Virginia Democrats have unveiled a new congressional redistricting plan that would create a map with 10 districts favoring Democrats and just one favoring Republicans by leveraging population centers in Northern Virginia and Richmond. This represents a dramatic reshaping of the delegation and a clear attempt to reduce Republican representation. The plan has drawn sharp GOP criticism as overly partisan and faces ongoing legal challenges. If Democrats prevail in the courts, voters would be set to decide in an April referendum whether to allow the map to move forward. Read More.
AxIndex, Edition 3
SNAPSHOT
Our Top 3:
1) Turnout, Not Territory, Dominates Early 2026 Signals: Recent special elections, most notably in Texas, are underscoring a shift in how early-cycle strength is being measured. Low-salience contests are increasingly decided by enthusiasm and base turnout, not persuasion, with Democrats pointing to overperformance as a sign of momentum and Republicans quietly flagging turnout drop-off and runoff fatigue as growing risks.
2) Redistricting Whack-a-Mole Continues in 2026: Redistricting is no longer a background legal issue but an active 2026 battleground. With the Supreme Court allowing California’s revised congressional map to proceed and new efforts unfolding in Virginia, New York, and Maryland, control of House lines is once again shaping the near-term political landscape.
3) Senate Races Begin to Nationalize Through Primaries and Fundraising: Early Senate races in Texas and Georgia are increasingly framed through national lenses, driven by intraparty competition, endorsement uncertainty, and early fundraising gaps. Prolonged Republican primaries are emerging as a potential vulnerability as Democrats work to consolidate earlier around general-election messaging.
National Sentiment Tracking
ECONOMIC SENTIMENT REMAINS A DRAG ONE YEAR INTO TRUMP’S SECOND TERM
A new Pew Research Center survey finds that Americans continue to hold broadly negative views of the economy one year into President Trump’s second term. Roughly seven in ten adults rate economic conditions as only fair or poor, with concerns driven primarily by the rising cost of everyday necessities like food, housing, and health care. While Republicans are significantly more likely than Democrats to view the economy positively, overall pessimism remains widespread, and expectations for the future are mixed. Notably, a majority of voters oppose major tariff increases, signaling skepticism toward trade policies that could further raise consumer prices.
HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS
PROGRESSIVE CANDIDATE WINS NJ-11 DEM PRIMARY
In New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District special Democratic primary, progressive activist Analilia Mejia has emerged victorious, with former Rep. Tom Malinowski conceding after a close contest. Mejia, backed by prominent progressives including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, prevailed in a crowded field to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill and will now face Republican Joe Hathaway in the April 16 special general election. Read More.
Polling At A Glance
Polling:
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 47.7 Dem - 42.5 GOP (D +5.2)
On this day in:
2022: 47.2 GOP - 43.6 Dem (R+3.6)
2018: 45.1 Dem - 38.4 GOP (D+6.7)
Retirements
Notable retirements from Congress are beginning to come out as the election year gets underway. The current total sits at 51 incumbent members (21 Democrats / 30 Republicans) of the House who have announced they are not seeking re-election.
For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House.
CONGRESSIONAL RETIREMENTS HIT HIGHEST LEVEL IN DECADE
A record number of U.S. lawmakers are choosing not to seek re-election or are stepping down early as the 2026 midterms approach. As of early February, at least 60 members of Congress, including 51 House members and nine senators, have announced they won’t run again, a level of turnover that outpaces prior cycles and marks the most retirements this century at this point in the calendar.
The wave of departures is reshaping the electoral landscape by creating more open, competitive seats. The trend is especially consequential for Republicans, given their narrow House majority, while Democratic exits point to generational turnover and the end of long tenures, collectively signaling internal pressures and raising the stakes in the fight for control of Congress. Read More.
GEORGIA GOP REP. LOUDERMILK TO RETIRE
Georgia Republican Rep. Barry Loudermilk announced he will not seek re-election in 2026, adding another House seat to the growing wave of retirements ahead of the midterms. A five-term member and Trump ally, Loudermilk’s exit opens Georgia’s 11th District, a solid GOP seat, to a competitive nomination and adds to the churn reshaping the House field. Read More.
NV-02 REP. AMODEI (R) TO RETIRE
Nevada Republican Rep. Mark Amodei announced he will not seek re-election in 2026, opening up the state’s 2nd Congressional District and adding to the number of Republicans leaving Congress. Amodei’s departure makes NV-02, a reliably Republican seat, an open contest, drawing interest from multiple GOP contenders while Democrats assess long-shot opportunities in the state's lone Republican district. Read More.
Redistricting
VIRGINIA DEMOCRATS SEEK TO MAKE GAINS WITH PROPOSED HOUSE MAP
SUPREME COURT GREENLIGHTS NEW CALIFORNIA MAP
The U.S. Supreme Court, in an unsigned order, allowed California’s revised congressional map to take effect, rejecting challenges from Republican voters who argued the plan diluted their influence. The ruling clears the way for Democrats to use the new map in 2026, a move expected to make several districts more competitive and potentially put long-held Republican seats in play. Read More.
SENATE HIGHLIGHTS
Retirements
So far, 9 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.
SUSAN COLLINS OFFICIALLY ENTERS 2026 SENATE RACE
Republican Sen. Susan Collins announced she is running for a sixth term in the U.S. Senate, launching what is expected to be one of the most closely watched and competitive Senate contests of 2026. Collins, a longtime centrist lawmaker in a state that leans Democratic in presidential elections, is framing her campaign around experience and bipartisan problem-solving, even as she faces criticism over immigration enforcement and mounting challenges from Democrats including Gov. Janet Mills and progressive candidate Graham Platner. Read More.
DEMOCRATS HAVE THE FUNDRAISING EDGE IN KEY SENATE RACESSUSAN COLLINS OFFICIALLY ENTERS 2026 SENATE RACE
New FEC filings show Democratic Senate candidates holding an early fundraising edge over Republicans in several marquee 2026 battleground contests, including Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and New Hampshire, as the fight for control of the chamber takes shape. In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff reported a substantial haul that dwarfs his GOP rivals, and Democratic contenders in open and competitive states are also pulling in larger sums, a dynamic that could bolster both defensive and offensive Senate strategies heading into the midterms. Read More.
Paxton, Crockett Ahead in Polling Heading into Primary Season
New polling in Texas underscores continued volatility in both parties’ U.S. Senate primaries. On the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton holds an early edge over Sen. John Cornyn, with no candidate on track to clear 50% and a runoff increasingly likely. Democrats face a similarly competitive contest between Reps. Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, setting up a nomination fight that could shape messaging, resources, and turnout dynamics well ahead of the general election. Read More.
Polling At A Glance
Recent Polls
The Alabama Poll (AL GOP Primary): Marshall 26, Moore 17, Hudson 8, Walker 4, Murphy 1
JL Partners (TX GOP Primary): Paxton 27, Cornyn 26, Hunt 26
University of Houston (TX GOP Primary): Paxton 38, Cornyn 31, Hunt 17
JL Partners (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Paxton 41, Cornyn 40
University of Houston (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Paxton 51, Cornyn 40
JL Partners (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Hunt 44, Paxton 34
University of Houston (TX Primary Runoff): Paxton 56, Hunt 33
JL Partners (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Hunt 44, Cornyn 33
University of Houston (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Cornyn 46, Hunt 39
University of Houston (TX Dem Primary): Crockett 47, Talarico 39, Hassan 2
University of Houston (TX General): Paxton 45, Crockett 43, Brown 4
University of Houston (TX General): Paxton 46, Talarico 44, Brown 3
University of Houston (TX General): Cornyn 45, Crockett 43, Brown 5
University of Houston (TX General): Cornyn 44, Talarico 43, Brown 5
University of Houston (TX General): Hunt 46, Crockett 43, Brown 3
University of Houston (TX General): Hunt 46, Talarico 42, Brown 3
Quantus (KY GOP Primary): Barr 28, Cameron 27, Morris 17
Emerson (KY GOP Primary): Barr 24, Cameron 21, Morris 14
Emerson (KY Dem Primary): Booker 30, McGrath 19, Stevenson 4, Forsythe 1
IN THE STATES
DEMOCRAT FLIPS GOP STATE SENATE SEAT IN TEXAS
In a major special election upset, Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss in Texas State Senate District 9, a reliably Republican seat in Tarrant County that President Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. Rehmet won the January 31 runoff by about 57%–43%, an outcome Democrats are calling a wake-up call and a signal of competitive energy in conservative territory ahead of November’s midterms.
Read More.
On SiriusXM POTUS, AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson unpacked the lessons from the Texas special runoff and explained what the upset means for Republicans navigating a high-stakes 2026 cycle.
EMERGING NARRATIVES
PROGRESSIVE CANDIDATE WINS NJ-11 DEM PRIMARY
In New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District special Democratic primary, progressive activist Analilia Mejia has emerged victorious, with former Rep. Tom Malinowski conceding after a close contest. Mejia, backed by prominent progressives including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, prevailed in a crowded field to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill and will now face Republican Joe Hathaway in the April 16 special general election. Read More.
