AxIndex, Edition 6

 

SNAPSHOT

 

Our Top 3:


1) Redistricting Fights Come to Courts and Ballots: Redistricting battles are intensifying across the country, with courts and ballot measures shaping the electoral landscape well before 2026. Missouri’s Supreme Court upheld mid-decade redistricting using existing census data, while Virginia’s high-stakes referendum is drawing tens of millions in outside spending to influence congressional maps.


2) Big Money’s Influence Faces Limits in Key Primaries: While large spends dominate in races and ballot measures, the Illinois primaries delivered mixed results for outside groups, particularly those tied to AIPAC, which spent more than $20 million across multiple races. While some preferred candidates won, others lost despite significant financial backing, highlighting that heavy spending can shape outcomes. The results underscore a key dynamic for 2026: outside money remains powerful, but candidate positioning and local dynamics still matter.


3) Democratic Gains at the State Level Signal Early Momentum: Democrats have flipped 29 Republican-held state legislative seats over the past 14 months, including a recent win in a Florida district covering Mar-a-Lago, marking an early warning sign for Republicans ahead of the midterms. Driven in part by cost-of-living concerns, these gains could have downstream impacts on redistricting, policy, and the candidate pipeline, with both parties increasingly viewing state races as a leading indicator of national political trends heading into 2026.

 

National Sentiment Tracking

 

Trump Approval: Polarized Map, Battleground Pressure

Nearly 14 months into his second term, Donald Trump is holding his base but remains underwater overall. New Civiqs data puts him at 39% approval / 57% disapproval (–18 net), a stable but constrained position heading into a midterm cycle.


The battleground map tells the real story. Arizona (-8) and North Carolina (-10) are still within reach, with Wisconsin (-11) close behind. But the challenge sharpens in the core tipping-point states: Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia (-17), and Michigan (-21), where disapproval is more baked in.


The takeaway: there’s no breakout state right now, but there doesn’t need to be. This is a turnout election environment. Trump’s floor keeps the map competitive, but his ceiling continues to cap upside in the states that will actually decide control. Read More.

Poll Shows American Support Voter ID, but Unsure on Save Act

When it comes to the SAVE Act, a new CBS poll shows voters are aligned on the idea, but not the actual policy. The core of the “SAVE America Act," requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote, draws strong support (66%), roughly two-thirds of Americans.

But that support doesn’t translate to the legislation itself. When asked about the SAVE Act, just 28% support it, 31% oppose, and 41% aren’t sure, a major drop-off once the policy gets specific.


Even among Republicans, support is soft and uneven: 60% support, 6% oppose, 34% unsure. Regardless of politics, only a small share say they know the details, while roughly half don’t know much at all.


Voters broadly support voting ID requirements in principle, but opinions on specific legislation remain unsettled, with awareness of proposed policies low heading into 2026. Read More.


HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

House
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 47.4 Dem - 42.5 GOP (D +4.9)
On this day in:
2022: 45.0 GOP - 41.8 Dem (R+3.2)
2018: 46.0 Dem - 39.5 GOP (D+6.5)


Recent Polls
The Alabama Poll (AL-01 GOP Primary): Carl 28, Marques 19
St Anslem (NH-02 General): Goodlander (D-i) 48, Tang Williams (R) 36 


Cook Ratings
TX-23: Solid R to Likely R
CA-48: Toss-up to Lean D

Retirements

Notable retirements from Congress are beginning to come out as the election year gets underway. The current total sits at 56 incumbent members (21 Democrats / 35 Republicans) of the House who have announced they are not seeking re-election. 


For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House.

Illinois Primaries Show Limits of Big Money Influence

Four Democratic House primaries in Illinois delivered mixed results for outside groups, particularly those tied to AIPAC, which spent more than $20 million to shape the races. While some candidates backed by pro-Israel and tech-aligned spending won, others prevailed despite being outspent, highlighting that heavy financial investment does not guarantee victory.


The results underscore the complex role of outside money in 2026 primaries: large spending can tip close races but can also energize opposition and become a liability. As super PAC involvement expands, these contests suggest that candidate positioning and local dynamics remain critical, even in heavily funded races. Read More.

Barr Senate Run Opens Long-Shot Opportunity for Democrats in Kentucky

Rep. Andy Barr’s decision to run for Senate is creating a rare open-seat opportunity in Kentucky’s 6th District, a seat Republicans have comfortably held for over a decade. While Democrats acknowledge they would have had little chance against Barr, his departure has put the district on their target list, with candidates emphasizing affordability and crossover appeal to compete in the GOP-leaning seat.


