AxIndex, Edition 11

 

SNAPSHOT

 

Our Top 3:


1) Affordability Is the Defining Issue and Neither Party Has Closed the Deal:

Fifty-three percent of Americans say the cost of living is the worst they can remember, and nearly half blame Trump. But Democrats haven't consolidated around a message, as incumbents from Iowa's Miller-Meeks district to California's Central Valley face challengers running almost entirely on healthcare and cost of living. Republican strategists believe an Iran war resolution could reset the economic narrative, but with gas prices projected to stay elevated for months, Oklahoma's minimum wage ballot fight is a reminder that voters across the spectrum are looking for answers neither party is fully delivering.


2) Redistricting Is the Biggest Structural Variable of the Cycle:
Republicans have enacted new maps in seven states so far and project gains of up to 14 seats, while Democrats eye offsetting pickups in California and blue states. Legal battles in Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana will determine whether the maps hold, and both parties are already war-gaming 2028. The clearest proof of redistricting's power came in Texas, where two Democratic incumbents were forced into the same seat, ending Al Green's two-decade career. Louisiana's erasure of Cleo Fields' district and Georgia's pending special session show the effort is still accelerating, even as courts push back.


3) The Infrastructure of Political Information Is Under Pressure:

Democrats' path to a Senate majority runs through states that are proving messier than expected. In Maine, Graham Platner holds a consistent polling lead over Susan Collins but recent personal controversy has begun moving prediction markets. In Alaska, a second Dan Sullivan in the race risks siphoning votes from the incumbent in what was already a tighter-than-expected contest. In Texas, Ken Paxton's primary win over John Cornyn, fueled by a last-minute Trump endorsement and a deep grassroots base, shifted Cook's rating to lean Republican, but Paxton enters the general with a proven three-statewide-win record and Trump's full backing in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in decades. The map is fluid, but still Republicans have more advantages to fall back on.


 

National Sentiment Tracking

 

The Iran War Is Becoming an Economic Albatross

Six months into Trump's second term, the affordability problem that defined Biden's political collapse is now defining Trump's. A new POLITICO/Public First poll finds 53 percent of Americans say the cost of living is the worst they can remember, virtually unchanged from November, and nearly half still place primary economic blame on Trump rather than Biden. A plurality say their finances have worsened since he took office, including 18 percent of his own 2024 voters.

The Iran war is the compounding variable. More than 60 percent of Americans, including majorities of both Trump and Harris voters, say the conflict has made things more expensive, and Trump's own supporters are evenly split on whether he has done enough to protect them from the fallout. Republican strategists are increasingly candid that a resolution is the clearest path to an improved economic picture before November, but gas prices are projected to stay elevated for months, and the White House's "short-term disruptions" message is landing poorly with voters already feeling the pinch. Read More.

HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

House
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 47.9 Dem - 40.3 GOP (D +7.6)
On this day in:
2022: 45.7 GOP - 43.8 Dem (R+1.9)
2018: 43.0 Dem - 39.8 GOP (D+3.2)


Cook Ratings
Recent Changes:
LA-06: Solid D -> Solid R


Retirements

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House. 

Incumbent Democrats Face a Wave of Primary Challenges

Four House incumbents have already lost re-election bids this year, and roughly a dozen more face serious threats ahead, with the heaviest action on the Democratic side. The challenges fall into two categories: generational and ideological. In California, well-funded younger Democrats are taking on entrenched incumbents like Reps. Mike Thompson and Brad Sherman. In Connecticut, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin has outraised Rep. John Larson and won the state party endorsement. Justice Democrats, meanwhile, has endorsed a slate of progressive challengers targeting incumbents in Colorado, New York, Michigan, and Missouri, where former Rep. Cori Bush is mounting a comeback against Rep. Wesley Bell.


The most combustible primary may be in California, where Republican Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim are locked in a brutal incumbent-on-incumbent race triggered by Democratic redistricting, a contest that has devolved into attacks over Trump loyalty and a decades-old scandal. Republicans, as one strategist put it, will lose a great member either way. Read More.

California's 13th Is a Bellwether Worth Watching Again

California's redrawn 13th Congressional District is shaping up as one of the cycle's most closely watched House races. The seat has been decided by fewer than 600 votes in each of the last two elections, with Republican John Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray trading it back and forth in 2022 and 2024. Gray now holds it under new lines approved by voters through Proposition 50, which shifted the district to include more of Stockton and is rated more favorable to Democrats by Cook Political Report.

