AxIndex, Edition 2
Our Top 3:
1) Backlash Over Federal Immigration Enforcement Intensifies: National outrage has surged after two fatal shootings by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis, complicating the Trump administration’s immigration strategy and turning ICE enforcement into a central campaign issue.
2) More Redistricting Moves Continue to Pop: Republicans’ appeal of a court ruling throwing out New York City’s only GOP-held House district comes as Democrats simultaneously push mid-decade redistricting efforts in Maryland and pursue a ballot move in Virginia to reclaim map-drawing power.
3) High Profile Names Shake Up Senate Races: The 2026 map is drawing marquee names as Julia Letlow, Michele Tafoya, and Alexander Vindman launch Senate bids in their respective states, signaling both parties’ intent to nationalize key races early and reshaping the battleground well ahead of November.
National Sentiment Tracking
Even Before MN Shooting, Voters Overwhelmingly Disapprove of ICE
A new New York Times / Siena University poll shows deep public unease with how the Trump administration is handling immigration enforcement: while about half of voters approve of President Trump’s deportation policies and his handling of the U.S.–Mexico border, a substantial majority disapprove of Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s job performance and say ICE’s tactics have “gone too far,” with 63% disapproving of the agency’s work and 61% saying its approach is excessive, including many independents and some Republicans, reflecting widespread concern over interior raids and recent fatal encounters with federal agents.
House Highlights
Polling At A Glance
Polling
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 45.7 Dem - 41.2 GOP (D +4.5)
On this day in:
2022: 47.1 GOP - 43.0 Dem (R+4.1)
2018: 46.7 Dem - 38.8 GOP (D+7.9)
Cook Ratings
CA-13 Toss Up to Lean D
CA-25 Likely D to Solid D
CA-47 Likely D to Solid D
CO-05 Solid R to Likely R
CT-05 Likely D to Solid D
FL-07 Solid R to Likely R
IA-03 Lean R to Toss Up
IL-17 Likely D to Solid D
MI-03 Likely D to Solid D
NM-02 Toss Up to Lean D
NY-04 Toss Up to Lean D
NY-17 Lean R to Toss Up
NY-18 Likely D to Solid D
NY-22 Likely D to Solid D
OH-09 Lean R to Toss Up
PA-17 Likely D to Solid D
TN-05 Solid R to Likely R
TX-34 Lean R to Toss Up
Retirements
Notable retirements from Congress are beginning to come out as the election year gets underway. The current total sits at 49 incumbent members (21 Democrats / 28 Republicans) of the House who have announced they are not seeking re-election.
For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House.
Florida Republican Vern Buchanan to retire from Congress
Vern Buchanan’s decision not to seek reelection adds to a growing list of Florida Republican departures. Buchanan, the No. 2 Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, is leaving behind a district that backed Trump by more than 15 points in 2024, making the GOP primary the decisive contest and the eventual Republican nominee the clear favorite in November.
Read More.
Redistricting
GOP Appeals Ruling Tossing NYC’s Only Republican House Seat
Republicans have appealed to New York’s highest court after a judge invalidated the boundaries of the state’s only Republican-held congressional district, Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ Staten Island–Brooklyn seat, finding that the current map dilutes Black and Hispanic voters’ power and ordering the state’s independent redistricting panel to redraw lines by Feb. 6; the legal battle highlights broader national fights over gerrymandering and control of the U.S. House as both parties jockey for advantage ahead of the 2026 elections. Read More.
Redistricting heats up in Maryland and Virginia
In Maryland, Democratic Gov. Wes Moore’s Redistricting Advisory Commission has advanced a proposed mid-decade redraw of the state’s congressional map, including changes aimed at reshaping the 1st District to be more favorable for Democrats, as state leaders consider how hard to push back against Republican map gains elsewhere. In Virginia, Democratic lawmakers have moved a constitutional amendment to the April 2026 ballot that would let the legislature redraw U.S. House districts mid-decade, a bid to counter recent GOP-friendly maps and potentially net more Democratic seats. Both states’ efforts reflect strategic moves in the broader fight over control of the U.S. House ahead of the 2026 midterms. Read More.
Senate Highlights
Retirements
So far, 9 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.
Julia Letlow Enters Louisiana Senate Race
Rep. Julia Letlow has entered the Louisiana Republican primary for U.S. Senate, challenging incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy after receiving a Trump endorsement encouraging her to run. Letlow, who represents Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District, framed her candidacy as a call for a more consistent conservative voice and leaned heavily into Trump’s backing as she launched her campaign.
Cassidy, a two-term senator, remains supported by Senate GOP leadership but continues to face backlash from the party’s right flank over his vote to convict Trump during the second impeachment trial. With Louisiana solidly Republican, the May GOP primary is expected to be the decisive contest, and Letlow’s entry makes the race one of the most closely watched intraparty battles of the 2026 cycle. Read More.
Former NFL Sideline Star Enters Minnesota Senate Race
Former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya has entered the Republican primary for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, giving national GOP leaders a high-profile recruit in a state Democrats have long dominated but where Republicans see a rare pickup opportunity; her candidacy — backed by key GOP figures — intensifies a crowded primary and signals the party’s intent to seriously contest a race that could be critical to the fight for Senate control in 2026. Read More.
Former impeachment witness Alex Vindman Joins FL Senate Dem Primary
Retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, best known for testifying against President Trump during the 2019 Ukraine impeachment, has announced his Democratic bid for the U.S. Senate in Florida’s 2026 special election, setting up a high-profile challenge to Republican Sen. Ashley Moody as Democrats eye a foothold in a state that has trended GOP in recent cycles. Read More.
Polling at a glance
Recent Polls
UNH (NH General): Pappas (D) 50, Sununu (R) 45
UNH (NH General): Pappas (D) 52, Brown (R) 42
UNH (NH GOP Primary): Sununu 48, Brown 25
UNH (NH Dem Primary): Pappas 65, Manzur 11, Sullivan 2
Remington (AL GOP Primary): Marshall 26, Moore 13, Hudson 10, Walker 2, Murphy 1
Carolina Forward/Change Res. (NC General): Cooper 47, Whatley 42
TIPP (NC General): Cooper 48, Whatley 24
In the States
More State Legislative Chambers Seen as Competitive in 2026 Midterms
A new Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysis finds 15 state legislative chambers across the country are competitive heading into the 2026 midterms, more than at a similar point in the 2022 or 2024 cycles, with Republicans defending more chambers than Democrats and nine rated as toss-ups, highlighting an unusually dynamic battlefield at the state level where control of legislatures could shift and even break GOP supermajorities in key states this fall. Read More.
Emerging Narratives
Enforcement Reshapes the 2026 Immigration Narrative
The Minneapolis shooting involving federal immigration agents has prompted a noticeable recalibration in the immigration debate, with the White House dispatching senior adviser Tom Homan and signaling a more measured approach to enforcement messaging amid heightened public scrutiny, while the administration continues to defend its broader border strategy. Recent events have shifted attention toward how immigration policies are carried out, giving Democrats an opportunity to emphasize oversight and restraint, while Republicans work to refine how they talk about enforcement as the 2026 campaign environment takes shape around public confidence and trust. Read more.
On the Horizon
Upcoming Elections:
TX-18 Runoff: January 31 (Early Voting begins January 21)
NJ-11 Primary: February 5
NJ-11 General: April 16
2026 Midterms: November 3
