AxIndex, Edition 1

Our Top 3:

1) Redistricting Chaos Creeps Into 2026 Planning: Ongoing redistricting battles in Wisconsin and Florida are creating uncertainty for House candidates as filing deadlines approach.


2) Economic Anxiety Ends 2025 On A Low Note: While inflation headlines have softened, voter frustration with the state of the economy sat at -33 at the end of the year, its lowest since July 2024.


3) Notable Retirements Are Beginning To Pop: A growing number of senior lawmakers in Washington have begun announcing plans to step aside, signaling early turnover ahead of 2026. At the state level, Tim Walz announced he will not seek reelection, a decision that follows a period of heightened scrutiny and controversy in Minnesota and sets off an open-seat race in a closely watched state with an open Senate seat for the Democrats to defend.


National Sentiment Tracking


Voters Still Concerned About Costs Over Everything Else

Compared with polling from last year, inflation and prices remain the top voter concern, though the share citing it as the single most important issue has softened modestly as inflation cools. Even with that dip, cost-related issues continue to crowd out all others: inflation (26%), healthcare (12%), and jobs and the economy (11%) together account for nearly half of voter concern. Immigration (10%) and civil rights (9%) remain on the list but are secondary, suggesting that voters are still filtering political debates through an affordability lens rather than ideological ones. Read More.


What This Means
For candidates and outside groups heading into 2026, economic framing is unavoidable. Even when talking about healthcare, immigration, or regulation, voters are looking for answers to how policies affect household costs, wages, and financial stability.


Voter Groups Shift In Support For Trump

A new Economist/YouGov poll covering January 2–5, 2026, finds mixed movement in President Donald Trump’s job approval: his standing improved among men and Hispanic voters compared with the prior week, while approval among Republicans and women declined. Despite those shifts within subgroups, Trump’s overall approval remains down nationally, reflecting broader voter dissatisfaction.


Then & now context matters. Today, Trump’s RealClearPolitics average sits at 43.8% approve / 52.6% disapprove (-8.8). On the same point in 2018, his approval was lower, and opposition was far deeper: 39.4% approve / 56.0% disapprove (-16.6). While approval is still down, the narrower gap today points to a sturdier base of support than during his first term.


Key takeaways:

  • Men & Hispanic voters: Trump’s approval ticked up in the latest numbers.
  • Republicans & women: Both groups showed declining support for his performance compared with recent polling.


Overall national picture: This nuanced movement highlights how demographic coalitions are shifting subtly and could influence messaging strategies for both parties in 2026.

Record Share of Americans Now Identify as Independents


A new Gallup poll finds that 45% of U.S. adults now identify as political independents, the highest level on record and above previous peaks of 43% in 2014, 2023, and 2024. Meanwhile, identification with the two major parties is evenly split, 27% Democrat and 27% Republican, meaning the independent bloc now dwarfs both party cores. Younger generations, especially Gen Z, are driving much of this growth in independent identity.


House Highlights


GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa Dies at 65

Representative Douglas LaMalfa, who diligently served California's 1st District for 13 years, passed away last week. LaMalfa, a fourth-generation rice farmer, was a champion for agriculture and wildfire prevention during his time in Congress. 


With his passing, the Republicans' majority in the House shrank even further. The current split stands at 218-213. California will need to call a special election to replace LaMalfa, which could come as late as June. Read More.


Polling At A Glance

Polling
RCP Average Generic Ballot: Dem 46.2 – GOP 42.2 (D+4.0)
On this day in:
2022: GOP 42.8 – Dem 41.8 (R+1.0)
2018: Dem 48.3 – GOP 37.1 (D+11.2)

Cook Ratings
Changes:
WA-08: Likely D to Solid D


Retirements


Notable retirements from Congress are beginning to come out as the election year gets underway. The current total sits at 47 incumbent members (21 Democrats / 26 Republicans) of the House who have announced they are not seeking re-election. 


For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House. 


Rep. Neal Dunn Announces Retirement

Rep. Neal Dunn announced he will not seek re-election to the U.S. House in 2026. Dunn served five terms representing Florida’s 2nd Congressional District. This decision creates an open seat in Florida’s 2nd District, which is rated an R+8. Read More.


Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) Announces Retirement

Rep. Hoyer, the longest-serving Democrat currently in the U.S. House, confirmed he will retire at the end of his term. He has represented Maryland's 5th District in the House since 1981 and served for decades in Democratic leadership roles. Read More.


Redistricting



AxAdvocacy has been tracking all the latest shifts in redistricting. Above is the latest redistricting update based on recent events and projections for the new year, not taking into consideration potential dynamic shifts, such as the outcome in the Voting Rights Act cases. 


Florida to hold special redistricting session ahead of 2026 midterms

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has announced a special legislative session in late April 2026 for the state legislature to redraw the state’s congressional districts, a rare mid-decade redistricting effort aimed at reflecting population changes and potentially benefiting Republicans ahead of the November elections. Republicans could gain up to five seats under a new map. Read More.


