with working-class voters. An overtly socialist brand does not win back those voters. In competitive states and districts, it is a liability. But DSA does not need to win nationally to reshape policy. In blue states, a narrow legislative majority is enough to pass sweeping changes to tax policy, labor law, zoning, and regulatory structure. The voters most affected by those policies often have no political recourse. They cannot flip the state, and moving is not always an option. The Bottom Line DSA's electoral growth is not a narrative. It is a documented trend with a consistent track record across eight years and nearly 300 tracked candidates. For business and advocacy organizations, the lesson is that down-ballot primaries are where the policy environment is actually determined. A city council race in Milwaukee or a state house primary in Georgia does not generate national headlines, but it shapes the regulatory and tax climate that affects daily operations. Monitoring these races, engaging early, and understanding who holds office at every level of government matters more now than at any point in recent memory. The decisions being made in city council chambers today are the legislation being voted on in state capitals in five years.
President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined Steve Scully on SiriusXM POTUS to discuss the U.S. Senate landscape. Ashlee stated, "If I'm a Democratic operative, I'm hoping Haley Stevens pulls this out. Nominating a Democratic Socialist of America-backed candidate to run statewide in a true battleground would present real challenges for Democrats. If we start seeing Democratic Socialist of America candidates winning Senate nominations in states like Michigan, it signals a broader shift with implications that extend to the Electoral College, the presidency, and the future of free enterprise." And prior to the breaking news on Platner re-evaluating his campaign, they also covered Maine's Senate race, where Ashlee argued that Sen. Susan Collins remains in a strong position. Collins' long-standing reputation and the value Mainers place on character make the race far more challenging for Democrats than many expected, turning what was once viewed as a top pickup opportunity into a much more difficult path. Watch the full analysis of the 2026 U.S. Senate landscape here:
State of Play: Five Things We Are Tracking As Congress limps into the July 4th recess, it appears that the legislative agenda will remain in gridlock. The ongoing disagreements will ultimately define the remainder of the summer and fall calendar. SAVE America Act rebellion is freezing the House floor. A group of House conservatives have twice blocked procedural rules this week, demanding that leadership force action on the SAVE America Act. The faction has stalled many must-pass items and sent members home early for the second week in a row. Speaker Johnson needs near-unanimous GOP support to move anything with such a razor-thin majority. FY27 NDAA a victim of House Gridlock. The House Armed Services Committee has released a $1.15 trillion topline NDAA, with Chairman Rogers framing it around industrial base revitalization and getting to the administration's defense spending target. As of this week, the bill is caught in the SAVE America Act crossfire, with Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's push to attach the voter ID measure via amendment threatening to sink it in the Senate, where it needs Democratic votes to clear a filibuster. FY27 appropriations are inching forward. The House has passed two FY27 spending bills (MilCon-VA and Agriculture-FDA) and was set to take up the State Foreign Operations bill this week before the SAVE Act revolt punted it again. With the Senate in recess for two weeks, and the end of the fiscal year fast approaching, the path to a full-year deal versus another continuing resolution remains in question. Surface transportation reauthorization is racing against a September 30 deadline. With the IIJA's five-year authorization set to expire on September 30, the House T&I Committee advanced the bipartisan $580 billion BUILD America 250 Act (H.R. 8870) out of committee with a bipartisan 62-2 vote in May championed by Chairman Graves and Ranking Member Larsen. Floor time has not yet been announced, but committee leadership is hopeful it will be secured before the August recess. The Senate hasn't released its proposal yet, but early signals suggest strong continuity with the House version, with a streamlined return to the legislation’s original core functions. The urgency to move is driven by a very real funding problem: the Highway Trust Fund is projected to run dry by 2028, the House bill addresses this with a new EV and hybrid fees. Senate Appropriations markups keep getting delayed. Movement is expected once the Senate returns from its two-week recess. Senate Appropriations has postponed its full-committee markups of Agriculture-FDA, Commerce-Justice-Science, Legislative Branch, and MilCon-VA for the fourth time. Defense Subcommittee Chairman Mitch McConnell's hospitalization left Republicans short a vote. He is anticipated to return later this month.
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