Mid-Decade Redistricting Battles Give GOP a Net Gain of 1-5 Seats Ahead of 2026
Here is the latest redistricting update based on recent events and projections for the new year, not taking into consideration potential dynamic shifts, such as the outcome in the Voting Rights Act cases that may impact redistricting in several other states.
Virginia Democrats have taken the first step toward a constitutional amendment that will allow them to overturn the state's non-partisan redistricting commission. In order to do so, the legislature will need to pass the amendment again in the new year and then voters will have their say via referendum in the Spring or Summer.
In Florida, Governor DeSantis confirmed that a redistricting effort would take place in the new year. The Florida constitution bans partisan redistricting, so any new map would be subject to challenges, but the state Supreme Court has previously been deferential to the legislature in redistricting matters.
Governor JB Pritzker in Illinois has expressed an openness to redistricting, as requested by national Democrats including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, but to date no concrete steps have been taken. If Illinois elects to redraw its map, it would require moving the 2026 primary to later in the year as filing deadlines have already passed.
Congratulations to AxAdvocacy Principal Bobby Babcock on being named one of The Hill’s Top Lobbyists for 2025! Bobby’s exceptional leadership, strategic insight, and results-driven advocacy on behalf of a diverse portfolio of clients make this recognition well deserved. We’re proud to celebrate his impact and continued contributions to our clients and the industry. The Hill Top Lobbyist List: https://thehill.com/homenews/5632709-top-lobbyists-2025/
All eyes are on Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District today as voters brave the elements and holiday slump to head to the polls in the special election to replace Fmr. Rep. Mark Green. AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS to unpack the turnout warning signs and what Republicans eyeing 2026 should pay attention to from today’s results. Watch the interview:
Every year, as our country pauses to reflect on Veterans Day, I think about the history and meaning behind this solemn day. Originally established as Armistice Day to mark the end of World War I on November 11, 1918, it later evolved into Veterans Day, a day we honor American servicemembers of every generation who have sworn to defend our country. For me, this day means a great deal. As an Army Veteran who served as an Infantry Officer in Afghanistan and Iraq, I often receive a "Thank you for your service." I genuinely appreciate the sentiment, yet I hesitate in how to respond. It was an honor to serve, and I will be forever grateful to have worn the uniform. I am grateful that my years in uniform shaped the person I am today. I learned valuable lessons in leadership and followership; how to build, inspire, and support teams; and the importance of values such as duty, integrity, respect, and selfless service. Those experiences, responsibilities, and perspectives have guided me throughout my civilian career and in my personal life. Most importantly, I am forever grateful for the lifelong friendships forged while serving, bonds strengthened through shared mission, values, hardship, and, oftentimes, humor. It is also important to note that the sacrifices were not solely with the veteran. To the spouses, children, parents, and loved ones who stood behind us, carried the weight at home, and supported their service members through deployments, moves, uncertainty, and long separations, you also served. Our service would not have been possible without your strength and sacrifice. To all who have served, and to the families who served alongside them, a big thank you! Today, we honor your commitment, your sacrifice, and your enduring contribution to our great nation. Happy Veterans Day!
As a former state senator and government affairs specialist, l've learned advocacy is about trust, relatability, and respect. Here's how to make your case effectively. First, be honest and transparent. Legislators value advocates who present not just their perspective but also anticipate counterarguments. As a senator, I trusted advocates who shared both the benefits and potential pushback of an issue. In Missouri, a legislator's district in the southeast differs vastly from one in the northwest. Each represents unique needs. By laying out all sides, you help legislators serve their constituents, foster trust, and open doors to constructive dialogue. Second, use personal stories to connect. People relate to narratives that humanize an issue. Early in my legislative service, I realized legislators need to put a face to an issue. As a conservative woman who grew up on welfare in a single-parent home and became a mother at 16, I could speak to reforms needed in Missouri's welfare system, mental health services, and child protection laws. I used personal stories to help legislators truly understand these issues. If you have a personal anecdote that ties to your cause and feel comfortable sharing it, do so-it's a universal language that cuts through policy jargon. Third, respect time constraints. A legislator's day is packed with committee meetings, bill reviews, and negotiations to advance their own legislation. Meetings with advocates are just one slice of their responsibilities. They're also human, with families and pressures like anyone else, and need time to decompress. When scheduling meetings, aim for brevity- 15 to 20 minutes is ideal. Deliver your key points quickly and leave room for questions. To make your message stick, provide a concise, bulleted leave-behind. Research shows bulleted lists improve comprehension and retention by up to 20% compared to dense paragraphs (Source: Journal of Technical Writing and Communication, 2018). A one-page document with 3-5 clear points ensures your message is digestible and memorable. For example, when advocating for mental health needs, I left behind a single sheet summarizing cost savings, how recovery services reduce recidivism compared to incarceration, and familial impact in bullet points. Finally, follow up thoughtfully. After a week or two, reach out to see if the legislator has questions or needs more information. This shows you value their input without being overbearing. A simple email or call can keep your issue top of mind. Don't be discouraged if you speak to their staff instead-staff play an integral role in every legislative office. Advocacy is about relationships, not just results. By being honest, relatable, concise, and respectful, you'll make your case and build lasting connections with decision-makers.
Shutdown politics hurts Main Street first. AxAdvocacy President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined SiriusXM POTUS to discuss why Congress needs to get back to governing before paychecks go undelivered next week. Watch the full interview:
The next big federal fight won’t start in Washington — it’s already brewing in the states. Want to stay ahead of emerging policy trends? Read our latest memo from our Principal of Pennsylvania, Alex Rahn, and contact our team to learn how our state and local expertise can help you spot, shape, and win the battles before they reach D.C.
In our latest memo, Principal of Public Affairs Elizabeth Coit explains how organizations can stay ahead of the curve with their public affairs campaigns in the modern political and media environment: ▪️Anticipate ▪️Adapt ▪️Build Momentum
The Hidden Cost of Delay: Why Federal Lease Renewals Need a Proactive Strategy For federal agencies, lease renewals can feel like a distraction from mission-critical work—until delays cause real consequences: higher costs, relocation headaches, operational disruptions, and even political fallout. In our latest memo, AxAdvocacy Senior Advisor Giancarlo Brizzi—former Regional Commissioner for the U.S. General Services Administration Public Buildings Service—explains why early, proactive planning is essential for federal lease renewals. 📌 The risks of waiting: Lost negotiating power Unfavorable lease terms Costly temporary space Delayed facility upgrades Mission disruption 📌 Why start early: Federal approvals can take years Early alignment ensures better rates and terms Data-driven planning improves renewal success 36-month timelines dramatically reduce holdovers During his tenure at GSA, Giancarlo’s region boosted its lease replacement rate from the mid-40% range to over 90% by dollar value—all by starting early, staying disciplined, and using data to guide decisions. Federal real estate planning shouldn’t be seen as just compliance—it’s a strategic opportunity to align space with mission delivery. For agencies, the message is clear: start at least three years in advance. Your mission—and the American people—depend on it. Read the full memo HERE
U.S. Chamber Senior Political Strategist Ashlee Rich Stephenson was quoted in Politico Morning Trade on the Chamber’s recent tax polling, which showed wide support for the pro-growth provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. "'There is far more to the narrative than topline reports indicating the bill is unpopular, particularly when large percentages of the nation are not educated on the legislation itself or the personal benefits that will help communities across the nation,' wrote Ashlee Rich Stephenson, the Chamber’s senior political strategist." The New York Times also reported on the poll after Fox Business broke the news on Monday. The poll was shared by the White House Rapid Response , White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt , and the Small Business Administration . You can read the memo here .
