Virginia Democrats have unveiled a new congressional redistricting plan that would create a map with 10 districts favoring Democrats and just one favoring Republicans by leveraging population centers in Northern Virginia and Richmond. This represents a dramatic reshaping of the delegation and a clear attempt to reduce Republican representation. The plan has drawn sharp GOP criticism as overly partisan and faces ongoing legal challenges. If Democrats prevail in the courts, voters would be set to decide in an April referendum whether to allow the map to move forward. Read More.
AxIndex, Edition 3
SNAPSHOT
Our Top 3:
1) Turnout, Not Territory, Dominates Early 2026 Signals: Recent special elections, most notably in Texas, are underscoring a shift in how early-cycle strength is being measured. Low-salience contests are increasingly decided by enthusiasm and base turnout, not persuasion, with Democrats pointing to overperformance as a sign of momentum and Republicans quietly flagging turnout drop-off and runoff fatigue as growing risks.
2) Redistricting Whack-a-Mole Continues in 2026: Redistricting is no longer a background legal issue but an active 2026 battleground. With the Supreme Court allowing California’s revised congressional map to proceed and new efforts unfolding in Virginia, New York, and Maryland, control of House lines is once again shaping the near-term political landscape.
3) Senate Races Begin to Nationalize Through Primaries and Fundraising: Early Senate races in Texas and Georgia are increasingly framed through national lenses, driven by intraparty competition, endorsement uncertainty, and early fundraising gaps. Prolonged Republican primaries are emerging as a potential vulnerability as Democrats work to consolidate earlier around general-election messaging.
National Sentiment Tracking
ECONOMIC SENTIMENT REMAINS A DRAG ONE YEAR INTO TRUMP’S SECOND TERM
A new Pew Research Center survey finds that Americans continue to hold broadly negative views of the economy one year into President Trump’s second term. Roughly seven in ten adults rate economic conditions as only fair or poor, with concerns driven primarily by the rising cost of everyday necessities like food, housing, and health care. While Republicans are significantly more likely than Democrats to view the economy positively, overall pessimism remains widespread, and expectations for the future are mixed. Notably, a majority of voters oppose major tariff increases, signaling skepticism toward trade policies that could further raise consumer prices.
HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS
PROGRESSIVE CANDIDATE WINS NJ-11 DEM PRIMARY
In New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District special Democratic primary, progressive activist Analilia Mejia has emerged victorious, with former Rep. Tom Malinowski conceding after a close contest. Mejia, backed by prominent progressives including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, prevailed in a crowded field to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill and will now face Republican Joe Hathaway in the April 16 special general election. Read More.
Polling At A Glance
Polling:
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 47.7 Dem - 42.5 GOP (D +5.2)
On this day in:
2022: 47.2 GOP - 43.6 Dem (R+3.6)
2018: 45.1 Dem - 38.4 GOP (D+6.7)
Retirements
Notable retirements from Congress are beginning to come out as the election year gets underway. The current total sits at 51 incumbent members (21 Democrats / 30 Republicans) of the House who have announced they are not seeking re-election.
For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House.
CONGRESSIONAL RETIREMENTS HIT HIGHEST LEVEL IN DECADE
A record number of U.S. lawmakers are choosing not to seek re-election or are stepping down early as the 2026 midterms approach. As of early February, at least 60 members of Congress, including 51 House members and nine senators, have announced they won’t run again, a level of turnover that outpaces prior cycles and marks the most retirements this century at this point in the calendar.
The wave of departures is reshaping the electoral landscape by creating more open, competitive seats. The trend is especially consequential for Republicans, given their narrow House majority, while Democratic exits point to generational turnover and the end of long tenures, collectively signaling internal pressures and raising the stakes in the fight for control of Congress. Read More.
GEORGIA GOP REP. LOUDERMILK TO RETIRE
Georgia Republican Rep. Barry Loudermilk announced he will not seek re-election in 2026, adding another House seat to the growing wave of retirements ahead of the midterms. A five-term member and Trump ally, Loudermilk’s exit opens Georgia’s 11th District, a solid GOP seat, to a competitive nomination and adds to the churn reshaping the House field. Read More.
NV-02 REP. AMODEI (R) TO RETIRE
Nevada Republican Rep. Mark Amodei announced he will not seek re-election in 2026, opening up the state’s 2nd Congressional District and adding to the number of Republicans leaving Congress. Amodei’s departure makes NV-02, a reliably Republican seat, an open contest, drawing interest from multiple GOP contenders while Democrats assess long-shot opportunities in the state's lone Republican district. Read More.
Redistricting
VIRGINIA DEMOCRATS SEEK TO MAKE GAINS WITH PROPOSED HOUSE MAP
SUPREME COURT GREENLIGHTS NEW CALIFORNIA MAP
The U.S. Supreme Court, in an unsigned order, allowed California’s revised congressional map to take effect, rejecting challenges from Republican voters who argued the plan diluted their influence. The ruling clears the way for Democrats to use the new map in 2026, a move expected to make several districts more competitive and potentially put long-held Republican seats in play. Read More.