ON THE HORIZON
Upcoming Elections:
March 3:
Arkansas, North Carolina, Texas
March 10:
Mississippi
March 17:
Illinois
March 31:
Arkansas Runoff
April 16:
NJ-11 Special General
Congratulations to Senior Vice President Jeff Billman on one year at AxAdvocacy! Below, he shares his perspective on the shift from Capitol Hill to a multi-client lobbying firm.
Special elections are special, simply put. In the Texas race, the jungle primary produced a Republican majority when two GOP candidates collectively won over half the vote. But that advantage didn’t carry through to the runoff, where an enthusiasm gap led Democrats to over-perform in the turnout game. The takeaway: in off-cycle elections, turnout dynamics can matter more than territory. Listen to AxAdvocacy Preside nt Ashlee Rich Stephenson break down what we learned from the Texas special runoff. Watch the interview:
Our Top 3: 1) Backlash Over Federal Immigration Enforcement Intensifies: National outrage has surged after two fatal shootings by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis, complicating the Trump administration’s immigration strategy and turning ICE enforcement into a central campaign issue. 2) More Redistricting Moves Continue to Pop: Republicans’ appeal of a court ruling throwing out New York City’s only GOP-held House district comes as Democrats simultaneously push mid-decade redistricting efforts in Maryland and pursue a ballot move in Virginia to reclaim map-drawing power. 3) High Profile Names Shake Up Senate Races: The 2026 map is drawing marquee names as Julia Letlow, Michele Tafoya, and Alexander Vindman launch Senate bids in their respective states, signaling both parties’ intent to nationalize key races early and reshaping the battleground well ahead of November. National Sentiment Tracking Even Before MN Shooting, Voters Overwhelmingly Disapprove of ICE
Our healthcare policy expert, Kelly McElhaney, breaks down how HHS oversight, FDA guidance, and national biotechnology strategy will reshape regulatory expectations and what innovators need to do now to stay ahead.
Our Top 3: 1) Redistricting Chaos Creeps Into 2026 Planning: Ongoing redistricting battles in Wisconsin and Florida are creating uncertainty for House candidates as filing deadlines approach. 2) Economic Anxiety Ends 2025 On A Low Note: While inflation headlines have softened, voter frustration with the state of the economy sat at -33 at the end of the year, its lowest since July 2024. 3) Notable Retirements Are Beginning To Pop: A growing number of senior lawmakers in Washington have begun announcing plans to step aside, signaling early turnover ahead of 2026. At the state level, Tim Walz announced he will not seek reelection, a decision that follows a period of heightened scrutiny and controversy in Minnesota and sets off an open-seat race in a closely watched state with an open Senate seat for the Democrats to defend. National Sentiment Tracking Voters Still Concerned About Costs Over Everything Else Compared with polling from last year, inflation and prices remain the top voter concern, though the share citing it as the single most important issue has softened modestly as inflation cools. Even with that dip, cost-related issues continue to crowd out all others: inflation (26%), healthcare (12%), and jobs and the economy (11%) together account for nearly half of voter concern. Immigration (10%) and civil rights (9%) remain on the list but are secondary, suggesting that voters are still filtering political debates through an affordability lens rather than ideological ones. Read More. What This Means For candidates and outside groups heading into 2026, economic framing is unavoidable. Even when talking about healthcare, immigration, or regulation, voters are looking for answers to how policies affect household costs, wages, and financial stability. Voter Groups Shift In Support For Trump A new Economist/YouGov poll covering January 2–5, 2026, finds mixed movement in President Donald Trump’s job approval: his standing improved among men and Hispanic voters compared with the prior week, while approval among Republicans and women declined. Despite those shifts within subgroups, Trump’s overall approval remains down nationally, reflecting broader voter dissatisfaction. Then & now context matters. Today, Trump’s RealClearPolitics average sits at 43.8% approve / 52.6% disapprove (-8.8). On the same point in 2018, his approval was lower, and opposition was far deeper: 39.4% approve / 56.0% disapprove (-16.6). While approval is still down, the narrower gap today points to a sturdier base of support than during his first term. Key takeaways: Men & Hispanic voters: Trump’s approval ticked up in the latest numbers. Republicans & women: Both groups showed declining support for his performance compared with recent polling. Overall national picture: This nuanced movement highlights how demographic coalitions are shifting subtly and could influence messaging strategies for both parties in 2026.
Big infrastructure decisions are coming fast in 2026. Our resident expert Jack Ruddy explains what’s next—from funding fights to major transportation legislation.