Still, the path remains steep. The district has trended more Republican in recent years, and early signs suggest it is not a top-tier battleground, with limited outside spending and skepticism from GOP strategists. Even without an incumbent, the race highlights both the opportunities and limits Democrats face in expanding the House map ahead of the 2026 midterms. Read More. 

Redistricting

Missouri Supreme Court Upholds Mid-Decade Redistricting

The Missouri Supreme Court ruled 4–3 that state lawmakers acted within their constitutional authority when they redrew congressional districts in 2025 using the same census data from 2022. The majority found that the state constitution does not explicitly prohibit mid-decade redistricting, allowing the legislature to pass a new map backed by Gov. Mike Kehoe and President Donald Trump.


The decision clears the way for a map that could shift political control, potentially flipping a Democratic-held Kansas City seat to Republicans, but the fight is not over. Opponents are pursuing a referendum to block the map, setting up a continued legal and political battle over redistricting ahead of the 2026 elections. Read More.



Massive Fundraising Gap Emerges in Virginia Redistricting Fight

A federal court rejected Republican efforts to block Utah’s court-ordered congressional map, clearing the way for districts that could give Democrats a viable path to one of the state’s four House seats in 2026. The map consolidates Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County rather than splitting it across multiple districts, and the court declined to intervene so close to the election calendar. The decision underscores how court rulings, even in reliably Republican states, are actively reshaping competitiveness and could influence the fight for House control. Read More.

SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

Retirements

So far, 10 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.



Stratton Wins Illinois Primary, Boosting Pritzker’s Influence

Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton is projected to win the Democratic primary to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, defeating Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, despite being significantly outspent. Stratton’s victory was bolstered by strong backing from Gov. JB Pritzker, who invested millions through an aligned outside group and put his political capital behind her bid.


With Illinois solidly Democratic, Stratton is now the clear favorite in November, making the primary the decisive contest. The result elevates Stratton to the national stage and strengthens Pritzker’s influence within the party as he continues to emerge as a potential 2028 presidential contender. Read More. 

Oklahoma Senate Appointment Sets Up Competitive Open Seat

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt has appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong to temporarily fill the Senate seat vacated by Sen. Markwayne Mullin, who was confirmed to lead the Department of Homeland Security. Stitt highlighted Armstrong’s business background and alignment with President Donald Trump’s energy agenda, but under state law, Armstrong is expected to pledge not to run for a full term, effectively creating an open-seat race later this year.


The appointment is already triggering early political maneuvering. Rep. Kevin Hern launched his bid and has already received endorsements from Leader Thune and Senator Tim Scott. With candidate filing set for April and a primary scheduled for June 16, the seat is poised to become a fast-moving and closely watched contest in the 2026 cycle. Read More.

Polling At A Glance

Recent Polls

PPP (NC General): Cooper (D) 47, Whatley (R) 44
Quantus Insights (TX GOP Runnoff): Paxton 49, Cornyn (i) 41
St. Anslem (NH GOP Primary): Sununu 49, Brown 48
St. Anslem (NH General): Pappas (D) 46, Sununu (R) 43
St. Anslem (NH General): Pappas (D) 47, Brown (R) 38

IN THE STATES

State-Level Gains Signal Early Democratic Momentum

Democrats have flipped 28 Republican-held state legislative seats over the past 14 months, including wins in deep red states like Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi, an early warning sign for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms. Some of these victories have even broken GOP supermajorities, raising concerns about turnout and voter enthusiasm.


Both parties see these races as a preview of the midterm environment, particularly as cost-of-living issues continue to drive voter sentiment. Democrats are expanding their map and investing heavily in state legislatures, where control impacts redistricting, while Republicans are focused on mobilizing low-propensity voters, setting up an increasingly competitive landscape heading into 2026. Read More.

Democrat Flips Florida Seat in Trump’s Backyard

Democrat Emily Gregory won a special election in a Florida state legislative district that includes Mar-a-Lago, flipping a seat Republicans had carried by 19 points in 2024 and defeating a Trump-endorsed candidate. The upset marks one of the most notable Democratic wins in a series of recent special elections, including in traditionally Republican areas.


Democrats are pointing to the result as further evidence of growing momentum ahead of the 2026 midterms, particularly as affordability concerns continue to drive voter sentiment. The victory in a district tied closely to President Donald Trump underscores potential vulnerabilities for Republicans, even in areas that have recently leaned heavily GOP. Read More.

EMERGING NARRATIVES

RNC Financial Advantage Over DNC Continues to Grow

The Republican National Committee significantly widened its fundraising lead over the Democratic National Committee in February, bringing in $18.5 million compared to the DNC’s $10.3 million. Entering March, the RNC reported nearly $109 million in cash on hand, about seven times more than the DNC’s $15.9 million, while Democrats also carry more debt than cash, driven by a $15 million loan taken out last year.


The growing financial gap could have major implications for the 2026 midterms, particularly as the Supreme Court considers raising limits on how much parties can spend in coordination with candidates. If approved, the change would allow the RNC to more directly deploy its cash advantage to support Republican campaigns, further amplifying the imbalance. Read More.

DCCC Launches Targeted Ad Blitz on Rising Gas Prices

House Democrats are launching a digital ad campaign blaming President Donald Trump and Republicans for rising gas prices tied to the Iran conflict, targeting voters in 44 competitive districts. The six-second ads will run on Facebook and Instagram and are geofenced to appear at or near gas stations, directly linking higher prices at the pump to GOP leadership.


The campaign reflects Democrats’ broader effort to center affordability ahead of the 2026 midterms, as gas prices have surged nationwide amid disruptions in global oil markets. While Republicans argue the increases are a short-term consequence of confronting Iran, Democrats are seizing on the issue as a tangible, everyday cost pressure for voters in key battleground districts. Read More.

ON THE HORIZON

Upcoming Elections:



March 31:
Arkansas Runoff


April 16:
NJ-11 Special General

AxIndex, Edition 21

By Bob Salera • October 20, 2026
SNAPSHOT

The Morning After: Why Post-Election Planning Starts Now

By Sarah Williams • October 15, 2026
The Morning After: Why Post-Election Planning Starts Now With less than three weeks until Election Day, nearly all the attention is on who will win. For organizations with business before government, the better question is what they will do the morning after. November 3 will reset the cast of characters, shift the leverage, and open one of the most compressed legislative windows of the year. The organizations that come out ahead will be the ones that planned for every outcome before the votes were counted. A Five-Week Sprint The current continuing resolution funds the government through December 11, leaving a lame-duck Congress about five weeks to deal with FY27 spending, the NDAA, a possible third reconciliation package, and expiring programs from surface transportation to healthcare. Many of those decisions will be made by members who just won, just lost, or are about to hand over the gavel. And as Bob Salera noted in his recent look at polling error , today's polling leads are provisional, so the smart move is to plan for every scenario, not just the forecast. What to Do Now The next three weeks are the best time an organization will have to prepare. Once results are in, every company, association, and coalition will be chasing the same new offices with the same requests. Get in front of new members early. Identify the candidates in open seats and competitive races who will matter to your issues, and be ready to reach out the day after the election with information about what you mean to their district. Those who show up early become trusted resources. Those who show up in February with an ask become one more meeting request. Know the new decision makers. New offices hire chiefs of staff and legislative directors between November and January, and retirements will open committee chairs no matter who wins. Know who is coming, who is next in line, and where they stand on your issues. Shape the narrative before someone else does. New members form their views quickly, often from what they read and hear at home. Have your story ready for local press, op-ed pages, and the trade outlets new staff will be reading in their first weeks. Bring local voices . Map your footprint in every district and state that matters, from employees and facilities to customers and community partners. A constituent in the room carries more weight than any one-pager. Line up your allies. Coalition partners, local leaders, and third-party validators who can carry your message matter even more with lawmakers who do not know you yet. Lock in your lame-duck asks. If your priority could ride on a funding bill, the NDAA, or an extender package, it needs to be drafted, socialized, and backed by allies before Congress returns. Be ready on day one. Prepare statements for every outcome, a briefing package built for new offices, and digital content ready to deploy the moment results are in. Don't Forget the States Thirty-six governorships and most state legislative chambers are on the ballot. New governors start building transition teams within days, and many legislatures convene in January. Every capital where you do business needs the same plan: relationships with incoming leaders and a message built for them. The Bottom Line Election Day ends the campaign, not the work. The relationships and narratives that will decide your issues in 2027 are taking shape now. At AxAdvocacy, we pair federal and state government relations with integrated public affairs campaigns, so our clients are in the room and in the conversation on day one.

