AxIndex, Edition 2

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President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined Steve Scully on SiriusXM POTUS to discuss the latest political developments, including the Maine Senate race, the emerging field for the 2028 presidential election, and renewed scrutiny of President Biden's 2024 campaign. The conversation covered former Vice President Mike Pence's political future, the growing attention surrounding Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as potential Republican standard-bearers, and former First Lady Jill Biden's recent reflections on the 2024 election cycle.  Listen to the full conversation here:

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A Spring Congressional Update: What to Watch in the Months Ahead After a busy first four months of the year and with the remaining legislative calendar shrinking, it’s time to take a fresh look at the outlook for the three-month Congressional sprint to August. Appropriations: A Fresh Start — and Early Pressure In our January outlook , Congress was staring down a January 30th funding deadline. After one of the most turbulent funding cycles in recent memory — including a 43-day government shutdown last fall that became the longest in modern history — Congress managed to complete 11 of the 12 FY2026 appropriations bills. Congress recently released funding for the Department of Homeland Security – sans ICE and CBP – but only after swiftly approving a budget resolution to tee up a second reconciliation bill intended to provide multi-year funding for the immigration and border enforcement agencies. Now the clock is already ticking on FY2027 funding. The House is well underway, having reported out five Appropriations bills in the last two weeks of April. The House Appropriations Committee has laid out an ambitious markup schedule to complete its committee work by June. On the other side of the Hill, the Senate has held a flurry of hearings in April to examine the Administration’s budget request, with Administration officials making regular appearances before the Committee as the Senate charts its path for FY2027 funding bills. Whether Congress can complete some or any of these bills before the October 1 deadline, or whether the government once again stumbles into another continuing resolution or shutdown, remains the central fiscal question of the year. Whether it’s Vegas or Kalshi, the safe money is on a continuing resolution at least through the end of the year in order to avoid a messy spending fight a month before the midterm elections. Defense: Boosting the Budget, Expanding Priorities Boosting defense spending remains a top Administration priority, which has taken on increased importance as the military engagement with Iran has dragged on and strained military stockpiles. The Administration's new budget request proposes boosting defense spending to roughly $1.5 trillion — a sharp increase that Congress will have to grapple with as it approaches the NDAA and Appropriations bills this year. Traditionally, Congressional Appropriators tee up the defense funding bill early in the process, but in the House, it is currently scheduled to be the last bill to move through Committee, reflecting uncertainty over how to tackle the Administration’s request. A third reconciliation or a separate bipartisan supplemental funding bill are also options but face significant headwinds in the near term. The FY2027 NDAA is on the (short) list of bills Congress should get done this year with a June 4th mark-up scheduled in the House. The question is whether it becomes a lame duck Christmas tree. Transportation: A Must-Pass Deadline Looms Aside from the annual defense and appropriations work, the biggest legislative item on Congress's plate is the surface transportation reauthorization. The current authorization expires on September 30, 2026. Congress must either pass a new multi-year highway bill or risk leaving states without the long-term funding certainty they need to execute major infrastructure projects. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has been vocal about his "America is Building Again" agenda, pushing to streamline permitting and give states more control over environmental reviews. On the Hill, all eyes are on House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Sam Graves and Ranking Member Rick Larsen as speculation over a markup date and an impending deal continues to dominate conversations in transportation circles. Optimists (me included) believe that the Graves-Larsen dynamic duo will strike a deal that will bring along a bipartisan coalition and reinvigorate business and labor stakeholders, and that a bill is possible this year. The theory goes that momentum from the House could spur action in the Senate, yet every week that passes makes it more difficult.  Additionally, water infrastructure, aviation safety and additional funding for air traffic control are on the agenda, and Congress is likely to act on these issues before the year concludes. The Bottom Line Congress enters the second half of the fiscal year with a full agenda and real deadlines but as the saying goes, the outlook is as clear as mud. A second and possibly third reconciliation bill shows that Republicans are looking to create additional pathways to advance their remaining priorities. A possible surface transportation bill, defense authorization, and end of year funding will all be big targets as the ‘last trains to leave the station’ after the midterms.

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