AxIndex, Edition 6

 

SNAPSHOT

 

Our Top 3:


1) Redistricting Fights Come to Courts and Ballots: Redistricting battles are intensifying across the country, with courts and ballot measures shaping the electoral landscape well before 2026. Missouri’s Supreme Court upheld mid-decade redistricting using existing census data, while Virginia’s high-stakes referendum is drawing tens of millions in outside spending to influence congressional maps.


2) Big Money’s Influence Faces Limits in Key Primaries: While large spends dominate in races and ballot measures, the Illinois primaries delivered mixed results for outside groups, particularly those tied to AIPAC, which spent more than $20 million across multiple races. While some preferred candidates won, others lost despite significant financial backing, highlighting that heavy spending can shape outcomes. The results underscore a key dynamic for 2026: outside money remains powerful, but candidate positioning and local dynamics still matter.


3) Democratic Gains at the State Level Signal Early Momentum: Democrats have flipped 29 Republican-held state legislative seats over the past 14 months, including a recent win in a Florida district covering Mar-a-Lago, marking an early warning sign for Republicans ahead of the midterms. Driven in part by cost-of-living concerns, these gains could have downstream impacts on redistricting, policy, and the candidate pipeline, with both parties increasingly viewing state races as a leading indicator of national political trends heading into 2026.

 

National Sentiment Tracking

 

Trump Approval: Polarized Map, Battleground Pressure

Nearly 14 months into his second term, Donald Trump is holding his base but remains underwater overall. New Civiqs data puts him at 39% approval / 57% disapproval (–18 net), a stable but constrained position heading into a midterm cycle.


The battleground map tells the real story. Arizona (-8) and North Carolina (-10) are still within reach, with Wisconsin (-11) close behind. But the challenge sharpens in the core tipping-point states: Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia (-17), and Michigan (-21), where disapproval is more baked in.


The takeaway: there’s no breakout state right now, but there doesn’t need to be. This is a turnout election environment. Trump’s floor keeps the map competitive, but his ceiling continues to cap upside in the states that will actually decide control. Read More.

Poll Shows American Support Voter ID, but Unsure on Save Act

When it comes to the SAVE Act, a new CBS poll shows voters are aligned on the idea, but not the actual policy. The core of the “SAVE America Act," requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote, draws strong support (66%), roughly two-thirds of Americans.

But that support doesn’t translate to the legislation itself. When asked about the SAVE Act, just 28% support it, 31% oppose, and 41% aren’t sure, a major drop-off once the policy gets specific.


Even among Republicans, support is soft and uneven: 60% support, 6% oppose, 34% unsure. Regardless of politics, only a small share say they know the details, while roughly half don’t know much at all.


Voters broadly support voting ID requirements in principle, but opinions on specific legislation remain unsettled, with awareness of proposed policies low heading into 2026. Read More.


HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

House
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 47.4 Dem - 42.5 GOP (D +4.9)
On this day in:
2022: 45.0 GOP - 41.8 Dem (R+3.2)
2018: 46.0 Dem - 39.5 GOP (D+6.5)


Recent Polls
The Alabama Poll (AL-01 GOP Primary): Carl 28, Marques 19
St Anslem (NH-02 General): Goodlander (D-i) 48, Tang Williams (R) 36 


Cook Ratings
TX-23: Solid R to Likely R
CA-48: Toss-up to Lean D

Retirements

Notable retirements from Congress are beginning to come out as the election year gets underway. The current total sits at 56 incumbent members (21 Democrats / 35 Republicans) of the House who have announced they are not seeking re-election. 


For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House.

Illinois Primaries Show Limits of Big Money Influence

Four Democratic House primaries in Illinois delivered mixed results for outside groups, particularly those tied to AIPAC, which spent more than $20 million to shape the races. While some candidates backed by pro-Israel and tech-aligned spending won, others prevailed despite being outspent, highlighting that heavy financial investment does not guarantee victory.


The results underscore the complex role of outside money in 2026 primaries: large spending can tip close races but can also energize opposition and become a liability. As super PAC involvement expands, these contests suggest that candidate positioning and local dynamics remain critical, even in heavily funded races. Read More.

Barr Senate Run Opens Long-Shot Opportunity for Democrats in Kentucky

Rep. Andy Barr’s decision to run for Senate is creating a rare open-seat opportunity in Kentucky’s 6th District, a seat Republicans have comfortably held for over a decade. While Democrats acknowledge they would have had little chance against Barr, his departure has put the district on their target list, with candidates emphasizing affordability and crossover appeal to compete in the GOP-leaning seat.


Still, the path remains steep. The district has trended more Republican in recent years, and early signs suggest it is not a top-tier battleground, with limited outside spending and skepticism from GOP strategists. Even without an incumbent, the race highlights both the opportunities and limits Democrats face in expanding the House map ahead of the 2026 midterms. Read More. 

Redistricting

Missouri Supreme Court Upholds Mid-Decade Redistricting

The Missouri Supreme Court ruled 4–3 that state lawmakers acted within their constitutional authority when they redrew congressional districts in 2025 using the same census data from 2022. The majority found that the state constitution does not explicitly prohibit mid-decade redistricting, allowing the legislature to pass a new map backed by Gov. Mike Kehoe and President Donald Trump.


The decision clears the way for a map that could shift political control, potentially flipping a Democratic-held Kansas City seat to Republicans, but the fight is not over. Opponents are pursuing a referendum to block the map, setting up a continued legal and political battle over redistricting ahead of the 2026 elections. Read More.



Massive Fundraising Gap Emerges in Virginia Redistricting Fight

A federal court rejected Republican efforts to block Utah’s court-ordered congressional map, clearing the way for districts that could give Democrats a viable path to one of the state’s four House seats in 2026. The map consolidates Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County rather than splitting it across multiple districts, and the court declined to intervene so close to the election calendar. The decision underscores how court rulings, even in reliably Republican states, are actively reshaping competitiveness and could influence the fight for House control. Read More.

SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

Retirements

So far, 10 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.



Stratton Wins Illinois Primary, Boosting Pritzker’s Influence

Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton is projected to win the Democratic primary to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, defeating Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, despite being significantly outspent. Stratton’s victory was bolstered by strong backing from Gov. JB Pritzker, who invested millions through an aligned outside group and put his political capital behind her bid.


With Illinois solidly Democratic, Stratton is now the clear favorite in November, making the primary the decisive contest. The result elevates Stratton to the national stage and strengthens Pritzker’s influence within the party as he continues to emerge as a potential 2028 presidential contender. Read More. 

Oklahoma Senate Appointment Sets Up Competitive Open Seat

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt has appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong to temporarily fill the Senate seat vacated by Sen. Markwayne Mullin, who was confirmed to lead the Department of Homeland Security. Stitt highlighted Armstrong’s business background and alignment with President Donald Trump’s energy agenda, but under state law, Armstrong is expected to pledge not to run for a full term, effectively creating an open-seat race later this year.


The appointment is already triggering early political maneuvering. Rep. Kevin Hern launched his bid and has already received endorsements from Leader Thune and Senator Tim Scott. With candidate filing set for April and a primary scheduled for June 16, the seat is poised to become a fast-moving and closely watched contest in the 2026 cycle. Read More.

Polling At A Glance

Recent Polls

PPP (NC General): Cooper (D) 47, Whatley (R) 44
Quantus Insights (TX GOP Runnoff): Paxton 49, Cornyn (i) 41
St. Anslem (NH GOP Primary): Sununu 49, Brown 48
St. Anslem (NH General): Pappas (D) 46, Sununu (R) 43
St. Anslem (NH General): Pappas (D) 47, Brown (R) 38

IN THE STATES

State-Level Gains Signal Early Democratic Momentum

Democrats have flipped 28 Republican-held state legislative seats over the past 14 months, including wins in deep red states like Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi, an early warning sign for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms. Some of these victories have even broken GOP supermajorities, raising concerns about turnout and voter enthusiasm.


Both parties see these races as a preview of the midterm environment, particularly as cost-of-living issues continue to drive voter sentiment. Democrats are expanding their map and investing heavily in state legislatures, where control impacts redistricting, while Republicans are focused on mobilizing low-propensity voters, setting up an increasingly competitive landscape heading into 2026. Read More.

Democrat Flips Florida Seat in Trump’s Backyard

Democrat Emily Gregory won a special election in a Florida state legislative district that includes Mar-a-Lago, flipping a seat Republicans had carried by 19 points in 2024 and defeating a Trump-endorsed candidate. The upset marks one of the most notable Democratic wins in a series of recent special elections, including in traditionally Republican areas.


Democrats are pointing to the result as further evidence of growing momentum ahead of the 2026 midterms, particularly as affordability concerns continue to drive voter sentiment. The victory in a district tied closely to President Donald Trump underscores potential vulnerabilities for Republicans, even in areas that have recently leaned heavily GOP. Read More.

EMERGING NARRATIVES

RNC Financial Advantage Over DNC Continues to Grow

The Republican National Committee significantly widened its fundraising lead over the Democratic National Committee in February, bringing in $18.5 million compared to the DNC’s $10.3 million. Entering March, the RNC reported nearly $109 million in cash on hand, about seven times more than the DNC’s $15.9 million, while Democrats also carry more debt than cash, driven by a $15 million loan taken out last year.


The growing financial gap could have major implications for the 2026 midterms, particularly as the Supreme Court considers raising limits on how much parties can spend in coordination with candidates. If approved, the change would allow the RNC to more directly deploy its cash advantage to support Republican campaigns, further amplifying the imbalance. Read More.

DCCC Launches Targeted Ad Blitz on Rising Gas Prices

House Democrats are launching a digital ad campaign blaming President Donald Trump and Republicans for rising gas prices tied to the Iran conflict, targeting voters in 44 competitive districts. The six-second ads will run on Facebook and Instagram and are geofenced to appear at or near gas stations, directly linking higher prices at the pump to GOP leadership.


The campaign reflects Democrats’ broader effort to center affordability ahead of the 2026 midterms, as gas prices have surged nationwide amid disruptions in global oil markets. While Republicans argue the increases are a short-term consequence of confronting Iran, Democrats are seizing on the issue as a tangible, everyday cost pressure for voters in key battleground districts. Read More.

ON THE HORIZON

Upcoming Elections:



March 31:
Arkansas Runoff


April 16:
NJ-11 Special General

AxAdvocacy Launches Full-Service California Government Relations Practice with Addition of Veteran Lobbyist Joe Devine

By Bob Salera • August 3, 2026
Firm significantly expands its presence in the nation's largest state economy, offering clients a fully integrated federal, state, local, and public affairs platform.

AxIndex, Edition 15

July 28, 2026
SNAPSHOT

AxIndex, Edition 14

July 15, 2026
SNAPSHOT

The DSA Surge: What Socialist Primary Wins Mean for Business and the Policy Landscape

By Bob Salera • July 9, 2026
The DSA Surge: What Socialist Primary Wins Mean for Business and the Policy Landscape In the span of two election cycles, the Democratic Socialists of America have gone from insurgent outsiders to a genuine force inside the Democratic Party. A new analysis of DSA's national endorsement record shows 25 primary wins across 15 states so far in the 2025-2026 cycle, a 62 percent success rate stretching from New York city councils to congressional primaries in Pennsylvania and Colorado. The trend is accelerating, and its implications run well beyond the halls of Congress. A Narrow Majority and a Familiar Problem The most immediate political concern is what happens on Capitol Hill if Democrats win the House with a thin margin. Hakeem Jeffries would face the same arithmetic Kevin McCarthy encountered with the House Freedom Caucus: a small group of ideologically committed members can hold a majority hostage. McCarthy was driven from the speakership in October 2023 by fewer than ten members. A larger DSA-aligned caucus, operating from the opposite end of the spectrum with fresh electoral mandates and no institutional loyalty to leadership, could prove equally disruptive. The Squad has already shown a willingness to break with Democratic leadership on appropriations, foreign policy, and procedural votes. More members with the same ideological profile and stronger grassroots backing would only amplify that dynamic. The Bigger Story Is Not Congress Congress gets the attention, but state legislatures and local governments set the conditions in which businesses actually operate. DSA candidates have won primaries in Georgia's state house, Minnesota's city councils, and city councils from New Jersey to Wisconsin to Arizona. These offices are pipelines. Today's Ithaca city councilmember is tomorrow's state legislator. The ideology rarely moderates as candidates advance. DSA's tracker shows an overall candidate win rate just above 50 percent since 2016, but the trend line matters: their 2025 cycle rate hit 62 percent, among the highest in their history. They are getting better at targeting winnable races, recruiting credible candidates, and turning out their base in low-turnout primaries where a motivated minority can determine outcomes. What It Means for Business in Blue States DSA's platform is not a vague progressive wish list. It calls for high progressive taxation, aggressive labor mandates, rent control, restructuring or defunding police, and opposition to most market-rate development. In jurisdictions where DSA-backed officials hold real power, those positions have translated into tangible policy. Minneapolis, where DSA holds several city council seats, has moved aggressively on landlord restrictions and business tax increases. San Francisco, where DSA-backed supervisor Dean Preston held power for years, saw some of the most restrictive commercial policies of any major American city before his 2024 defeat. Chicago's DSA aldermanic bloc has been a consistent source of opposition to development and public safety investment. These are not abstract ideological disputes. They represent direct compliance costs, operational risk, and a fundamentally less hospitable environment for investment. The National Drag, the State-Level Threat Nationally, a Democratic Party increasingly defined by its socialist wing faces real structural vulnerabilities. The 2024 results underscored how badly economic anxiety and perceptions of ideological overreach damage Democrats with working-class voters. An overtly socialist brand does not win back those voters. In competitive states and districts, it is a liability. But DSA does not need to win nationally to reshape policy. In blue states, a narrow legislative majority is enough to pass sweeping changes to tax policy, labor law, zoning, and regulatory structure. The voters most affected by those policies often have no political recourse. They cannot flip the state, and moving is not always an option. The Bottom Line DSA's electoral growth is not a narrative. It is a documented trend with a consistent track record across eight years and nearly 300 tracked candidates. For business and advocacy organizations, the lesson is that down-ballot primaries are where the policy environment is actually determined. A city council race in Milwaukee or a state house primary in Georgia does not generate national headlines, but it shapes the regulatory and tax climate that affects daily operations. Monitoring these races, engaging early, and understanding who holds office at every level of government matters more now than at any point in recent memory. The decisions being made in city council chambers today are the legislation being voted on in state capitals in five years.

Ashlee Rich Stephenson Joins SiriusXM POTUS

By Ashlee Stephenson • July 7, 2026
President Ashlee Rich Stephenson joined Steve Scully on SiriusXM POTUS to discuss the U.S. Senate landscape. Ashlee stated, "If I'm a Democratic operative, I'm hoping Haley Stevens pulls this out. Nominating a Democratic Socialist of America-backed candidate to run statewide in a true battleground would present real challenges for Democrats. If we start seeing Democratic Socialist of America candidates winning Senate nominations in states like Michigan, it signals a broader shift with implications that extend to the Electoral College, the presidency, and the future of free enterprise." And prior to the breaking news on Platner re-evaluating his campaign, they also covered Maine's Senate race, where Ashlee argued that Sen. Susan Collins remains in a strong position. Collins' long-standing reputation and the value Mainers place on character make the race far more challenging for Democrats than many expected, turning what was once viewed as a top pickup opportunity into a much more difficult path. Watch the full analysis of the 2026 U.S. Senate landscape here:

State of Play: Five Things We Are Tracking

By Kelly McElhaney • July 1, 2026
State of Play: Five Things We Are Tracking As Congress limps into the July 4th recess, it appears that the legislative agenda will remain in gridlock. The ongoing disagreements will ultimately define the remainder of the summer and fall calendar. SAVE America Act rebellion is freezing the House floor. A group of House conservatives have twice blocked procedural rules this week, demanding that leadership force action on the SAVE America Act. The faction has stalled many must-pass items and sent members home early for the second week in a row. Speaker Johnson needs near-unanimous GOP support to move anything with such a razor-thin majority. FY27 NDAA a victim of House Gridlock. The House Armed Services Committee has released a $1.15 trillion topline NDAA, with Chairman Rogers framing it around industrial base revitalization and getting to the administration's defense spending target. As of this week, the bill is caught in the SAVE America Act crossfire, with Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's push to attach the voter ID measure via amendment threatening to sink it in the Senate, where it needs Democratic votes to clear a filibuster. FY27 appropriations are inching forward. The House has passed two FY27 spending bills (MilCon-VA and Agriculture-FDA) and was set to take up the State Foreign Operations bill this week before the SAVE Act revolt punted it again. With the Senate in recess for two weeks, and the end of the fiscal year fast approaching, the path to a full-year deal versus another continuing resolution remains in question. Surface transportation reauthorization is racing against a September 30 deadline. With the IIJA's five-year authorization set to expire on September 30, the House T&I Committee advanced the bipartisan $580 billion BUILD America 250 Act (H.R. 8870) out of committee with a bipartisan 62-2 vote in May championed by Chairman Graves and Ranking Member Larsen. Floor time has not yet been announced, but committee leadership is hopeful it will be secured before the August recess. The Senate hasn't released its proposal yet, but early signals suggest strong continuity with the House version, with a streamlined return to the legislation’s original core functions. The urgency to move is driven by a very real funding problem: the Highway Trust Fund is projected to run dry by 2028, the House bill addresses this with a new EV and hybrid fees. Senate Appropriations markups keep getting delayed. Movement is expected once the Senate returns from its two-week recess. Senate Appropriations has postponed its full-committee markups of Agriculture-FDA, Commerce-Justice-Science, Legislative Branch, and MilCon-VA for the fourth time. Defense Subcommittee Chairman Mitch McConnell's hospitalization left Republicans short a vote. He is anticipated to return later this month.