Gray's main threat is likely Republican Kevin Lincoln II, Stockton's former mayor, who has secured endorsements from both Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson. With the new map tilting slightly bluer but Lincoln's profile competitive, the 13th could once again be the last House race called this cycle. Read More.

Iowa's 1st: A Toss-Up for the Third Time Running

Iowa's 1st Congressional District, rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, is gearing up for what could be a third straight matchup between Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan. 


Miller-Meeks won their 2024 rematch by just 799 votes after a recount. Both face primary challengers Tuesday, though neither is considered seriously threatened. Miller-Meeks is up against self-proclaimed MAGA Republican David Pautsch, who lost to her by 12 points in 2024. Bohannan faces healthcare worker Travis Terrell in the Democratic primary.


Both frontrunners are running heavily on healthcare, Bohannan attacking Miller-Meeks' vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and its Medicaid cuts, and Miller-Meeks defending the vote as targeting waste and fraud. Trump won the district by 8 points in 2024, and Republicans currently outnumber registered Democrats by more than 26,000 in the district, a headwind Bohannan will need to overcome again in November. Read More.

Redistricting Ends Al Green's Two-Decade Career

Freshman Rep. Christian Menefee defeated veteran Rep. Al Green in a Democratic primary runoff on May 27, ending the 78-year-old's two-decade congressional career. The race was a direct product of Texas Republicans' mid-decade redistricting, which merged their previously neighboring Houston-area districts and forced the incumbents into the same seat. Green's defeat carried an additional dimension: pro-cryptocurrency super PAC Fairshake spent millions to unseat him over his opposition to the industry and claimed credit for the outcome.


Menefee framed his win in explicitly anti-redistricting terms, telling supporters Republicans "drew maps designed to dilute our power." Green signaled he isn't finished, telling supporters "this is not the end." Read More.

Redistricting

Louisiana Eliminates a Second Democratic Seat

Louisiana Republicans passed a new congressional map Friday erasing Rep. Cleo Fields' district, which stretched from Shreveport to Baton Rouge, while redrawing Rep. Troy Carter's New Orleans-based seat to largely mirror his 2022 district. The move was made possible by the Supreme Court's recent decision narrowing the Voting Rights Act. Gov. Jeff Landry, who invoked emergency authority to cancel May primaries and push House races to November 3, is expected to sign the map.

The process drew pushback even from Republicans, with Rep. Clay Higgins calling it a "Frankenstein-looking thing" drawn in secret. Legal challenges are likely, including from plaintiffs in Louisiana v. Callais. The outcome is part of a redistricting wave now spanning 10 states, several of which remain tied up in court. Read More.

Redistricting Wave Hits Turbulence in Alabama and South Carolina

Trump's mid-decade redistricting push suffered a pair of setbacks Tuesday. In South Carolina, the state Senate rejected a Republican plan to cancel ongoing congressional primaries and redraw districts to eliminate Rep. Jim Clyburn's seat, with some GOP senators citing conscience and timing as early voting was already underway. In Alabama, a federal three-judge panel blocked a Republican-drawn map, ruling it "intentionally discriminated based on race," and ordered the continued use of a court-imposed map with two majority-Black districts. Alabama's AG vowed an immediate appeal to the Supreme Court.


Republicans did notch wins elsewhere. A Florida state judge declined to block new GOP-drawn maps that could yield as many as four additional Republican seats, and a federal court refused to temporarily halt Tennessee's redrawn districts. The broader scoreboard remains tilted toward Republicans, who project gains of up to 14 seats from redistricting efforts, while Democrats eye five potential pickups from California's new voter-approved map and one from a court-imposed Utah map. Legal battles in Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Louisiana ensure the final tally won't be settled before November. Read More.

The Next Gerrymandering Wave Is Already Taking Shape

With midterm maps barely settled, both parties are already positioning for another round of redistricting ahead of 2028. Republicans have adopted new maps in seven states so far this cycle, but left Democratic seats intact in several of them, including Louisiana, Missouri, and potentially Texas, flagging those as targets for elimination in the next round. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has already called a June special session to redraw the state's map following the Supreme Court's decision barring race-based districts, and Indiana, Kansas, and South Carolina are also on the GOP's 2028 target list.


Democrats are vowing a coordinated response. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries identified seven blue states, New York, New Jersey, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Illinois, and Maryland, where the party is already eyeing new maps. It's important to note that most Democratic-controlled states require voter referendums before new lines can take effect, a higher bar than the unilateral legislative action available to Republicans in states like Texas. Still, election analysts assess that Democrats may have more untapped map opportunities heading into 2028 than Republicans do. Back to the drawing board. Read More.

SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

Recent Polls

Trafalgar Group (SC GOP Primary): Graham 52, Lynch 28, Mitchell 4, Dismukes 3, Herrmann 3, Cowen 2
UNH (ME General): Platner (D) 51, Collins (R-i) 42
TIPP (MI Dem Primary): Stevens 35, El-Sayed 31, McMorrow 13
TIPP(MI General): El-Sayed (D) 43, Rogers (R) 42
TIPP(MI General): Stevens (D) 48, Rogers (R) 41
TIPP(MI General): McMorrow (D) 45, Rogers (R) 42


Cook Ratings
Recent Changes
TX: Likely GOP -> Lean GOP

Retirements

So far, 11 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.


Paxton Defeats Cornyn in Texas Senate Runoff

Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff on May 26, ending Cornyn's four-decade electoral career. Trump's last-minute endorsement proved decisive, overcoming a nearly 9-to-1 spending advantage in Cornyn's favor. Cook Political Report shifted the race from "likely" to "lean" Republican following the result, though Paxton has won three statewide races and will face Democrat James Talarico, an Austin state Rep., in a state Trump carried by 14 points.


The path forward has some headwinds. Talarico has significantly outraised Paxton, and whether establishment Republican money fully consolidates behind the nominee remains a question. Still, Paxton enters the general with a proven electoral record, Trump's backing, and a deep well of grassroots support, advantages that could prove difficult for even a well-funded Democrat to overcome in Texas. Read More.

Platner Controversy Tests Democratic Ceiling in Maine

Maine has been one of Democrats' most promising pickup opportunities this cycle, with Graham Platner posting consistent leads over incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, 9 points in a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll, and 7 points each from Pan Atlantic Research and Emerson College. Those margins had positioned the race as a likely Democratic flip, particularly after Gov. Janet Mills declined to run. Recent personal controversy has introduced new uncertainty; however, Democratic win probability on Kalshi fell from 63 to 60 percent, and Polymarket moved in the same direction.


The more significant question is what the controversy signals for November. Platner's primary standing is essentially unchanged, with markets giving him better than 95 percent odds ahead of the June 9 contest. But Collins has survived difficult cycles before by running well ahead of the national Republican baseline, and any sustained erosion of Platner's favorability could give her the opening she needs. Whether his polling leads hold through the summer will be the key indicator of whether this race remains a lean Democratic pickup or tightens into a genuine tossup. Read More.

Double Vision in Alaska

A second Dan Sullivan, Dan J. Sullivan, a former teacher from Petersburg, has entered Alaska’s Senate race against incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, creating potential voter confusion. Republicans allege he is a Democratic plant, a claim Democrats deny. Because Alaska advances the top four candidates from its nonpartisan primary, both Sullivans could appear on the November ballot.


Republicans still hold structural advantages: Alaska hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in nearly 20 years, and Trump won the state by 14 points in 2024. However, Mary Peltola remains well-funded and popular with independents, who make up a large share of Alaska’s electorate. The August 18 primary will be the first indication of whether the duplicate-name dynamic could affect the race. Read More.

IN THE STATES

Trump Endorsement Reshapes South Carolina Governor's Race

President Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in South Carolina's six-way Republican gubernatorial primary on May 29, eleven days before the June 9 contest. Evette had been positioning herself as the de facto Trump candidate for months, drawing sharp pushback from rivals, most notably Rep. Nancy Mace, who was publicly disputing her claims as recently as the morning of the endorsement. Gov. McMaster, who had already backed Evette as his preferred successor, praised the announcement. If no candidate clears 50 percent on June 9, a runoff follows on June 23.


The endorsement landed amid notable intraparty friction. Trump's post came 45 minutes after former Gov. Nikki Haley announced she voted for Rep. Ralph Norman, highlighting the ongoing Haley-Trump divide in South Carolina GOP politics. Meanwhile, Mace, who voted to impeach Trump in 2021 and has since worked to rebuild that relationship, suggested her recent Epstein file demands may have cost her the nod and vowed to stay in regardless. With early voting underway and the field still crowded, the key question is whether Trump's backing consolidates enough support around Evette to avoid a runoff. Read More.

Minimum Wage on the Ballot in Deep-Red Oklahoma

Oklahoma voters will weigh in on State Question 832 on June 16, a measure that would raise the state's minimum wage from $7.25, which has been unchanged since 2009, to $15 by 2029. Polling from GOP firm Cole Hargrave Snodgrass showed it passing as of late April, but the primary electorate is projected to be 69 percent registered Republicans, and business groups, the Farm Bureau, and outgoing Gov. Kevin Stitt have lined up against it on inflation and small business grounds.


The result will signal whether voter appetite for minimum wage increases has been dulled by recent inflation. The issue has historically been a cross-partisan winner, passing 28 of 32 times on statewide ballots since 1996, including in red states like Arkansas, Nebraska, and Florida. California's rejection of an $18 wage floor in 2024 was the first such defeat in nearly three decades, and Oklahoma may determine whether that was an anomaly or a trend. Even if it passes, a Republican-controlled legislature could move to limit its provisions, as Missouri did after a similar initiative succeeded in 2018. Read More.

EMERGING NARRATIVES

The Fake Poll Problem

Silicon sampling, using AI to simulate survey responses in place of actual humans, is moving from fringe experiment to industry standard, with Ipsos, Gallup, and hundreds of millions in Silicon Valley funding now behind it. The immediate flashpoint was an Axios story that cited poll findings on maternal health as fact; the findings were entirely AI-generated. No people were surveyed.

Traditional polling already introduces meaningful model-driven distortion; silicon sampling removes the human check on that distortion entirely, producing outputs that reflect the pollster's assumptions more than actual public sentiment. As AI-simulated polls become cheaper and faster than real ones, the incentive to use them grows — and with it, the risk that political coverage, policy debates, and campaign strategy get shaped by manufactured opinion presented as measured fact. The polling industry has a credibility problem it hasn't solved. Silicon sampling makes it significantly worse. Read More.

ON THE HORIZON

Upcoming Elections:



June 2:
California Primary
CA-01 Special Primary
Iowa Primary
Montana Primary
New Jersey Primary
New Mexico Primary
South Dakota Primary


June 9:
Maine Primary
Nevada Primary
North Dakota Primary
South Carolina Primary


June 16:
CA-14 Special Primary
Oklahoma Primary
Alabama Primary Runoff
Georgia Primary Runoff


June 23:
Maryland Primary
New York Primary
Utah Primary
South Carolina Primary Runoff


June 27:
Louisiana Primary Runoff


June 30:
Colorado Primary

The Morning After: Why Post-Election Planning Starts Now

By Sarah Williams • October 15, 2026
The Morning After: Why Post-Election Planning Starts Now With less than three weeks until Election Day, nearly all the attention is on who will win. For organizations with business before government, the better question is what they will do the morning after. November 3 will reset the cast of characters, shift the leverage, and open one of the most compressed legislative windows of the year. The organizations that come out ahead will be the ones that planned for every outcome before the votes were counted. A Five-Week Sprint The current continuing resolution funds the government through December 11, leaving a lame-duck Congress about five weeks to deal with FY27 spending, the NDAA, a possible third reconciliation package, and expiring programs from surface transportation to healthcare. Many of those decisions will be made by members who just won, just lost, or are about to hand over the gavel. And as Bob Salera noted in his recent look at polling error , today's polling leads are provisional, so the smart move is to plan for every scenario, not just the forecast. What to Do Now The next three weeks are the best time an organization will have to prepare. Once results are in, every company, association, and coalition will be chasing the same new offices with the same requests. Get in front of new members early. Identify the candidates in open seats and competitive races who will matter to your issues, and be ready to reach out the day after the election with information about what you mean to their district. Those who show up early become trusted resources. Those who show up in February with an ask become one more meeting request. Know the new decision makers. New offices hire chiefs of staff and legislative directors between November and January, and retirements will open committee chairs no matter who wins. Know who is coming, who is next in line, and where they stand on your issues. Shape the narrative before someone else does. New members form their views quickly, often from what they read and hear at home. Have your story ready for local press, op-ed pages, and the trade outlets new staff will be reading in their first weeks. Bring local voices . Map your footprint in every district and state that matters, from employees and facilities to customers and community partners. A constituent in the room carries more weight than any one-pager. Line up your allies. Coalition partners, local leaders, and third-party validators who can carry your message matter even more with lawmakers who do not know you yet. Lock in your lame-duck asks. If your priority could ride on a funding bill, the NDAA, or an extender package, it needs to be drafted, socialized, and backed by allies before Congress returns. Be ready on day one. Prepare statements for every outcome, a briefing package built for new offices, and digital content ready to deploy the moment results are in. Don't Forget the States Thirty-six governorships and most state legislative chambers are on the ballot. New governors start building transition teams within days, and many legislatures convene in January. Every capital where you do business needs the same plan: relationships with incoming leaders and a message built for them. The Bottom Line Election Day ends the campaign, not the work. The relationships and narratives that will decide your issues in 2027 are taking shape now. At AxAdvocacy, we pair federal and state government relations with integrated public affairs campaigns, so our clients are in the room and in the conversation on day one.

Polling Error Is the Wild Card Heading Into November

By Bob Salera • October 6, 2026
Polling Error Is the Wild Card Heading Into November With four weeks until Election Day, Democrats are enjoying some of the most favorable polling they have seen in years. The question for anyone planning around November's results is a simple one: are the polls right? Recent history says that is far from guaranteed. In each of the last three election cycles, polls have missed in the same direction, and that direction has been toward Democrats. Three cycles, one direction Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin tracks the average statistical bias in polls taken during the final three weeks of each election cycle. The pattern since 2019 is hard to miss: • 2019-2020: polls overstated Democrats by 4.7 points across all offices • 2021-2022: polls overstated Democrats by 0.8 points • 2023-2024: polls overstated Democrats by 2.9 points  Averaged together, that is a 2.8-point miss in Democrats' favor.

State of Play: The Post-Recess Congressional Outlook

By Caleb Franz • September 10, 2026
The Post-Recess Congressional Outlook Congress returned from its five-week August recess and sent a bill to the President to fund the government through December 11, but the major fiscal and policy fights remain unresolved. That makes the CR a ceasefire, not a resolution — the fight over spending and policy is still ahead. The Clock The calendar is shrinking by the week. The House returned August 31, then canceled its remaining two full work weeks in September, leaving a single four-day session (September 14-17) before members leave for the campaign trail. The Senate has a bit more time, scheduled to stay in session through October 2. The September 30 fiscal-year deadline is no longer the immediate deadline because the CR extends funding through December 11. Neither chamber has the runway to finish the remaining major legislative agenda items before Election Day. The likely outcome is that decisions on government funding beyond December 11, the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act, and the fate of a third reconciliation package extend into the lame-duck session - decided by a Congress that may look different than the one sitting today. Appropriations & NDAA Appropriations and NDAA are traditional must-pass priorities. Reconciliation is optional. Appropriations remain the most immediate pressure point, and the December 11 deadline only buys time on the FY27 spending bills. All twelve have cleared the House Appropriations Committee, but only three have passed the full floor, and the Senate hasn't reported a single one out of committee. That disparity reflects the two chambers' unresolved fight over topline defense and non-defense spending levels. Absent a herculean effort by the leadership of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, passing any of the outstanding bills across both chambers by year's end is unlikely, and another stopgap will likely be necessary. After six decades of annual enactment, the odds are in favor of Congress ultimately producing an NDAA. The House passed its version in July by a narrow margin, authorizing roughly $250 billion more in defense spending than FY26 levels. The Senate's version is still pending, stalled since a failed July cloture vote, and even once it passes, a conference committee still has to reconcile the two chambers' different versions before anything reaches the President's desk. NDAA hasn't been signed into law before December in any of the last several cycles; last year's version wasn't signed until December 18, and this year is tracking the same way. With no official Senate passed product, the two chambers will begin informal conference discussions in earnest after the Congress officially breaks for the election season. Reconciliation 3.0 Reconciliation is the one item on this list Congress does not have to touch. Republicans already used the process once this year, passing a second reconciliation bill in June that provided roughly $70 billion in funding for ICE and CBP. A third package, built around Iran war funding, agricultural aid, and provisions tied to Republicans' election-law priorities, cleared the House in July, but the Senate has not advanced it. Majority Leader Thune has said he'd rather hold the framework in reserve as leverage for the funding fight than spend it on a standalone package before the election. Its prospects are likely to depend in significant part on how the funding negotiations develop as well as the election outcome. If one or both Chambers flip, look for Republicans to revisit reconciliation efforts as a last-ditch effort to provide funding to the Administration for key priorities prior to the new Congress. What the Election Changes The election will determine how much leverage each side has during the lame-duck period. With the election on November 3 and the CR expiring December 11, the lame-duck Congress would have roughly five weeks to resolve the next round of government funding. If Republicans retain both chambers, they can continue pursuing their legislative agenda, but the incentive to complete major priorities before the new Congress takes office would still depend on the size of their margins and the remaining legislative calendar. If Democrats win either chamber, the outgoing GOP majority faces greater pressure to resolve outstanding priorities before the new Congress takes office, when the balance of power could shift. That could create a final push to lock in NDAA authorization levels and take another run at reconciliation before new members take office in January. The Bottom Line The next sixty days matter more than the usual pre-election lull suggests. The major open questions: the FY27 spending bills, NDAA authorization levels, and whether Republicans pursue a third reconciliation bill, remain unresolved. Organizations with a stake in any of these three fights have a narrower window than usual to get specific asks attached before that happens, and that window closes well before Congress reconvenes in January.