SENATE HIGHLIGHTS
Retirements
So far, 9 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.
SUSAN COLLINS OFFICIALLY ENTERS 2026 SENATE RACE
Republican Sen. Susan Collins announced she is running for a sixth term in the U.S. Senate, launching what is expected to be one of the most closely watched and competitive Senate contests of 2026. Collins, a longtime centrist lawmaker in a state that leans Democratic in presidential elections, is framing her campaign around experience and bipartisan problem-solving, even as she faces criticism over immigration enforcement and mounting challenges from Democrats including Gov. Janet Mills and progressive candidate Graham Platner. Read More.
DEMOCRATS HAVE THE FUNDRAISING EDGE IN KEY SENATE RACESSUSAN COLLINS OFFICIALLY ENTERS 2026 SENATE RACE
New FEC filings show Democratic Senate candidates holding an early fundraising edge over Republicans in several marquee 2026 battleground contests, including Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and New Hampshire, as the fight for control of the chamber takes shape. In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff reported a substantial haul that dwarfs his GOP rivals, and Democratic contenders in open and competitive states are also pulling in larger sums, a dynamic that could bolster both defensive and offensive Senate strategies heading into the midterms. Read More.
Paxton, Crockett Ahead in Polling Heading into Primary Season
New polling in Texas underscores continued volatility in both parties’ U.S. Senate primaries. On the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton holds an early edge over Sen. John Cornyn, with no candidate on track to clear 50% and a runoff increasingly likely. Democrats face a similarly competitive contest between Reps. Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, setting up a nomination fight that could shape messaging, resources, and turnout dynamics well ahead of the general election. Read More.
Polling At A Glance
Recent Polls
The Alabama Poll (AL GOP Primary): Marshall 26, Moore 17, Hudson 8, Walker 4, Murphy 1
JL Partners (TX GOP Primary): Paxton 27, Cornyn 26, Hunt 26
University of Houston (TX GOP Primary): Paxton 38, Cornyn 31, Hunt 17
JL Partners (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Paxton 41, Cornyn 40
University of Houston (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Paxton 51, Cornyn 40
JL Partners (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Hunt 44, Paxton 34
University of Houston (TX Primary Runoff): Paxton 56, Hunt 33
JL Partners (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Hunt 44, Cornyn 33
University of Houston (TX GOP Primary Runoff): Cornyn 46, Hunt 39
University of Houston (TX Dem Primary): Crockett 47, Talarico 39, Hassan 2
University of Houston (TX General): Paxton 45, Crockett 43, Brown 4
University of Houston (TX General): Paxton 46, Talarico 44, Brown 3
University of Houston (TX General): Cornyn 45, Crockett 43, Brown 5
University of Houston (TX General): Cornyn 44, Talarico 43, Brown 5
University of Houston (TX General): Hunt 46, Crockett 43, Brown 3
University of Houston (TX General): Hunt 46, Talarico 42, Brown 3
Quantus (KY GOP Primary): Barr 28, Cameron 27, Morris 17
Emerson (KY GOP Primary): Barr 24, Cameron 21, Morris 14
Emerson (KY Dem Primary): Booker 30, McGrath 19, Stevenson 4, Forsythe 1
IN THE STATES
DEMOCRAT FLIPS GOP STATE SENATE SEAT IN TEXAS
In a major special election upset, Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss in Texas State Senate District 9, a reliably Republican seat in Tarrant County that President Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. Rehmet won the January 31 runoff by about 57%–43%, an outcome Democrats are calling a wake-up call and a signal of competitive energy in conservative territory ahead of November’s midterms.
Read More.
On SiriusXM POTUS, AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson unpacked the lessons from the Texas special runoff and explained what the upset means for Republicans navigating a high-stakes 2026 cycle.
EMERGING NARRATIVES
PROGRESSIVE CANDIDATE WINS NJ-11 DEM PRIMARY
In New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District special Democratic primary, progressive activist Analilia Mejia has emerged victorious, with former Rep. Tom Malinowski conceding after a close contest. Mejia, backed by prominent progressives including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, prevailed in a crowded field to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill and will now face Republican Joe Hathaway in the April 16 special general election. Read More.