Wisconsin redistricting fight may stretch past 2026 midterms

Two lawsuits challenging Wisconsin’s current congressional maps, which now favor Republican candidates, are moving through the courts, but recent hearings suggest they likely won't be resolved in time to change the districts for the November 2026 elections. One case’s attorneys argue new maps could be in place before next year’s vote, but judges signaled that a more extended timeline, potentially into 2027, is more realistic. That means current boundaries will probably remain for the upcoming midterms unless the court accelerates its schedule. Read More.


Senate Highlights


Retirements

So far, 9 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress. 


Mary Peltola Enters Alaska Senate Race, Boosting Democratic Hopes

Former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola officially announced her campaign for the 2026 U.S. Senate seat in Alaska, challenging two-term Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. Peltola, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, is pitching a populist platform centered on lowering costs and putting Alaska’s interests first. Her entry provides Democrats with one of their strongest recruits in a deeply Republican state, where Trump won by double digits in 2024, and elevates Alaska from a long shot to a plausibly competitive Senate contest in the fight for control of the chamber. Campaigns will first meet in a top-four ranked-choice primary in August, with the general election in November. Read More. 


Walz Exit Could leave two open seats in MN

Gov. Tim Walz’s decision not to seek reelection is rippling across Minnesota politics, compounding instability in a state already facing an open U.S. Senate seat after Tina Smith announced her retirement. The shake-up has intensified speculation that Amy Klobuchar could enter the governor’s race, a move that would further scramble the Democratic field and force a rapid recalibration in both statewide contests. While Minnesota remains blue-leaning, overlapping open races, crowded primaries, and late-breaking candidate decisions are raising the risk of a more chaotic and competitive cycle than either party initially anticipated. Read More.


Polling at a glance

Recent Polls
Emerson: IL Dem Primary: Krishnamoorthi 31, Stratton 10, Kelly 8, Ryan 2, Maxwell 1, Botsford 1, Dean 1
Emerson: IL GOP Primary: Tracy 6, Tillman 3, Evans 3, Long 2, Capparelli 2, Chlebek 1

Cook Ratings
Changes:
AK (Sullivan) Solid R to Lean R


Cook Political Ratings

Emerging Narratives


Signaling from the President

President Trump has signaled openly that Republicans face a tough path in the 2026 midterm elections, warning GOP lawmakers that failing to retain control of Congress could even lead to another impeachment push by Democrats.


Trump’s comments come as internal aides urge him to pivot more toward kitchen-table issues like the economy and healthcare that matter to general election voters. Recent polling shows Trump’s approval on the economy hovering near one-third of Americans, reflecting widespread voter dissatisfaction with economic leadership and reinforcing concerns about Republican prospects in November. Read More.


On the Horizon


Upcoming Elections:

TX-18 Runoff: January 31 (Early Voting begins January 21)

NJ-11 Primary: February 5

NJ-11 General: April 16

2026 Midterms: November 3

AxAdvocacy Expands to Ohio with Addition of Former State Representative Jon Cross as Principal

By Bob Salera • September 1, 2026
AxAdvocacy Expands to Ohio with Addition of Former State Representative Jon Cross as Principal Firm’s Columbus practice marks its latest expansion into key state capitals

Public Affairs Has a Performance Problem

By Ashlee Stephenson • August 13, 2026
Public Affairs Has a Performance Problem There is a hard truth our industry doesn't like to admit. Public affairs has become far too comfortable confusing activity with accomplishment. Too many firms celebrate meetings instead of momentum. They count bill introductions instead of policy victories. They send clients long recaps filled with updates everyone could have read themselves and call it strategy. That isn't advocacy. That's administration. Clients aren't hiring us to tell them what happened in Washington yesterday. They're hiring us to change what happens tomorrow. Somewhere along the way, much of our industry accepted that checking the box was enough. Weekly reports became the deliverable. Legislative summaries became the strategy. Calendar invites became evidence of value. Meanwhile, the companies paying the bills are facing the fastest-moving policy environment in decades. Artificial Intelligence Trade Tariffs Tax Policy Energy Workforce Shortages Antitrust China ESG Supply Chains State Activism Election Volatility The stakes have never been higher. Yet many public affairs programs are operating exactly as they did fifteen years ago. That should concern every CEO. Effort Isn't a KPI One of the biggest myths in our profession is that effort equals value. It doesn't. Clients don't care how many meetings you scheduled. They care whether their issue moved. They don't care how many memos you wrote. They care whether the narrative changed. They don't care how busy your team looked. They care whether they are better positioned because of your work. Being busy has become a substitute for being effective. The two are not the same. The Next Generation of Public Affairs The firms that will define the next decade won't be the ones with the biggest lobbying teams. They'll be the ones that integrate policy, communications, research, digital strategy, coalition building, and executive positioning into one coordinated campaign. Public affairs isn't just government relations anymore. It’s: Business Strategy Market Strategy Reputation Management Competitive Advantage The firms still operating in silos will be left behind. Relationships Matter. Initiative Matters More. Relationships remain the currency of influence. But relationships alone are no longer enough. Clients expect: Ideas before they ask for them Opportunities before they appear Intelligence before it becomes news Their advisors to think like business leaders - not order takers The firms creating the most value today aren't waiting for assignments. They are creating opportunities. Raise the Standard This profession deserves better than status updates disguised as strategy. It deserves: Curiosity Creativity Relentless preparation A bias toward action An obsession with producing measurable outcomes Our clients don't need more emails. They don't need another legislative summary. They need partners willing to challenge conventional thinking, anticipate what's next, and fight relentlessly for results. That's the standard. It should be the expectation - not the exception.