AxAdvocacy Expands to Ohio with Addition of Former State Representative Jon Cross as Principal

By Bob Salera • September 1, 2026
AxAdvocacy Expands to Ohio with Addition of Former State Representative Jon Cross as Principal Firm’s Columbus practice marks its latest expansion into key state capitals

Public Affairs Has a Performance Problem

By Ashlee Stephenson • August 13, 2026
Public Affairs Has a Performance Problem There is a hard truth our industry doesn't like to admit. Public affairs has become far too comfortable confusing activity with accomplishment. Too many firms celebrate meetings instead of momentum. They count bill introductions instead of policy victories. They send clients long recaps filled with updates everyone could have read themselves and call it strategy. That isn't advocacy. That's administration. Clients aren't hiring us to tell them what happened in Washington yesterday. They're hiring us to change what happens tomorrow. Somewhere along the way, much of our industry accepted that checking the box was enough. Weekly reports became the deliverable. Legislative summaries became the strategy. Calendar invites became evidence of value. Meanwhile, the companies paying the bills are facing the fastest-moving policy environment in decades. Artificial Intelligence Trade Tariffs Tax Policy Energy Workforce Shortages Antitrust China ESG Supply Chains State Activism Election Volatility The stakes have never been higher. Yet many public affairs programs are operating exactly as they did fifteen years ago. That should concern every CEO. Effort Isn't a KPI One of the biggest myths in our profession is that effort equals value. It doesn't. Clients don't care how many meetings you scheduled. They care whether their issue moved. They don't care how many memos you wrote. They care whether the narrative changed. They don't care how busy your team looked. They care whether they are better positioned because of your work. Being busy has become a substitute for being effective. The two are not the same. The Next Generation of Public Affairs The firms that will define the next decade won't be the ones with the biggest lobbying teams. They'll be the ones that integrate policy, communications, research, digital strategy, coalition building, and executive positioning into one coordinated campaign. Public affairs isn't just government relations anymore. It’s: Business Strategy Market Strategy Reputation Management Competitive Advantage The firms still operating in silos will be left behind. Relationships Matter. Initiative Matters More. Relationships remain the currency of influence. But relationships alone are no longer enough. Clients expect: Ideas before they ask for them Opportunities before they appear Intelligence before it becomes news Their advisors to think like business leaders - not order takers The firms creating the most value today aren't waiting for assignments. They are creating opportunities. Raise the Standard This profession deserves better than status updates disguised as strategy. It deserves: Curiosity Creativity Relentless preparation A bias toward action An obsession with producing measurable outcomes Our clients don't need more emails. They don't need another legislative summary. They need partners willing to challenge conventional thinking, anticipate what's next, and fight relentlessly for results. That's the standard. It should be the expectation - not the exception.

AxAdvocacy Launches Full-Service California Government Relations Practice with Addition of Veteran Lobbyist Joe Devine

By Bob Salera • August 3, 2026
Firm significantly expands its presence in the nation's largest state economy, offering clients a fully integrated federal, state, local, and public affairs platform.