ON THE HORIZON
Upcoming Elections:
March 3:
Arkansas, North Carolina, Texas
March 10:
Mississippi
March 17:
Illinois
March 31:
Arkansas Runoff
April 16:
NJ-11 Special General
President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined Steve Scully on SiriusXM POTUS to discuss the U.S. Senate landscape. Ashlee stated, "If I'm a Democratic operative, I'm hoping Haley Stevens pulls this out. Nominating a Democratic Socialist of America-backed candidate to run statewide in a true battleground would present real challenges for Democrats. If we start seeing Democratic Socialist of America candidates winning Senate nominations in states like Michigan, it signals a broader shift with implications that extend to the Electoral College, the presidency, and the future of free enterprise." And prior to the breaking news on Platner re-evaluating his campaign, they also covered Maine's Senate race, where Ashlee argued that Sen. Susan Collins remains in a strong position. Collins' long-standing reputation and the value Mainers place on character make the race far more challenging for Democrats than many expected, turning what was once viewed as a top pickup opportunity into a much more difficult path. Watch the full analysis of the 2026 U.S. Senate landscape here:
State of Play: Five Things We Are Tracking As Congress limps into the July 4th recess, it appears that the legislative agenda will remain in gridlock. The ongoing disagreements will ultimately define the remainder of the summer and fall calendar. SAVE America Act rebellion is freezing the House floor. A group of House conservatives have twice blocked procedural rules this week, demanding that leadership force action on the SAVE America Act. The faction has stalled many must-pass items and sent members home early for the second week in a row. Speaker Johnson needs near-unanimous GOP support to move anything with such a razor-thin majority. FY27 NDAA a victim of House Gridlock. The House Armed Services Committee has released a $1.15 trillion topline NDAA, with Chairman Rogers framing it around industrial base revitalization and getting to the administration's defense spending target. As of this week, the bill is caught in the SAVE America Act crossfire, with Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's push to attach the voter ID measure via amendment threatening to sink it in the Senate, where it needs Democratic votes to clear a filibuster. FY27 appropriations are inching forward. The House has passed two FY27 spending bills (MilCon-VA and Agriculture-FDA) and was set to take up the State Foreign Operations bill this week before the SAVE Act revolt punted it again. With the Senate in recess for two weeks, and the end of the fiscal year fast approaching, the path to a full-year deal versus another continuing resolution remains in question. Surface transportation reauthorization is racing against a September 30 deadline. With the IIJA's five-year authorization set to expire on September 30, the House T&I Committee advanced the bipartisan $580 billion BUILD America 250 Act (H.R. 8870) out of committee with a bipartisan 62-2 vote in May championed by Chairman Graves and Ranking Member Larsen. Floor time has not yet been announced, but committee leadership is hopeful it will be secured before the August recess. The Senate hasn't released its proposal yet, but early signals suggest strong continuity with the House version, with a streamlined return to the legislation’s original core functions. The urgency to move is driven by a very real funding problem: the Highway Trust Fund is projected to run dry by 2028, the House bill addresses this with a new EV and hybrid fees. Senate Appropriations markups keep getting delayed. Movement is expected once the Senate returns from its two-week recess. Senate Appropriations has postponed its full-committee markups of Agriculture-FDA, Commerce-Justice-Science, Legislative Branch, and MilCon-VA for the fourth time. Defense Subcommittee Chairman Mitch McConnell's hospitalization left Republicans short a vote. He is anticipated to return later this month.
More Than a Phone Call: The Real Work of Effective Advocacy Government relations is not just about knowing who to call. It is about identifying the right person, knowing why to call them, and how to frame the conversation when you do. Recently, a client who is a healthcare provider reached out for support. They had supported a licensing change that moved them into a new category, a shift that made sense as a way to better align oversight with the services being delivered. What nobody anticipated was that the change triggered simultaneous obligations under two separate, similar state statutes. Two divisions within the same agency were now required to conduct independent maltreatment investigations of the same event on sequential timelines, leaving staff on administrative leave for months and operations significantly disrupted — with most allegations ultimately unfounded. The provider had attempted to resolve the issues but was frustrated. They needed a strategy. Step One: Understand the Law A side-by-side analysis of both statutes mapped jurisdiction, investigation requirements, and timelines. It identified the precise point of overlap and, just as importantly, room within existing law to coordinate that had not yet been explored. Without that foundation, there is no credible position, no realistic solution, and no productive conversation with anyone who has authority to act. Step Two: Know Your Audience The framing had to acknowledge what both statutes were designed to protect while making clear the current process was producing a significant burden without additional protective value. Understanding the agency's own position and constraints was essential to developing a message they could act on rather than defend against. Step Three: Engage the Agency First The first call was not to a legislator. It was to the agency. Going to them first signals good faith and allows them to be part of the solution. A legislative fix takes a session. An administrative accommodation can be processed within weeks. The agency reviewed the analysis, agreed that the duplication did not serve the intent of either statute, and agreed to streamline the process within existing authority. Step Four: Build Toward a Long-Term Solution The streamlining was a meaningful win and not the finish line. The statutory ambiguity remains, and both sides recognized that a legislative fix is likely necessary to fully resolve the issue. The short-term work built the trust to get there together. Effective advocacy is not a single conversation. Done well, it does not just solve the problem at hand. It builds the foundation to resolve greater future issues. And the agencies and legislators who are part of that process are far more likely to become partners in solving the next problem too.
SNAPSHOT
SNAPSHOT
President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined Steve Scully on SiriusXM POTUS to discuss the latest political developments, including the Maine Senate race, the emerging field for the 2028 presidential election, and renewed scrutiny of President Biden's 2024 campaign. The conversation covered former Vice President Mike Pence's political future, the growing attention surrounding Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as potential Republican standard-bearers, and former First Lady Jill Biden's recent reflections on the 2024 election cycle. Listen to the full conversation here:
