AxIndex, Edition 8

 

SNAPSHOT

 

Our Top 3:


1) Money Is Flooding the Map, But the Battlefield Is Narrowing
Q1 fundraising underscores a clear trend: both parties are entering the midterms with significant financial firepower, but Republicans maintain a structural advantage through outside groups and cash on hand. The NRCC posted a record-breaking quarter, while GOP-aligned super PACs are planning nearly $350 million to defend the Senate. At the same time, Democrats are often outraising Republicans at the candidate level in key battlegrounds. The result is a high-dollar cycle focused on a shrinking universe of truly competitive races, where outside spending and resource allocation will likely determine control.


2) Democratic Overperformance Is Real, and the Map Is Starting to Respond
Democrats have overperformed 2024 benchmarks in roughly 85% of special elections since Trump took office, including flips in deep-red districts and a win in a Florida seat covering Mar-a-Lago. That momentum is beginning to show up in the broader landscape, with key Senate races shifting left and Republicans facing a more difficult national environment tied to Trump’s approval and economic concerns. While the path to a Senate majority remains narrow, the trajectory is improving for Democrats. The big question now is whether these early signals translate to higher-turnout midterm conditions.


3) Redistricting Wars Enter the Final Stretch 

Virginia and Florida have emerged as the last major redistricting battlegrounds before the midterms, with both parties attempting aggressive mid-decade map changes to gain an edge. In Virginia, Democrats are pushing a referendum that could net up to four seats, backed by tens of millions in outside spending and high-profile surrogates, including ads featuring Obama. In Florida, Republicans are weighing new maps amid legal constraints and internal concerns about overreach. With limited time before filing deadlines and primaries, these late-stage map fights could meaningfully shape the House battlefield, and may be one of the last opportunities to structurally shift the map before November.

 

National Sentiment Tracking

 

Democratic Overperformance in Special Elections Signals Shifting Environment

A new analysis of 229 elections since President Donald Trump took office shows Democrats consistently outperforming their 2024 baseline, with candidates exceeding former Vice President Kamala Harris’ margins in roughly 85% of races. On average, Democrats are running about 5 points stronger, with some special elections swinging dramatically, even in districts Trump carried, suggesting broad-based movement rather than isolated gains.


While both parties caution that low-turnout special elections are an imperfect predictor of midterm outcomes, the trend mirrors past cycles where early overperformance foreshadowed major shifts. Democrats attribute gains to energized turnout and a focus on affordability issues, while Republicans argue the dynamics will change in higher-turnout elections. Still, the consistency across states and districts points to a political environment that has moved leftward since 2024, raising the stakes for both parties heading into 2026. Read More.

Support for Iran Strikes Stagnant as GOP Divides Deepen

Public opinion on the Iran conflict remains tepid, with just 35% of Americans approving of U.S. military strikes, a figure that has held steady over the past month. Separate polling shows only about a quarter of Americans believe the war has been worth the costs, reinforcing broader skepticism as the conflict drags on.


The data also highlights emerging fractures within the Republican coalition. Younger Republicans are significantly less supportive of the strikes than those over 45, adding to divides between MAGA and non-MAGA voters. With soft support, even within the GOP base, the issue could present messaging challenges as the midterms approach. Read More.

HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

House
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 47.6 Dem - 41.6 GOP (D +6.0)
On this day in:

2022: 46.1 GOP - 42.5 Dem (R+3.6)

2018: 46.3 Dem - 38.8 GOP (D+7.5)

Retirements

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House. 

Swalwell, Gonzales Resign Ahead of Expulsion Votes

Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) resigned from Congress just before the House was expected to move forward with expulsion votes over separate sexual misconduct scandals. Facing bipartisan pressure and looming ethics investigations, both lawmakers stepped down to avoid a rare and highly public removal process.


Their departures reflect a growing willingness from members of both parties to push for accountability, particularly in cases involving misconduct. At the same time, the episode underscores the challenges House leaders face in balancing due process, political realities, and maintaining a razor-thin majority, with additional ethics cases still pending. Read More.

Progressive Democrat Wins NJ Special Election, Reinforcing Party Momentum

Progressive activist Analilia Mejia defeated Republican Joe Hathaway 60–40 in a New Jersey special election, continuing a streak of Democratic overperformance heading into the 2026 midterms. The race, called minutes after polls closed, fills a seat vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill and keeps a once-competitive district firmly in Democratic hands.


Despite significant outside spending against her in the primary, Mejia's victory highlights both grassroots energy and shifting dynamics within the Democratic coalition. While Republicans downplayed the result given low turnout, the margin adds to a broader pattern of Democratic strength in special elections, offering another early signal of the political environment ahead of November. Read More.

