AxIndex, Edition 1

Our Top 3:

1) Redistricting Chaos Creeps Into 2026 Planning: Ongoing redistricting battles in Wisconsin and Florida are creating uncertainty for House candidates as filing deadlines approach.


2) Economic Anxiety Ends 2025 On A Low Note: While inflation headlines have softened, voter frustration with the state of the economy sat at -33 at the end of the year, its lowest since July 2024.


3) Notable Retirements Are Beginning To Pop: A growing number of senior lawmakers in Washington have begun announcing plans to step aside, signaling early turnover ahead of 2026. At the state level, Tim Walz announced he will not seek reelection, a decision that follows a period of heightened scrutiny and controversy in Minnesota and sets off an open-seat race in a closely watched state with an open Senate seat for the Democrats to defend.


National Sentiment Tracking


Voters Still Concerned About Costs Over Everything Else

Compared with polling from last year, inflation and prices remain the top voter concern, though the share citing it as the single most important issue has softened modestly as inflation cools. Even with that dip, cost-related issues continue to crowd out all others: inflation (26%), healthcare (12%), and jobs and the economy (11%) together account for nearly half of voter concern. Immigration (10%) and civil rights (9%) remain on the list but are secondary, suggesting that voters are still filtering political debates through an affordability lens rather than ideological ones. Read More.


What This Means
For candidates and outside groups heading into 2026, economic framing is unavoidable. Even when talking about healthcare, immigration, or regulation, voters are looking for answers to how policies affect household costs, wages, and financial stability.


Voter Groups Shift In Support For Trump

A new Economist/YouGov poll covering January 2–5, 2026, finds mixed movement in President Donald Trump’s job approval: his standing improved among men and Hispanic voters compared with the prior week, while approval among Republicans and women declined. Despite those shifts within subgroups, Trump’s overall approval remains down nationally, reflecting broader voter dissatisfaction.


Then & now context matters. Today, Trump’s RealClearPolitics average sits at 43.8% approve / 52.6% disapprove (-8.8). On the same point in 2018, his approval was lower, and opposition was far deeper: 39.4% approve / 56.0% disapprove (-16.6). While approval is still down, the narrower gap today points to a sturdier base of support than during his first term.


Key takeaways:

  • Men & Hispanic voters: Trump’s approval ticked up in the latest numbers.
  • Republicans & women: Both groups showed declining support for his performance compared with recent polling.


Overall national picture: This nuanced movement highlights how demographic coalitions are shifting subtly and could influence messaging strategies for both parties in 2026.

Record Share of Americans Now Identify as Independents


A new Gallup poll finds that 45% of U.S. adults now identify as political independents, the highest level on record and above previous peaks of 43% in 2014, 2023, and 2024. Meanwhile, identification with the two major parties is evenly split, 27% Democrat and 27% Republican, meaning the independent bloc now dwarfs both party cores. Younger generations, especially Gen Z, are driving much of this growth in independent identity.


House Highlights


GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa Dies at 65

Representative Douglas LaMalfa, who diligently served California's 1st District for 13 years, passed away last week. LaMalfa, a fourth-generation rice farmer, was a champion for agriculture and wildfire prevention during his time in Congress. 


With his passing, the Republicans' majority in the House shrank even further. The current split stands at 218-213. California will need to call a special election to replace LaMalfa, which could come as late as June. Read More.


Polling At A Glance

Polling
RCP Average Generic Ballot: Dem 46.2 – GOP 42.2 (D+4.0)
On this day in:
2022: GOP 42.8 – Dem 41.8 (R+1.0)
2018: Dem 48.3 – GOP 37.1 (D+11.2)

Cook Ratings
Changes:
WA-08: Likely D to Solid D


Retirements


Notable retirements from Congress are beginning to come out as the election year gets underway. The current total sits at 47 incumbent members (21 Democrats / 26 Republicans) of the House who have announced they are not seeking re-election. 


For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House. 


Rep. Neal Dunn Announces Retirement

Rep. Neal Dunn announced he will not seek re-election to the U.S. House in 2026. Dunn served five terms representing Florida’s 2nd Congressional District. This decision creates an open seat in Florida’s 2nd District, which is rated an R+8. Read More.


Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) Announces Retirement

Rep. Hoyer, the longest-serving Democrat currently in the U.S. House, confirmed he will retire at the end of his term. He has represented Maryland's 5th District in the House since 1981 and served for decades in Democratic leadership roles. Read More.


Redistricting



AxAdvocacy has been tracking all the latest shifts in redistricting. Above is the latest redistricting update based on recent events and projections for the new year, not taking into consideration potential dynamic shifts, such as the outcome in the Voting Rights Act cases. 


Florida to hold special redistricting session ahead of 2026 midterms

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has announced a special legislative session in late April 2026 for the state legislature to redraw the state’s congressional districts, a rare mid-decade redistricting effort aimed at reflecting population changes and potentially benefiting Republicans ahead of the November elections. Republicans could gain up to five seats under a new map. Read More.