AxAdvocacy Launches Full-Service California Government Relations Practice with Addition of Veteran Lobbyist Joe Devine

By Bob Salera • August 3, 2026
Firm significantly expands its presence in the nation's largest state economy, offering clients a fully integrated federal, state, local, and public affairs platform.

AxIndex, Edition 15

July 28, 2026
SNAPSHOT

AxIndex, Edition 14

July 15, 2026
SNAPSHOT

The DSA Surge: What Socialist Primary Wins Mean for Business and the Policy Landscape

By Bob Salera • July 9, 2026
The DSA Surge: What Socialist Primary Wins Mean for Business and the Policy Landscape  In the span of two election cycles, the Democratic Socialists of America have gone from insurgent outsiders to a genuine force inside the Democratic Party. A new analysis of DSA's national endorsement record shows 25 primary wins across 15 states so far in the 2025-2026 cycle, a 62 percent success rate stretching from New York city councils to congressional primaries in Pennsylvania and Colorado. The trend is accelerating, and its implications run well beyond the halls of Congress. A Narrow Majority and a Familiar Problem The most immediate political concern is what happens on Capitol Hill if Democrats win the House with a thin margin. Hakeem Jeffries would face the same arithmetic Kevin McCarthy encountered with the House Freedom Caucus: a small group of ideologically committed members can hold a majority hostage. McCarthy was driven from the speakership in October 2023 by fewer than ten members. A larger DSA-aligned caucus, operating from the opposite end of the spectrum with fresh electoral mandates and no institutional loyalty to leadership, could prove equally disruptive. The Squad has already shown a willingness to break with Democratic leadership on appropriations, foreign policy, and procedural votes. More members with the same ideological profile and stronger grassroots backing would only amplify that dynamic. The Bigger Story Is Not Congress Congress gets the attention, but state legislatures and local governments set the conditions in which businesses actually operate. DSA candidates have won primaries in Georgia's state house, Minnesota's city councils, and city councils from New Jersey to Wisconsin to Arizona. These offices are pipelines. Today's Ithaca city councilmember is tomorrow's state legislator. The ideology rarely moderates as candidates advance. DSA's tracker shows an overall candidate win rate just above 50 percent since 2016, but the trend line matters: their 2025 cycle rate hit 62 percent, among the highest in their history. They are getting better at targeting winnable races, recruiting credible candidates, and turning out their base in low-turnout primaries where a motivated minority can determine outcomes. What It Means for Business in Blue States DSA's platform is not a vague progressive wish list. It calls for high progressive taxation, aggressive labor mandates, rent control, restructuring or defunding police, and opposition to most market-rate development. In jurisdictions where DSA-backed officials hold real power, those positions have translated into tangible policy. Minneapolis, where DSA holds several city council seats, has moved aggressively on landlord restrictions and business tax increases. San Francisco, where DSA-backed supervisor Dean Preston held power for years, saw some of the most restrictive commercial policies of any major American city before his 2024 defeat. Chicago's DSA aldermanic bloc has been a consistent source of opposition to development and public safety investment. These are not abstract ideological disputes. They represent direct compliance costs, operational risk, and a fundamentally less hospitable environment for investment. The National Drag, the State-Level Threat Nationally, a Democratic Party increasingly defined by its socialist wing faces real structural vulnerabilities. The 2024 results underscored how badly economic anxiety and perceptions of ideological overreach damage Democrats with working-class voters. An overtly socialist brand does not win back those voters. In competitive states and districts, it is a liability. But DSA does not need to win nationally to reshape policy. In blue states, a narrow legislative majority is enough to pass sweeping changes to tax policy, labor law, zoning, and regulatory structure. The voters most affected by those policies often have no political recourse. They cannot flip the state, and moving is not always an option. The Bottom Line DSA's electoral growth is not a narrative. It is a documented trend with a consistent track record across eight years and nearly 300 tracked candidates. For business and advocacy organizations, the lesson is that down-ballot primaries are where the policy environment is actually determined. A city council race in Milwaukee or a state house primary in Georgia does not generate national headlines, but it shapes the regulatory and tax climate that affects daily operations. Monitoring these races, engaging early, and understanding who holds office at every level of government matters more now than at any point in recent memory. The decisions being made in city council chambers today are the legislation being voted on in state capitals in five years.