House GOP Posts Record Fundraising as Both Parties Claim Momentum

House Republicans are touting a record-breaking $47.1 million first-quarter fundraising haul through the NRCC, narrowly outpacing Democrats and signaling strong donor engagement as they work to defend a slim majority. GOP leaders argue the numbers reflect confidence in their ability to withstand traditional midterm headwinds, with President Donald Trump playing a central role in energizing donors and campaign infrastructure.


Still, the broader picture remains competitive. Democrats are close behind in fundraising and point to strong candidate performance and overperformance in recent elections as evidence of their own momentum. With economic concerns continuing to dominate voter sentiment, both parties are entering the cycle well-funded and framing the midterms as a referendum on economic leadership, setting up a tightly contested fight for control of the House. Read More.

Redistricting

Virginia Redistricting Vote Marked by Confusion and Heavy Spending

Virginia’s high-stakes redistricting referendum heads to voters on April 21, but widespread confusion over ballot language, dueling ads, and competing campaign names is clouding the issue.


Both sides are accusing each other of misleading voters, while contradictory messaging, from TV spots to mailers, has made it difficult for many to understand what a “yes” or “no” vote actually means.


Behind the confusion is a flood of outside spending, with more than $60 million, largely from dark-money groups, powering the pro-redistricting campaign alone. The proposed map could shift multiple House seats toward Democrats, raising the national stakes. With turnout uncertain, analysts say the outcome may ultimately hinge less on persuasion and more on which side can better mobilize voters in the final days. Read More.

Florida Redistricting Session Delayed as Stakes and Scope Expand

Florida’s special session on redistricting has been delayed one week, with Gov. Ron DeSantis pushing it to April 28 while signaling he will take the lead on proposing new congressional maps. The delay adds uncertainty to one of the final major redistricting battlegrounds, where Republicans are considering mid-decade changes to help maintain control of the House.


DeSantis is also using the session to revive stalled priorities, including expanded vaccine exemptions and an “AI Bill of Rights,” broadening the scope beyond redistricting. The process is expected to face significant legal challenges, and the timing, combined with White House interest in reshaping maps, underscores the high political stakes heading into the 2026 midterms. Read More.

SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

Recent Polls


Co/efficient (TX GOP Runoff): Cornyn (i) 44, Paxton (R) 43
Data for Progress (MI Dem Primary): Stevens 23, McMorrow 22, El-Sayed 22
Emerson (MI Dem Primary): McMorrow 24, El-Sayed 24, Stevens 13
Boston Globe/Suffolk (MA Dem Primary): Markey (i) 47, Moulton 30
High Point/YouGov (NC General): Cooper (D) 50, Whatley (R) 42



Cook Ratings

Likely D: MN (Open D)
Lean D: GA (Ossoff) NC (Open R), NH (Open D)
Tossup: ME (Collins - R), MI (Open - D), OH - Special (Husted)
Lean R: AK (Sullivan)
Likely R: IA (Open - R), NE (Ricketts), TX (Cornyn)


Retirements

So far, 11 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.

Cook Shifts Senate Map Toward Democrats, But GOP Still Poised to Hold Slim Control

The Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races toward Democrats, citing a worsening national environment for Republicans, but still projects the GOP as the favorite to retain control of the chamber. Key moves include North Carolina and Georgia shifting to “Lean Democrat,” while Ohio moved to “Toss Up” and Nebraska to “Lean Republican,” signaling a more competitive map.


Despite the movement, structural advantages still favor Republicans, with Democrats needing four seats to win a majority and facing challenging races and primary divisions in several states. Analysts point to President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings and issues such as the war in Iran and rising costs as headwinds for the GOP, but note that the outlook could shift depending on political and economic conditions in the months ahead. Read More.



Democrats Lead Candidate Fundraising as GOP Leans on Outside Money

Democratic candidates are outraising their Republican counterparts across nearly every major Senate battleground, including significant advantages in states like Texas, Georgia, and Ohio. High-profile races show wide gaps, with candidates like James Talarico, Jon Ossoff, and Sherrod Brown bringing in substantially more through their campaign committees.


However, Republicans are offsetting that disadvantage with a strong edge in outside spending, as GOP-aligned super PACs and donor networks pour millions into key races. The split highlights a defining dynamic of the 2026 cycle: Democrats are building strength at the candidate level, while Republicans rely on well-funded outside groups to defend their majority in a competitive map. Read More.


MAHA Movement Faces Early Test in Louisiana Senate Race

The “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) movement is getting its first real electoral test in Louisiana’s Senate primary, but early signs suggest limited impact. Despite endorsing Rep. Julia Letlow and pledging support, MAHA-affiliated groups have spent relatively little and failed to consolidate backing, while the race remains dominated by traditional GOP dynamics, particularly loyalty to Donald Trump and cost-of-living concerns.


The fragmented approach and modest resources raise questions about MAHA’s ability to translate its grassroots energy into political influence ahead of the midterms. While the movement has ambitions to shape races nationally, its uneven presence in Louisiana suggests it may remain more aligned with Trump’s coalition than a standalone force. Read More.

IN THE STATES

States Push Back as Data Center Boom Sparks Midterm Tensions

Data center expansion is quickly becoming a state-level political flashpoint, with at least 11 states introducing legislation to restrict or halt development amid growing concerns over power usage, water strain, and local infrastructure. Maine is on track to become the first state to impose a temporary ban, while others are exploring limits tied to environmental impact, energy costs, and consumer protections, signaling a broader wave of state-led action in the absence of federal policy. 


The issue is cutting across party lines, forcing governors and state lawmakers to balance economic growth and AI investment against rising constituent backlash. With proposals ranging from outright moratoriums to tighter regulations, how states respond could shape not only local economies but also national political narratives around energy, affordability, and technological expansion heading into 2026. Read More.

EMERGING NARRATIVES

The Check-Writers: Self-Funders Flood 2026 Congressional Races

Wealthy candidates are betting their own fortunes on congressional seats across the country in 2026. In Maryland's 6th District, David Trone, co-founder of Total Wine & More and one of the biggest self-funders in congressional history, has already poured more than $10 million into a primary challenge against the incumbent he personally endorsed to succeed him (read more). In San Francisco, former AOC chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti has self-funded nearly $5 million chasing Nancy Pelosi's open seat while raising just $61,000 from actual donors so far this year (read more). Three Democrats in New Jersey’s competitive 7th District primary enter the final stretch with similar cash on hand, but only Rebecca Bennett built her war chest entirely from donor fundraising, while her opponents rely heavily on self-funding (read more).

The pattern reflects a broader trend that has reshaped congressional campaigns for years. Self-funding candidates cashed in millions to their own races in recent cycles, and 2026 is on pace to continue that momentum. But the track record is uneven at best. Just look at David Trone; he spent over $60 million in the 2024 Maryland Senate primary and lost by 11 points. Money buys airtime. It doesn't always buy votes.

ON THE HORIZON

Upcoming Elections:


April 21:
Virginia Redistricting Amendment


May 5:
Indiana Primary
Ohio Primary


May 12:
Nebraska Primary
West Virginia Primary
North Carolina Runoff


May 16:
Louisiana Primary


May 19:
Alabama Primary
Georgia Primary
Idaho Primary
Kentucky Primary
Oregon Primary
Pennsylvania Primary