Wisconsin redistricting fight may stretch past 2026 midterms

Two lawsuits challenging Wisconsin’s current congressional maps, which now favor Republican candidates, are moving through the courts, but recent hearings suggest they likely won't be resolved in time to change the districts for the November 2026 elections. One case’s attorneys argue new maps could be in place before next year’s vote, but judges signaled that a more extended timeline, potentially into 2027, is more realistic. That means current boundaries will probably remain for the upcoming midterms unless the court accelerates its schedule. Read More.


Senate Highlights


Retirements

So far, 9 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress. 


Mary Peltola Enters Alaska Senate Race, Boosting Democratic Hopes

Former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola officially announced her campaign for the 2026 U.S. Senate seat in Alaska, challenging two-term Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. Peltola, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, is pitching a populist platform centered on lowering costs and putting Alaska’s interests first. Her entry provides Democrats with one of their strongest recruits in a deeply Republican state, where Trump won by double digits in 2024, and elevates Alaska from a long shot to a plausibly competitive Senate contest in the fight for control of the chamber. Campaigns will first meet in a top-four ranked-choice primary in August, with the general election in November. Read More. 


Walz Exit Could leave two open seats in MN

Gov. Tim Walz’s decision not to seek reelection is rippling across Minnesota politics, compounding instability in a state already facing an open U.S. Senate seat after Tina Smith announced her retirement. The shake-up has intensified speculation that Amy Klobuchar could enter the governor’s race, a move that would further scramble the Democratic field and force a rapid recalibration in both statewide contests. While Minnesota remains blue-leaning, overlapping open races, crowded primaries, and late-breaking candidate decisions are raising the risk of a more chaotic and competitive cycle than either party initially anticipated. Read More.


Polling at a glance

Recent Polls
Emerson: IL Dem Primary: Krishnamoorthi 31, Stratton 10, Kelly 8, Ryan 2, Maxwell 1, Botsford 1, Dean 1
Emerson: IL GOP Primary: Tracy 6, Tillman 3, Evans 3, Long 2, Capparelli 2, Chlebek 1

Cook Ratings
Changes:
AK (Sullivan) Solid R to Lean R


Cook Political Ratings

Emerging Narratives


Signaling from the President

President Trump has signaled openly that Republicans face a tough path in the 2026 midterm elections, warning GOP lawmakers that failing to retain control of Congress could even lead to another impeachment push by Democrats.


Trump’s comments come as internal aides urge him to pivot more toward kitchen-table issues like the economy and healthcare that matter to general election voters. Recent polling shows Trump’s approval on the economy hovering near one-third of Americans, reflecting widespread voter dissatisfaction with economic leadership and reinforcing concerns about Republican prospects in November. Read More.


On the Horizon


Upcoming Elections:

TX-18 Runoff: January 31 (Early Voting begins January 21)

NJ-11 Primary: February 5

NJ-11 General: April 16

2026 Midterms: November 3

New Years Insight: An Outlook for Infrastructure

By Lauren Splett • January 14, 2026
Big infrastructure decisions are coming fast in 2026. Our resident expert Jack Ruddy explains what’s next—from funding fights to major transportation legislation.

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

By Lauren Splett • January 5, 2026
President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joins SiriusXM POTUS to break down the early outlook for the 2026 midterm elections and the battle for control of Congress. "The words of last year and probably still again this year, Steve, are going to be mid-decade redistricting. I think Republicans are going to end up netting out maybe three or four seats overall when it's all said and done." Watch the interview:

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

By Lauren Splett • December 18, 2025
President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS this morning to discuss President Trump's speech, the Affordable Care Act, and Republican strategy heading into the midterms. "The path to a strong midterm showing runs through President Trump’s base, and that’s exactly who this speech was designed to activate.” Watch the interview:

Mid-Decade Redistricting Battles Give GOP a Net Gain of 1-5 Seats Ahead of 2026

By Lauren Splett • December 16, 2025
Here is the latest redistricting update based on recent events and projections for the new year, not taking into consideration potential dynamic shifts, such as the outcome in the Voting Rights Act cases that may impact redistricting in several other states. Virginia Democrats have taken the first step toward a constitutional amendment that will allow them to overturn the state's non-partisan redistricting commission. In order to do so, the legislature will need to pass the amendment again in the new year and then voters will have their say via referendum in the Spring or Summer. In Florida, Governor DeSantis confirmed that a redistricting effort would take place in the new year. The Florida constitution bans partisan redistricting, so any new map would be subject to challenges, but the state Supreme Court has previously been deferential to the legislature in redistricting matters. Governor JB Pritzker in Illinois has expressed an openness to redistricting, as requested by national Democrats including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, but to date no concrete steps have been taken. If Illinois elects to redraw its map, it would require moving the 2026 primary to later in the year as filing deadlines have already passed.

Bobby Babcock Named to The Hill's Top Lobbyist List 2025

By Lauren Splett • December 11, 2025
Congratulations to AxAdvocacy Principal Bobby Babcock on being named one of The Hill’s Top Lobbyists for 2025! Bobby’s exceptional leadership, strategic insight, and results-driven advocacy on behalf of a diverse portfolio of clients make this recognition well deserved. We’re proud to celebrate his impact and continued contributions to our clients and the industry. The Hill Top Lobbyist List: https://thehill.com/homenews/5632709-top-lobbyists-2025/

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

By Lauren Splett • December 2, 2025
All eyes are on Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District today as voters brave the elements and holiday slump to head to the polls in the special election to replace Fmr. Rep. Mark Green. AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS to unpack the turnout warning signs and what Republicans eyeing 2026 should pay attention to from today’s results. Watch the interview:

What Veterans Day Means to Me: Reflections on Service, Leadership, and Gratitude

By Lauren Splett • November 17, 2025
Every year, as our country pauses to reflect on Veterans Day, I think about the history and meaning behind this solemn day. Originally established as Armistice Day to mark the end of World War I on November 11, 1918, it later evolved into Veterans Day, a day we honor American servicemembers of every generation who have sworn to defend our country. For me, this day means a great deal. As an Army Veteran who served as an Infantry Officer in Afghanistan and Iraq, I often receive a "Thank you for your service." I genuinely appreciate the sentiment, yet I hesitate in how to respond. It was an honor to serve, and I will be forever grateful to have worn the uniform. I am grateful that my years in uniform shaped the person I am today. I learned valuable lessons in leadership and followership; how to build, inspire, and support teams; and the importance of values such as duty, integrity, respect, and selfless service. Those experiences, responsibilities, and perspectives have guided me throughout my civilian career and in my personal life. Most importantly, I am forever grateful for the lifelong friendships forged while serving, bonds strengthened through shared mission, values, hardship, and, oftentimes, humor. It is also important to note that the sacrifices were not solely with the veteran. To the spouses, children, parents, and loved ones who stood behind us, carried the weight at home, and supported their service members through deployments, moves, uncertainty, and long separations, you also served. Our service would not have been possible without your strength and sacrifice. To all who have served, and to the families who served alongside them, a big thank you! Today, we honor your commitment, your sacrifice, and your enduring contribution to our great nation.  Happy Veterans Day!

Mid-Decade Redistricting Battles Give GOP a Net Gain of 2-7 Seats Ahead of 2026

By Lauren Splett • November 17, 2025

Advocating 101: Tips from a Government Affairs Specialist and Former State Senator

By Lauren Splett • November 17, 2025
As a former state senator and government affairs specialist, l've learned advocacy is about trust, relatability, and respect. Here's how to make your case effectively. First, be honest and transparent. Legislators value advocates who present not just their perspective but also anticipate counterarguments. As a senator, I trusted advocates who shared both the benefits and potential pushback of an issue. In Missouri, a legislator's district in the southeast differs vastly from one in the northwest. Each represents unique needs. By laying out all sides, you help legislators serve their constituents, foster trust, and open doors to constructive dialogue. Second, use personal stories to connect. People relate to narratives that humanize an issue. Early in my legislative service, I realized legislators need to put a face to an issue. As a conservative woman who grew up on welfare in a single-parent home and became a mother at 16, I could speak to reforms needed in Missouri's welfare system, mental health services, and child protection laws. I used personal stories to help legislators truly understand these issues. If you have a personal anecdote that ties to your cause and feel comfortable sharing it, do so-it's a universal language that cuts through policy jargon. Third, respect time constraints. A legislator's day is packed with committee meetings, bill reviews, and negotiations to advance their own legislation. Meetings with advocates are just one slice of their responsibilities. They're also human, with families and pressures like anyone else, and need time to decompress. When scheduling meetings, aim for brevity- 15 to 20 minutes is ideal. Deliver your key points quickly and leave room for questions. To make your message stick, provide a concise, bulleted leave-behind. Research shows bulleted lists improve comprehension and retention by up to 20% compared to dense paragraphs (Source: Journal of Technical Writing and Communication, 2018). A one-page document with 3-5 clear points ensures your message is digestible and memorable. For example, when advocating for mental health needs, I left behind a single sheet summarizing cost savings, how recovery services reduce recidivism compared to incarceration, and familial impact in bullet points.  Finally, follow up thoughtfully. After a week or two, reach out to see if the legislator has questions or needs more information. This shows you value their input without being overbearing. A simple email or call can keep your issue top of mind. Don't be discouraged if you speak to their staff instead-staff play an integral role in every legislative office. Advocacy is about relationships, not just results. By being honest, relatable, concise, and respectful, you'll make your case and build lasting connections with decision-makers.

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

By Lauren Splett • November 17, 2025
Shutdown politics hurts Main Street first. AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS to discuss why Congress needs to get back to governing before paychecks go undelivered next week.  Watch the full interview: