AxIndex, Edition 13

SNAPSHOT

National Sentiment Tracking

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House. 

So far, 11 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.

Texas Senate Race Tied as Democrats Eye a Generational Pickup

A new New York Times/Siena poll shows the Texas Senate race deadlocked at 47% each between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state legislator James Talarico, signaling that the seat will require real investment to hold. An unsettled environment around the economy has tightened a contest that would ordinarily be safely Republican, and the result is a reminder that even the party's strongholds are not running on autopilot this cycle.

The race pits the 63-year-old Paxton against Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative, along demographic lines that will shape the fall fight. The task for Republicans is to consolidate the base and hold independents and crossover voters who remain in play. With Senate control potentially hinging on a narrow set of seats, keeping Texas firmly in the column matters well beyond the state, and the polling argues for treating it as an active race rather than a foregone conclusion. Read More.

The Alaska Supreme Court ruled Monday that Dan J. Sullivan, a retired Petersburg teacher, must appear on the U.S. Senate ballot alongside the incumbent, Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, affirming a Friday lower-court decision that the state Division of Elections overstepped in disqualifying him. The division had removed the challenger after complaints from the senator, the Alaska GOP and the NRSC that he filed in bad faith to confuse voters by sharing the incumbent's name and party. The justices found ballot design, not removal, was the proper remedy, and left the division to decide how his name would appear before the August 18 primary.

The stakes run beyond the novelty. Alaska is among the handful of seats expected to decide Senate control, and the incumbent's allies have cast the second Sullivan as a spoiler under the state's top-four, ranked-choice system. With ballots set to print imminently, the fight now turns on how clearly the two names can be distinguished, a design choice that could matter in a close race. Read More.

The Supreme Court ruled Monday that states may count mail ballots that arrive after Election Day if postmarked by it, rejecting an RNC challenge in Watson v. RNC. The 5-4 decision, written by Justice Amy Coney Barrett and joined by Chief Justice John Roberts and the three liberal justices, held that the Mississippi law at issue does not conflict with federal statutes setting Election Day, adding that any change must come from Congress or state legislatures. The ruling preserves grace-period laws in Mississippi and roughly a dozen other states ahead of November, avoiding a late-cycle scramble for election administrators.

President Trump called the decision a tremendous loss and renewed his push for the SAVE America Act, his stalled federal election overhaul, though Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said the votes are not there. The practical effect is continuity: the rules governing mail ballots in affected states will not change before the midterms, leaving the contested questions to the legislative arena. Read More.

Colorado Democrats vote Tuesday in a gubernatorial primary pitting U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet against state Attorney General Phil Weiser, with term-limited Gov. Jared Polis unable to run again. The contest has centered largely on which candidate would take a tougher posture toward the Trump administration. Late polling showed a competitive race, with one survey giving Weiser a 41-34 edge, though Bennet has consolidated broad institutional support. The winner will be favored in November in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2002.

The stakes reach beyond the statehouse. If Bennet wins the nomination and the general, he would vacate his Senate seat, letting the new governor appoint a replacement through 2028 and reshuffling a closely divided chamber. For a GOP working to expand the Senate map, the prospect of an appointed Colorado Democrat is a reminder of how downballot outcomes ripple upward. Read More.

The Supreme Court on Tuesday struck down federal caps on coordinated party expenditures, ruling 6-3 along ideological lines that the limits violate the First Amendment. The decision, written by Justice Brett Kavanaugh in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. FEC, overturns a 25-year-old precedent and removes restrictions on how much party committees can spend in concert with their own candidates. The case was brought by the NRSC and Vice President Vance and backed by the Trump Justice Department. With the limits gone, parties can now both raise large sums and coordinate freely with candidates, a combination that super PACs cannot match. Trump called the ruling a win for the First Amendment, while DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand and other Democratic leaders framed it as an opening for donor influence and corruption.

The practical effect is likely to flow to competitive races, where coordinated buys make television advertising cheaper. Party committees become more attractive vehicles for major-donor money heading into the midterms, potentially pulling resources back toward the formal party structures and away from the outside groups that have dominated since Citizens United. Both parties stand to benefit equally under the ruling, though the immediate strategic edge favors whichever committees can mobilize large donors fastest. Read More.

Republican strategists are privately uneasy about gasoline prices heading into November, a concern underscored by President Trump ordering the Justice Department to investigate oil companies he accused of price gouging. Prices are up nearly 90 cents per gallon nationally since the war with Iran began in late February, and 26% since the start of Trump's second term, even after a roughly 60-cent drop over the past month. Analysts warn the increases may linger in voters' minds even as they ease at the pump. History points to the danger: the party in power has lost an average of 21 House seats per midterm since 1978, with losses running smaller when gas prices fall and larger when they climb.

The exposure may fall unevenly. Brookings data show the average constituent of a Republican House member drives 26% more miles than a Democratic member's, leaving GOP-held districts more sensitive to pump prices, and Trump-won states saw sharper increases early in the conflict. The 2022 cycle offers a partial counterpoint, when Democrats limited losses to nine seats despite a 73% gas spike, aided by the Dobbs ruling. As GOP strategist Ron Bonjean put it, the task for Republicans is reminding voters that prices have come down, though a summer roller coaster tied to the Iran peace deal could complicate that message. Read More.