Polling Error Is the Wild Card Heading Into November

By Bob Salera • October 6, 2026
Polling Error Is the Wild Card Heading Into November With four weeks until Election Day, Democrats are enjoying some of the most favorable polling they have seen in years. The question for anyone planning around November's results is a simple one: are the polls right? Recent history says that is far from guaranteed. In each of the last three election cycles, polls have missed in the same direction, and that direction has been toward Democrats. Three cycles, one direction Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin tracks the average statistical bias in polls taken during the final three weeks of each election cycle. The pattern since 2019 is hard to miss: • 2019-2020: polls overstated Democrats by 4.7 points across all offices • 2021-2022: polls overstated Democrats by 0.8 points • 2023-2024: polls overstated Democrats by 2.9 points  Averaged together, that is a 2.8-point miss in Democrats' favor.

AxIndex, Edition 20

October 6, 2026
SNAPSHOT

AxIndex, Edition 19

September 22, 2026
SNAPSHOT

State of Play: The Post-Recess Congressional Outlook

By Caleb Franz • September 10, 2026
The Post-Recess Congressional Outlook Congress returned from its five-week August recess and sent a bill to the President to fund the government through December 11, but the major fiscal and policy fights remain unresolved. That makes the CR a ceasefire, not a resolution — the fight over spending and policy is still ahead. The Clock The calendar is shrinking by the week. The House returned August 31, then canceled its remaining two full work weeks in September, leaving a single four-day session (September 14-17) before members leave for the campaign trail. The Senate has a bit more time, scheduled to stay in session through October 2. The September 30 fiscal-year deadline is no longer the immediate deadline because the CR extends funding through December 11. Neither chamber has the runway to finish the remaining major legislative agenda items before Election Day. The likely outcome is that decisions on government funding beyond December 11, the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act, and the fate of a third reconciliation package extend into the lame-duck session - decided by a Congress that may look different than the one sitting today. Appropriations & NDAA Appropriations and NDAA are traditional must-pass priorities. Reconciliation is optional. Appropriations remain the most immediate pressure point, and the December 11 deadline only buys time on the FY27 spending bills. All twelve have cleared the House Appropriations Committee, but only three have passed the full floor, and the Senate hasn't reported a single one out of committee. That disparity reflects the two chambers' unresolved fight over topline defense and non-defense spending levels. Absent a herculean effort by the leadership of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, passing any of the outstanding bills across both chambers by year's end is unlikely, and another stopgap will likely be necessary. After six decades of annual enactment, the odds are in favor of Congress ultimately producing an NDAA. The House passed its version in July by a narrow margin, authorizing roughly $250 billion more in defense spending than FY26 levels. The Senate's version is still pending, stalled since a failed July cloture vote, and even once it passes, a conference committee still has to reconcile the two chambers' different versions before anything reaches the President's desk. NDAA hasn't been signed into law before December in any of the last several cycles; last year's version wasn't signed until December 18, and this year is tracking the same way. With no official Senate passed product, the two chambers will begin informal conference discussions in earnest after the Congress officially breaks for the election season. Reconciliation 3.0 Reconciliation is the one item on this list Congress does not have to touch. Republicans already used the process once this year, passing a second reconciliation bill in June that provided roughly $70 billion in funding for ICE and CBP. A third package, built around Iran war funding, agricultural aid, and provisions tied to Republicans' election-law priorities, cleared the House in July, but the Senate has not advanced it. Majority Leader Thune has said he'd rather hold the framework in reserve as leverage for the funding fight than spend it on a standalone package before the election. Its prospects are likely to depend in significant part on how the funding negotiations develop as well as the election outcome. If one or both Chambers flip, look for Republicans to revisit reconciliation efforts as a last-ditch effort to provide funding to the Administration for key priorities prior to the new Congress. What the Election Changes The election will determine how much leverage each side has during the lame-duck period. With the election on November 3 and the CR expiring December 11, the lame-duck Congress would have roughly five weeks to resolve the next round of government funding. If Republicans retain both chambers, they can continue pursuing their legislative agenda, but the incentive to complete major priorities before the new Congress takes office would still depend on the size of their margins and the remaining legislative calendar. If Democrats win either chamber, the outgoing GOP majority faces greater pressure to resolve outstanding priorities before the new Congress takes office, when the balance of power could shift. That could create a final push to lock in NDAA authorization levels and take another run at reconciliation before new members take office in January. The Bottom Line The next sixty days matter more than the usual pre-election lull suggests. The major open questions: the FY27 spending bills, NDAA authorization levels, and whether Republicans pursue a third reconciliation bill, remain unresolved. Organizations with a stake in any of these three fights have a narrower window than usual to get specific asks attached before that happens, and that window closes well before Congress reconvenes in January.