Mid-Decade Redistricting Battles Give GOP a Net Gain of 1-5 Seats Ahead of 2026
Here is the latest redistricting update based on recent events and projections for the new year, not taking into consideration potential dynamic shifts, such as the outcome in the Voting Rights Act cases that may impact redistricting in several other states.
Virginia Democrats have taken the first step toward a constitutional amendment that will allow them to overturn the state's non-partisan redistricting commission. In order to do so, the legislature will need to pass the amendment again in the new year and then voters will have their say via referendum in the Spring or Summer.
In Florida, Governor DeSantis confirmed that a redistricting effort would take place in the new year. The Florida constitution bans partisan redistricting, so any new map would be subject to challenges, but the state Supreme Court has previously been deferential to the legislature in redistricting matters.
Governor JB Pritzker in Illinois has expressed an openness to redistricting, as requested by national Democrats including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, but to date no concrete steps have been taken. If Illinois elects to redraw its map, it would require moving the 2026 primary to later in the year as filing deadlines have already passed.
