AxAdvocacy Welcomes Senior House Committee Staff Director Jack Ruddy as Senior Vice President of Government Relations

Congratulations to Senior Vice President Jeff Billman on one year at AxAdvocacy! Below, he shares his perspective on the shift from Capitol Hill to a multi-client lobbying firm.

Special elections are special, simply put. In the Texas race, the jungle primary produced a Republican majority when two GOP candidates collectively won over half the vote. But that advantage didn’t carry through to the runoff, where an enthusiasm gap led Democrats to over-perform in the turnout game. The takeaway: in off-cycle elections, turnout dynamics can matter more than territory. Listen to AxAdvocacy Preside nt Ashlee Rich Stephenson break down what we learned from the Texas special runoff. Watch the interview:

Our Top 3: 1) Backlash Over Federal Immigration Enforcement Intensifies: National outrage has surged after two fatal shootings by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis, complicating the Trump administration’s immigration strategy and turning ICE enforcement into a central campaign issue. 2) More Redistricting Moves Continue to Pop: Republicans’ appeal of a court ruling throwing out New York City’s only GOP-held House district comes as Democrats simultaneously push mid-decade redistricting efforts in Maryland and pursue a ballot move in Virginia to reclaim map-drawing power. 3) High Profile Names Shake Up Senate Races: The 2026 map is drawing marquee names as Julia Letlow, Michele Tafoya, and Alexander Vindman launch Senate bids in their respective states, signaling both parties’ intent to nationalize key races early and reshaping the battleground well ahead of November. National Sentiment Tracking Even Before MN Shooting, Voters Overwhelmingly Disapprove of ICE

Our healthcare policy expert, Kelly McElhaney, breaks down how HHS oversight, FDA guidance, and national biotechnology strategy will reshape regulatory expectations and what innovators need to do now to stay ahead.

Our Top 3: 1) Redistricting Chaos Creeps Into 2026 Planning: Ongoing redistricting battles in Wisconsin and Florida are creating uncertainty for House candidates as filing deadlines approach. 2) Economic Anxiety Ends 2025 On A Low Note: While inflation headlines have softened, voter frustration with the state of the economy sat at -33 at the end of the year, its lowest since July 2024. 3) Notable Retirements Are Beginning To Pop: A growing number of senior lawmakers in Washington have begun announcing plans to step aside, signaling early turnover ahead of 2026. At the state level, Tim Walz announced he will not seek reelection, a decision that follows a period of heightened scrutiny and controversy in Minnesota and sets off an open-seat race in a closely watched state with an open Senate seat for the Democrats to defend. National Sentiment Tracking Voters Still Concerned About Costs Over Everything Else Compared with polling from last year, inflation and prices remain the top voter concern, though the share citing it as the single most important issue has softened modestly as inflation cools. Even with that dip, cost-related issues continue to crowd out all others: inflation (26%), healthcare (12%), and jobs and the economy (11%) together account for nearly half of voter concern. Immigration (10%) and civil rights (9%) remain on the list but are secondary, suggesting that voters are still filtering political debates through an affordability lens rather than ideological ones. Read More. What This Means For candidates and outside groups heading into 2026, economic framing is unavoidable. Even when talking about healthcare, immigration, or regulation, voters are looking for answers to how policies affect household costs, wages, and financial stability. Voter Groups Shift In Support For Trump A new Economist/YouGov poll covering January 2–5, 2026, finds mixed movement in President Donald Trump’s job approval: his standing improved among men and Hispanic voters compared with the prior week, while approval among Republicans and women declined. Despite those shifts within subgroups, Trump’s overall approval remains down nationally, reflecting broader voter dissatisfaction. Then & now context matters. Today, Trump’s RealClearPolitics average sits at 43.8% approve / 52.6% disapprove (-8.8). On the same point in 2018, his approval was lower, and opposition was far deeper: 39.4% approve / 56.0% disapprove (-16.6). While approval is still down, the narrower gap today points to a sturdier base of support than during his first term. Key takeaways: Men & Hispanic voters: Trump’s approval ticked up in the latest numbers. Republicans & women: Both groups showed declining support for his performance compared with recent polling. Overall national picture: This nuanced movement highlights how demographic coalitions are shifting subtly and could influence messaging strategies for both parties in 2026. 

Big infrastructure decisions are coming fast in 2026. Our resident expert Jack Ruddy explains what’s next—from funding fights to major transportation legislation.

President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joins SiriusXM POTUS to break down the early outlook for the 2026 midterm elections and the battle for control of Congress. "The words of last year and probably still again this year, Steve, are going to be mid-decade redistricting. I think Republicans are going to end up netting out maybe three or four seats overall when it's all said and done." Watch the interview:

President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS this morning to discuss President Trump's speech, the Affordable Care Act, and Republican strategy heading into the midterms. "The path to a strong midterm showing runs through President Trump’s base, and that’s exactly who this speech was designed to activate.” Watch the interview:

Here is the latest redistricting update based on recent events and projections for the new year, not taking into consideration potential dynamic shifts, such as the outcome in the Voting Rights Act cases that may impact redistricting in several other states. Virginia Democrats have taken the first step toward a constitutional amendment that will allow them to overturn the state's non-partisan redistricting commission. In order to do so, the legislature will need to pass the amendment again in the new year and then voters will have their say via referendum in the Spring or Summer. In Florida, Governor DeSantis confirmed that a redistricting effort would take place in the new year. The Florida constitution bans partisan redistricting, so any new map would be subject to challenges, but the state Supreme Court has previously been deferential to the legislature in redistricting matters. Governor JB Pritzker in Illinois has expressed an openness to redistricting, as requested by national Democrats including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, but to date no concrete steps have been taken. If Illinois elects to redraw its map, it would require moving the 2026 primary to later in the year as filing deadlines have already passed.