A Spring Congressional Update: What to Watch in the Months Ahead

A Spring Congressional Update: What to Watch in the Months Ahead


After a busy first four months of the year and with the remaining legislative calendar shrinking, it’s time to take a fresh look at the outlook for the three-month Congressional sprint to August. 


Appropriations: A Fresh Start — and Early Pressure


In our January outlook, Congress was staring down a January 30th funding deadline. After one of the most turbulent funding cycles in recent memory — including a 43-day government shutdown last fall that became the longest in modern history — Congress managed to complete 11 of the 12 FY2026 appropriations bills. Congress recently released funding for the Department of Homeland Security – sans ICE and CBP – but only after swiftly approving a budget resolution to tee up a second reconciliation bill intended to provide multi-year funding for the immigration and border enforcement agencies.


Now the clock is already ticking on FY2027 funding. The House is well underway, having reported out five Appropriations bills in the last two weeks of April. The House Appropriations Committee has laid out an ambitious markup schedule to complete its committee work by June. On the other side of the Hill, the Senate has held a flurry of hearings in April to examine the Administration’s budget request, with Administration officials making regular appearances before the Committee as the Senate charts its path for FY2027 funding bills. Whether Congress can complete some or any of these bills before the October 1 deadline, or whether the government once again stumbles into another continuing resolution or shutdown, remains the central fiscal question of the year. Whether it’s Vegas or Kalshi, the safe money is on a continuing resolution at least through the end of the year in order to avoid a messy spending fight a month before the midterm elections. 


Defense: Boosting the Budget, Expanding Priorities


Boosting defense spending remains a top Administration priority, which has taken on increased importance as the military engagement with Iran has dragged on and strained military stockpiles. The Administration's new budget request proposes boosting defense spending to roughly $1.5 trillion — a sharp increase that Congress will have to grapple with as it approaches the NDAA and Appropriations bills this year.


Traditionally, Congressional Appropriators tee up the defense funding bill early in the process, but in the House, it is currently scheduled to be the last bill to move through Committee, reflecting uncertainty over how to tackle the Administration’s request. A third reconciliation or a separate bipartisan supplemental funding bill are also options but face significant headwinds in the near term. The FY2027 NDAA is on the (short) list of bills Congress should get done this year with a June 4th mark-up scheduled in the House. The question is whether it becomes a lame duck Christmas tree. 


Transportation: A Must-Pass Deadline Looms


Aside from the annual defense and appropriations work, the biggest legislative item on Congress's plate is the surface transportation reauthorization. The current authorization expires on September 30, 2026. Congress must either pass a new multi-year highway bill or risk leaving states without the long-term funding certainty they need to execute major infrastructure projects.


Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has been vocal about his "America is Building Again" agenda, pushing to streamline permitting and give states more control over environmental reviews. On the Hill, all eyes are on House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Sam Graves and Ranking Member Rick Larsen as speculation over a markup date and an impending deal continues to dominate conversations in transportation circles. Optimists (me included) believe that the Graves-Larsen dynamic duo will strike a deal that will bring along a bipartisan coalition and reinvigorate business and labor stakeholders, and that a bill is possible this year. The theory goes that momentum from the House could spur action in the Senate, yet every week that passes makes it more difficult. 



Additionally, water infrastructure, aviation safety and additional funding for air traffic control are on the agenda, and Congress is likely to act on these issues before the year concludes.


The Bottom Line


Congress enters the second half of the fiscal year with a full agenda and real deadlines but as the saying goes, the outlook is as clear as mud. A second and possibly third reconciliation bill shows that Republicans are looking to create additional pathways to advance their remaining priorities. A possible surface transportation bill, defense authorization, and end of year funding will all be big targets as the ‘last trains to leave the station’ after the midterms.

Jack Ruddy

Senior Vice President of Government Relations

AxAdvocacy Launches Full-Service California Government Relations Practice with Addition of Veteran Lobbyist Joe Devine

By Bob Salera • August 3, 2026
Firm significantly expands its presence in the nation's largest state economy, offering clients a fully integrated federal, state, local, and public affairs platform.

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The DSA Surge: What Socialist Primary Wins Mean for Business and the Policy Landscape

By Bob Salera • July 9, 2026
The DSA Surge: What Socialist Primary Wins Mean for Business and the Policy Landscape In the span of two election cycles, the Democratic Socialists of America have gone from insurgent outsiders to a genuine force inside the Democratic Party. A new analysis of DSA's national endorsement record shows 25 primary wins across 15 states so far in the 2025-2026 cycle, a 62 percent success rate stretching from New York city councils to congressional primaries in Pennsylvania and Colorado. The trend is accelerating, and its implications run well beyond the halls of Congress. A Narrow Majority and a Familiar Problem The most immediate political concern is what happens on Capitol Hill if Democrats win the House with a thin margin. Hakeem Jeffries would face the same arithmetic Kevin McCarthy encountered with the House Freedom Caucus: a small group of ideologically committed members can hold a majority hostage. McCarthy was driven from the speakership in October 2023 by fewer than ten members. A larger DSA-aligned caucus, operating from the opposite end of the spectrum with fresh electoral mandates and no institutional loyalty to leadership, could prove equally disruptive. The Squad has already shown a willingness to break with Democratic leadership on appropriations, foreign policy, and procedural votes. More members with the same ideological profile and stronger grassroots backing would only amplify that dynamic. The Bigger Story Is Not Congress Congress gets the attention, but state legislatures and local governments set the conditions in which businesses actually operate. DSA candidates have won primaries in Georgia's state house, Minnesota's city councils, and city councils from New Jersey to Wisconsin to Arizona. These offices are pipelines. Today's Ithaca city councilmember is tomorrow's state legislator. The ideology rarely moderates as candidates advance. DSA's tracker shows an overall candidate win rate just above 50 percent since 2016, but the trend line matters: their 2025 cycle rate hit 62 percent, among the highest in their history. They are getting better at targeting winnable races, recruiting credible candidates, and turning out their base in low-turnout primaries where a motivated minority can determine outcomes. What It Means for Business in Blue States DSA's platform is not a vague progressive wish list. It calls for high progressive taxation, aggressive labor mandates, rent control, restructuring or defunding police, and opposition to most market-rate development. In jurisdictions where DSA-backed officials hold real power, those positions have translated into tangible policy. Minneapolis, where DSA holds several city council seats, has moved aggressively on landlord restrictions and business tax increases. San Francisco, where DSA-backed supervisor Dean Preston held power for years, saw some of the most restrictive commercial policies of any major American city before his 2024 defeat. Chicago's DSA aldermanic bloc has been a consistent source of opposition to development and public safety investment. These are not abstract ideological disputes. They represent direct compliance costs, operational risk, and a fundamentally less hospitable environment for investment. The National Drag, the State-Level Threat Nationally, a Democratic Party increasingly defined by its socialist wing faces real structural vulnerabilities. The 2024 results underscored how badly economic anxiety and perceptions of ideological overreach damage Democrats with working-class voters. An overtly socialist brand does not win back those voters. In competitive states and districts, it is a liability. But DSA does not need to win nationally to reshape policy. In blue states, a narrow legislative majority is enough to pass sweeping changes to tax policy, labor law, zoning, and regulatory structure. The voters most affected by those policies often have no political recourse. They cannot flip the state, and moving is not always an option. The Bottom Line DSA's electoral growth is not a narrative. It is a documented trend with a consistent track record across eight years and nearly 300 tracked candidates. For business and advocacy organizations, the lesson is that down-ballot primaries are where the policy environment is actually determined. A city council race in Milwaukee or a state house primary in Georgia does not generate national headlines, but it shapes the regulatory and tax climate that affects daily operations. Monitoring these races, engaging early, and understanding who holds office at every level of government matters more now than at any point in recent memory. The decisions being made in city council chambers today are the legislation being voted on in state capitals in five years.

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

By Ashlee Stephenson • July 7, 2026
President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined Steve Scully on SiriusXM POTUS to discuss the U.S. Senate landscape. Ashlee stated, "If I'm a Democratic operative, I'm hoping Haley Stevens pulls this out. Nominating a Democratic Socialist of America-backed candidate to run statewide in a true battleground would present real challenges for Democrats. If we start seeing Democratic Socialist of America candidates winning Senate nominations in states like Michigan, it signals a broader shift with implications that extend to the Electoral College, the presidency, and the future of free enterprise." And prior to the breaking news on Platner re-evaluating his campaign, they also covered Maine's Senate race, where Ashlee argued that Sen. Susan Collins remains in a strong position. Collins' long-standing reputation and the value Mainers place on character make the race far more challenging for Democrats than many expected, turning what was once viewed as a top pickup opportunity into a much more difficult path. Watch the full analysis of the 2026 U.S. Senate landscape here:

State of Play: Five Things We Are Tracking

By Kelly McElhaney • July 1, 2026
State of Play: Five Things We Are Tracking As Congress limps into the July 4th recess, it appears that the legislative agenda will remain in gridlock. The ongoing disagreements will ultimately define the remainder of the summer and fall calendar. SAVE America Act rebellion is freezing the House floor. A group of House conservatives have twice blocked procedural rules this week, demanding that leadership force action on the SAVE America Act. The faction has stalled many must-pass items and sent members home early for the second week in a row. Speaker Johnson needs near-unanimous GOP support to move anything with such a razor-thin majority. FY27 NDAA a victim of House Gridlock. The House Armed Services Committee has released a $1.15 trillion topline NDAA, with Chairman Rogers framing it around industrial base revitalization and getting to the administration's defense spending target. As of this week, the bill is caught in the SAVE America Act crossfire, with Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's push to attach the voter ID measure via amendment threatening to sink it in the Senate, where it needs Democratic votes to clear a filibuster. FY27 appropriations are inching forward. The House has passed two FY27 spending bills (MilCon-VA and Agriculture-FDA) and was set to take up the State Foreign Operations bill this week before the SAVE Act revolt punted it again. With the Senate in recess for two weeks, and the end of the fiscal year fast approaching, the path to a full-year deal versus another continuing resolution remains in question. Surface transportation reauthorization is racing against a September 30 deadline. With the IIJA's five-year authorization set to expire on September 30, the House T&I Committee advanced the bipartisan $580 billion BUILD America 250 Act (H.R. 8870) out of committee with a bipartisan 62-2 vote in May championed by Chairman Graves and Ranking Member Larsen. Floor time has not yet been announced, but committee leadership is hopeful it will be secured before the August recess. The Senate hasn't released its proposal yet, but early signals suggest strong continuity with the House version, with a streamlined return to the legislation’s original core functions. The urgency to move is driven by a very real funding problem: the Highway Trust Fund is projected to run dry by 2028, the House bill addresses this with a new EV and hybrid fees. Senate Appropriations markups keep getting delayed. Movement is expected once the Senate returns from its two-week recess. Senate Appropriations has postponed its full-committee markups of Agriculture-FDA, Commerce-Justice-Science, Legislative Branch, and MilCon-VA for the fourth time. Defense Subcommittee Chairman Mitch McConnell's hospitalization left Republicans short a vote. He is anticipated to return later this month.