AxIndex, Edition 2

Our Top 3:

1) Backlash Over Federal Immigration Enforcement Intensifies: National outrage has surged after two fatal shootings by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis, complicating the Trump administration’s immigration strategy and turning ICE enforcement into a central campaign issue.


2) More Redistricting Moves Continue to Pop: Republicans’ appeal of a court ruling throwing out New York City’s only GOP-held House district comes as Democrats simultaneously push mid-decade redistricting efforts in Maryland and pursue a ballot move in Virginia to reclaim map-drawing power.


3) High Profile Names Shake Up Senate Races: The 2026 map is drawing marquee names as Julia Letlow, Michele Tafoya, and Alexander Vindman launch Senate bids in their respective states, signaling both parties’ intent to nationalize key races early and reshaping the battleground well ahead of November.


National Sentiment Tracking


Even Before MN Shooting, Voters Overwhelmingly Disapprove of ICE

A new New York Times / Siena University poll shows deep public unease with how the Trump administration is handling immigration enforcement: while about half of voters approve of President Trump’s deportation policies and his handling of the U.S.–Mexico border, a substantial majority disapprove of Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s job performance and say ICE’s tactics have “gone too far,” with 63% disapproving of the agency’s work and 61% saying its approach is excessive, including many independents and some Republicans, reflecting widespread concern over interior raids and recent fatal encounters with federal agents.

House Highlights


Polling At A Glance

Polling
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 45.7 Dem - 41.2 GOP (D +4.5)
On this day in:
2022: 47.1 GOP - 43.0 Dem (R+4.1)
2018: 46.7 Dem - 38.8 GOP (D+7.9)

Cook Ratings
CA-13 Toss Up to Lean D
CA-25 Likely D to Solid D
CA-47 Likely D to Solid D
CO-05 Solid R to Likely R
CT-05 Likely D to Solid D
FL-07 Solid R to Likely R
IA-03 Lean R to Toss Up
IL-17 Likely D to Solid D
MI-03 Likely D to Solid D
NM-02 Toss Up to Lean D 
NY-04 Toss Up to Lean D
NY-17 Lean R to Toss Up
NY-18 Likely D to Solid D
NY-22 Likely D to Solid D
OH-09 Lean R to Toss Up
PA-17 Likely D to Solid D
TN-05 Solid R to Likely R
TX-34 Lean R to Toss Up


Retirements


Notable retirements from Congress are beginning to come out as the election year gets underway. The current total sits at 49 incumbent members (21 Democrats / 28 Republicans) of the House who have announced they are not seeking re-election. 


For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House. 


Florida Republican Vern Buchanan to retire from Congress

Vern Buchanan’s decision not to seek reelection adds to a growing list of Florida Republican departures. Buchanan, the No. 2 Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, is leaving behind a district that backed Trump by more than 15 points in 2024, making the GOP primary the decisive contest and the eventual Republican nominee the clear favorite in November. Read More.


Redistricting


GOP Appeals Ruling Tossing NYC’s Only Republican House Seat

Republicans have appealed to New York’s highest court after a judge invalidated the boundaries of the state’s only Republican-held congressional district, Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ Staten Island–Brooklyn seat, finding that the current map dilutes Black and Hispanic voters’ power and ordering the state’s independent redistricting panel to redraw lines by Feb. 6; the legal battle highlights broader national fights over gerrymandering and control of the U.S. House as both parties jockey for advantage ahead of the 2026 elections. Read More.


Redistricting heats up in Maryland and Virginia

In Maryland, Democratic Gov. Wes Moore’s Redistricting Advisory Commission has advanced a proposed mid-decade redraw of the state’s congressional map, including changes aimed at reshaping the 1st District to be more favorable for Democrats, as state leaders consider how hard to push back against Republican map gains elsewhere. In Virginia, Democratic lawmakers have moved a constitutional amendment to the April 2026 ballot that would let the legislature redraw U.S. House districts mid-decade, a bid to counter recent GOP-friendly maps and potentially net more Democratic seats. Both states’ efforts reflect strategic moves in the broader fight over control of the U.S. House ahead of the 2026 midterms. Read More.


Senate Highlights


Retirements

So far, 9 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress. 


Julia Letlow Enters Louisiana Senate Race

Rep. Julia Letlow has entered the Louisiana Republican primary for U.S. Senate, challenging incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy after receiving a Trump endorsement encouraging her to run. Letlow, who represents Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District, framed her candidacy as a call for a more consistent conservative voice and leaned heavily into Trump’s backing as she launched her campaign.


Cassidy, a two-term senator, remains supported by Senate GOP leadership but continues to face backlash from the party’s right flank over his vote to convict Trump during the second impeachment trial. With Louisiana solidly Republican, the May GOP primary is expected to be the decisive contest, and Letlow’s entry makes the race one of the most closely watched intraparty battles of the 2026 cycle. Read More. 


Former NFL Sideline Star Enters Minnesota Senate Race

Former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya has entered the Republican primary for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, giving national GOP leaders a high-profile recruit in a state Democrats have long dominated but where Republicans see a rare pickup opportunity; her candidacy — backed by key GOP figures — intensifies a crowded primary and signals the party’s intent to seriously contest a race that could be critical to the fight for Senate control in 2026. Read More.


Former impeachment witness Alex Vindman Joins FL Senate Dem Primary

Retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, best known for testifying against President Trump during the 2019 Ukraine impeachment, has announced his Democratic bid for the U.S. Senate in Florida’s 2026 special election, setting up a high-profile challenge to Republican Sen. Ashley Moody as Democrats eye a foothold in a state that has trended GOP in recent cycles. Read More.


Polling at a glance

Recent Polls
UNH (NH General): Pappas (D) 50, Sununu (R) 45
UNH (NH General): Pappas (D) 52, Brown (R) 42
UNH (NH GOP Primary): Sununu 48, Brown 25
UNH (NH Dem Primary): Pappas 65, Manzur 11, Sullivan 2
Remington (AL GOP Primary): Marshall 26, Moore 13, Hudson 10, Walker 2, Murphy 1
Carolina Forward/Change Res. (NC General): Cooper 47, Whatley 42
TIPP (NC General): Cooper 48, Whatley 24

In the States



More State Legislative Chambers Seen as Competitive in 2026 Midterms

A new Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysis finds 15 state legislative chambers across the country are competitive heading into the 2026 midterms, more than at a similar point in the 2022 or 2024 cycles, with Republicans defending more chambers than Democrats and nine rated as toss-ups, highlighting an unusually dynamic battlefield at the state level where control of legislatures could shift and even break GOP supermajorities in key states this fall. Read More.


Emerging Narratives


Enforcement Reshapes the 2026 Immigration Narrative


The Minneapolis shooting involving federal immigration agents has prompted a noticeable recalibration in the immigration debate, with the White House dispatching senior adviser Tom Homan and signaling a more measured approach to enforcement messaging amid heightened public scrutiny, while the administration continues to defend its broader border strategy. Recent events have shifted attention toward how immigration policies are carried out, giving Democrats an opportunity to emphasize oversight and restraint, while Republicans work to refine how they talk about enforcement as the 2026 campaign environment takes shape around public confidence and trust. Read more.


On the Horizon


Upcoming Elections:

TX-18 Runoff: January 31 (Early Voting begins January 21)

NJ-11 Primary: February 5

NJ-11 General: April 16

2026 Midterms: November 3

What’s ahead for Biotech, Biopharma, and MedTech in 2026?

By Lauren Splett • January 21, 2026
Our healthcare policy expert, Kelly McElhaney, breaks down how HHS oversight, FDA guidance, and national biotechnology strategy will reshape regulatory expectations and what innovators need to do now to stay ahead.

AxIndex, Edition 1

By Bob Salera • January 16, 2026
Our Top 3: 1) Redistricting Chaos Creeps Into 2026 Planning: Ongoing redistricting battles in Wisconsin and Florida are creating uncertainty for House candidates as filing deadlines approach. 2) Economic Anxiety Ends 2025 On A Low Note: While inflation headlines have softened, voter frustration with the state of the economy sat at -33 at the end of the year, its lowest since July 2024. 3) Notable Retirements Are Beginning To Pop: A growing number of senior lawmakers in Washington have begun announcing plans to step aside, signaling early turnover ahead of 2026. At the state level, Tim Walz announced he will not seek reelection, a decision that follows a period of heightened scrutiny and controversy in Minnesota and sets off an open-seat race in a closely watched state with an open Senate seat for the Democrats to defend. National Sentiment Tracking Voters Still Concerned About Costs Over Everything Else Compared with polling from last year, inflation and prices remain the top voter concern, though the share citing it as the single most important issue has softened modestly as inflation cools. Even with that dip, cost-related issues continue to crowd out all others: inflation (26%), healthcare (12%), and jobs and the economy (11%) together account for nearly half of voter concern. Immigration (10%) and civil rights (9%) remain on the list but are secondary, suggesting that voters are still filtering political debates through an affordability lens rather than ideological ones. Read More. What This Means For candidates and outside groups heading into 2026, economic framing is unavoidable. Even when talking about healthcare, immigration, or regulation, voters are looking for answers to how policies affect household costs, wages, and financial stability. Voter Groups Shift In Support For Trump A new Economist/YouGov poll covering January 2–5, 2026, finds mixed movement in President Donald Trump’s job approval: his standing improved among men and Hispanic voters compared with the prior week, while approval among Republicans and women declined. Despite those shifts within subgroups, Trump’s overall approval remains down nationally, reflecting broader voter dissatisfaction. Then & now context matters. Today, Trump’s RealClearPolitics average sits at 43.8% approve / 52.6% disapprove (-8.8). On the same point in 2018, his approval was lower, and opposition was far deeper: 39.4% approve / 56.0% disapprove (-16.6). While approval is still down, the narrower gap today points to a sturdier base of support than during his first term. Key takeaways: Men & Hispanic voters: Trump’s approval ticked up in the latest numbers. Republicans & women: Both groups showed declining support for his performance compared with recent polling. Overall national picture: This nuanced movement highlights how demographic coalitions are shifting subtly and could influence messaging strategies for both parties in 2026. 

New Years Insight: An Outlook for Infrastructure

By Lauren Splett • January 14, 2026
Big infrastructure decisions are coming fast in 2026. Our resident expert Jack Ruddy explains what’s next—from funding fights to major transportation legislation.

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

By Lauren Splett • January 5, 2026
President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joins SiriusXM POTUS to break down the early outlook for the 2026 midterm elections and the battle for control of Congress. "The words of last year and probably still again this year, Steve, are going to be mid-decade redistricting. I think Republicans are going to end up netting out maybe three or four seats overall when it's all said and done." Watch the interview:

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

By Lauren Splett • December 18, 2025
President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS this morning to discuss President Trump's speech, the Affordable Care Act, and Republican strategy heading into the midterms. "The path to a strong midterm showing runs through President Trump’s base, and that’s exactly who this speech was designed to activate.” Watch the interview:

Mid-Decade Redistricting Battles Give GOP a Net Gain of 1-5 Seats Ahead of 2026

By Lauren Splett • December 16, 2025
Here is the latest redistricting update based on recent events and projections for the new year, not taking into consideration potential dynamic shifts, such as the outcome in the Voting Rights Act cases that may impact redistricting in several other states. Virginia Democrats have taken the first step toward a constitutional amendment that will allow them to overturn the state's non-partisan redistricting commission. In order to do so, the legislature will need to pass the amendment again in the new year and then voters will have their say via referendum in the Spring or Summer. In Florida, Governor DeSantis confirmed that a redistricting effort would take place in the new year. The Florida constitution bans partisan redistricting, so any new map would be subject to challenges, but the state Supreme Court has previously been deferential to the legislature in redistricting matters. Governor JB Pritzker in Illinois has expressed an openness to redistricting, as requested by national Democrats including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, but to date no concrete steps have been taken. If Illinois elects to redraw its map, it would require moving the 2026 primary to later in the year as filing deadlines have already passed.

Bobby Babcock Named to The Hill's Top Lobbyist List 2025

By Lauren Splett • December 11, 2025
Congratulations to AxAdvocacy Principal Bobby Babcock on being named one of The Hill’s Top Lobbyists for 2025! Bobby’s exceptional leadership, strategic insight, and results-driven advocacy on behalf of a diverse portfolio of clients make this recognition well deserved. We’re proud to celebrate his impact and continued contributions to our clients and the industry. The Hill Top Lobbyist List: https://thehill.com/homenews/5632709-top-lobbyists-2025/

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

By Lauren Splett • December 2, 2025
All eyes are on Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District today as voters brave the elements and holiday slump to head to the polls in the special election to replace Fmr. Rep. Mark Green. AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS to unpack the turnout warning signs and what Republicans eyeing 2026 should pay attention to from today’s results. Watch the interview:

What Veterans Day Means to Me: Reflections on Service, Leadership, and Gratitude

By Lauren Splett • November 17, 2025
Every year, as our country pauses to reflect on Veterans Day, I think about the history and meaning behind this solemn day. Originally established as Armistice Day to mark the end of World War I on November 11, 1918, it later evolved into Veterans Day, a day we honor American servicemembers of every generation who have sworn to defend our country. For me, this day means a great deal. As an Army Veteran who served as an Infantry Officer in Afghanistan and Iraq, I often receive a "Thank you for your service." I genuinely appreciate the sentiment, yet I hesitate in how to respond. It was an honor to serve, and I will be forever grateful to have worn the uniform. I am grateful that my years in uniform shaped the person I am today. I learned valuable lessons in leadership and followership; how to build, inspire, and support teams; and the importance of values such as duty, integrity, respect, and selfless service. Those experiences, responsibilities, and perspectives have guided me throughout my civilian career and in my personal life. Most importantly, I am forever grateful for the lifelong friendships forged while serving, bonds strengthened through shared mission, values, hardship, and, oftentimes, humor. It is also important to note that the sacrifices were not solely with the veteran. To the spouses, children, parents, and loved ones who stood behind us, carried the weight at home, and supported their service members through deployments, moves, uncertainty, and long separations, you also served. Our service would not have been possible without your strength and sacrifice. To all who have served, and to the families who served alongside them, a big thank you! Today, we honor your commitment, your sacrifice, and your enduring contribution to our great nation.  Happy Veterans Day!

Mid-Decade Redistricting Battles Give GOP a Net Gain of 2-7 Seats Ahead of 2026

By Lauren Splett • November 17, 2025