By Bob Salera • October 20, 2026
SNAPSHOT
By Sarah Williams • October 15, 2026
The Morning After: Why Post-Election Planning Starts Now With less than three weeks until Election Day, nearly all the attention is on who will win. For organizations with business before government, the better question is what they will do the morning after. November 3 will reset the cast of characters, shift the leverage, and open one of the most compressed legislative windows of the year. The organizations that come out ahead will be the ones that planned for every outcome before the votes were counted. A Five-Week Sprint The current continuing resolution funds the government through December 11, leaving a lame-duck Congress about five weeks to deal with FY27 spending, the NDAA, a possible third reconciliation package, and expiring programs from surface transportation to healthcare. Many of those decisions will be made by members who just won, just lost, or are about to hand over the gavel. And as Bob Salera noted in his recent look at polling error , today's polling leads are provisional, so the smart move is to plan for every scenario, not just the forecast. What to Do Now The next three weeks are the best time an organization will have to prepare. Once results are in, every company, association, and coalition will be chasing the same new offices with the same requests. Get in front of new members early. Identify the candidates in open seats and competitive races who will matter to your issues, and be ready to reach out the day after the election with information about what you mean to their district. Those who show up early become trusted resources. Those who show up in February with an ask become one more meeting request. Know the new decision makers. New offices hire chiefs of staff and legislative directors between November and January, and retirements will open committee chairs no matter who wins. Know who is coming, who is next in line, and where they stand on your issues. Shape the narrative before someone else does. New members form their views quickly, often from what they read and hear at home. Have your story ready for local press, op-ed pages, and the trade outlets new staff will be reading in their first weeks. Bring local voices . Map your footprint in every district and state that matters, from employees and facilities to customers and community partners. A constituent in the room carries more weight than any one-pager. Line up your allies. Coalition partners, local leaders, and third-party validators who can carry your message matter even more with lawmakers who do not know you yet. Lock in your lame-duck asks. If your priority could ride on a funding bill, the NDAA, or an extender package, it needs to be drafted, socialized, and backed by allies before Congress returns. Be ready on day one. Prepare statements for every outcome, a briefing package built for new offices, and digital content ready to deploy the moment results are in. Don't Forget the States Thirty-six governorships and most state legislative chambers are on the ballot. New governors start building transition teams within days, and many legislatures convene in January. Every capital where you do business needs the same plan: relationships with incoming leaders and a message built for them. The Bottom Line Election Day ends the campaign, not the work. The relationships and narratives that will decide your issues in 2027 are taking shape now. At AxAdvocacy, we pair federal and state government relations with integrated public affairs campaigns, so our clients are in the room and in the conversation on day one.
By Bob Salera • October 6, 2026
Polling Error Is the Wild Card Heading Into November With four weeks until Election Day, Democrats are enjoying some of the most favorable polling they have seen in years. The question for anyone planning around November's results is a simple one: are the polls right? Recent history says that is far from guaranteed. In each of the last three election cycles, polls have missed in the same direction, and that direction has been toward Democrats. Three cycles, one direction Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin tracks the average statistical bias in polls taken during the final three weeks of each election cycle. The pattern since 2019 is hard to miss: • 2019-2020: polls overstated Democrats by 4.7 points across all offices • 2021-2022: polls overstated Democrats by 0.8 points • 2023-2024: polls overstated Democrats by 2.9 points  Averaged together, that is a 2.8-point miss in Democrats' favor.
October 6, 2026
SNAPSHOT
September 22, 2026
SNAPSHOT
By Caleb Franz • September 10, 2026
The Post-Recess Congressional Outlook Congress returned from its five-week August recess and sent a bill to the President to fund the government through December 11, but the major fiscal and policy fights remain unresolved. That makes the CR a ceasefire, not a resolution — the fight over spending and policy is still ahead. The Clock The calendar is shrinking by the week. The House returned August 31, then canceled its remaining two full work weeks in September, leaving a single four-day session (September 14-17) before members leave for the campaign trail. The Senate has a bit more time, scheduled to stay in session through October 2. The September 30 fiscal-year deadline is no longer the immediate deadline because the CR extends funding through December 11. Neither chamber has the runway to finish the remaining major legislative agenda items before Election Day. The likely outcome is that decisions on government funding beyond December 11, the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act, and the fate of a third reconciliation package extend into the lame-duck session - decided by a Congress that may look different than the one sitting today. Appropriations & NDAA Appropriations and NDAA are traditional must-pass priorities. Reconciliation is optional. Appropriations remain the most immediate pressure point, and the December 11 deadline only buys time on the FY27 spending bills. All twelve have cleared the House Appropriations Committee, but only three have passed the full floor, and the Senate hasn't reported a single one out of committee. That disparity reflects the two chambers' unresolved fight over topline defense and non-defense spending levels. Absent a herculean effort by the leadership of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, passing any of the outstanding bills across both chambers by year's end is unlikely, and another stopgap will likely be necessary. After six decades of annual enactment, the odds are in favor of Congress ultimately producing an NDAA. The House passed its version in July by a narrow margin, authorizing roughly $250 billion more in defense spending than FY26 levels. The Senate's version is still pending, stalled since a failed July cloture vote, and even once it passes, a conference committee still has to reconcile the two chambers' different versions before anything reaches the President's desk. NDAA hasn't been signed into law before December in any of the last several cycles; last year's version wasn't signed until December 18, and this year is tracking the same way. With no official Senate passed product, the two chambers will begin informal conference discussions in earnest after the Congress officially breaks for the election season. Reconciliation 3.0 Reconciliation is the one item on this list Congress does not have to touch. Republicans already used the process once this year, passing a second reconciliation bill in June that provided roughly $70 billion in funding for ICE and CBP. A third package, built around Iran war funding, agricultural aid, and provisions tied to Republicans' election-law priorities, cleared the House in July, but the Senate has not advanced it. Majority Leader Thune has said he'd rather hold the framework in reserve as leverage for the funding fight than spend it on a standalone package before the election. Its prospects are likely to depend in significant part on how the funding negotiations develop as well as the election outcome. If one or both Chambers flip, look for Republicans to revisit reconciliation efforts as a last-ditch effort to provide funding to the Administration for key priorities prior to the new Congress. What the Election Changes The election will determine how much leverage each side has during the lame-duck period. With the election on November 3 and the CR expiring December 11, the lame-duck Congress would have roughly five weeks to resolve the next round of government funding. If Republicans retain both chambers, they can continue pursuing their legislative agenda, but the incentive to complete major priorities before the new Congress takes office would still depend on the size of their margins and the remaining legislative calendar. If Democrats win either chamber, the outgoing GOP majority faces greater pressure to resolve outstanding priorities before the new Congress takes office, when the balance of power could shift. That could create a final push to lock in NDAA authorization levels and take another run at reconciliation before new members take office in January. The Bottom Line The next sixty days matter more than the usual pre-election lull suggests. The major open questions: the FY27 spending bills, NDAA authorization levels, and whether Republicans pursue a third reconciliation bill, remain unresolved. Organizations with a stake in any of these three fights have a narrower window than usual to get specific asks attached before that happens, and that window closes well before Congress reconvenes in January.