AxIndex, Edition 14

 

SNAPSHOT

 

Our Top 3:


1) Senator Graham’s Death Sends Shockwaves Through Congress:

Longtime South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham died Sunday after suffering an aortic rupture, prompting tributes from President Trump, congressional Republicans, and leaders around the world who praised his decades of leadership on national security and foreign policy. Beyond the personal loss, Graham's death creates immediate challenges for Senate Republicans, shrinking their majority to 52-47 and complicating an already crowded July agenda that includes confirming Attorney General nominee Todd Blanche, advancing the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), and negotiating a $350 billion defense spending package. As Budget Committee chair and one of Trump's closest allies in the Senate, Graham served as a key bridge between the White House and congressional Republicans, leaving uncertainty over who will shepherd those priorities in the weeks ahead. South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster announced on Monday that Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nordone, will serve the remaining months of Graham’s current term, which expires in January. A special election will be held next month to pick a new Republican nominee in the general election for Graham’s seat. 


2) Long-Held Partisan Turf Is Suddenly in Play:

A set of races this cycle threaten to end partisan winning streaks that have outlasted entire political eras, and Lindsey Graham's sudden death has added South Carolina to that list of unsettled terrain. Texas Democrats, shut out of every statewide office since 1994, see their best opening in over three decades against Ken Paxton after a hotly contested Republican primary. Down-ballot, the same dynamic is playing out in Iowa, where a likely Rob Sand gubernatorial win could be entirely muted if Republicans hold their 67-33 state House supermajority, prompting outside money to flow into obscure legislative races most cycles would ignore. Whether these longstanding structural advantages hold or crack will be one of the clearest signals of how much 2026's national environment is overriding decades of state-level partisan lean.


3) Democratic Dysfunction Threatens a Favorable Cycle:

Even with the national environment tilting their way, Democrats are grappling with turmoil of their own making across several must-win races. In Maine, nominee Graham Platner withdrew after sexual assault allegations he denies, forcing a compressed replacement process ahead of a July 25 convention. In Arizona, the DCCC's $200,000 spend to boost Marlene Galán-Woods over Amish Shah in the 1st District primary is drawing backlash after committee-backed candidates already lost primaries in California and Maine. Layered on top, a wave of DSA- and Working Families Party-backed primary wins, including Melat Kiros's upset of longtime Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado and a competitive Michigan Senate primary pitting Abdul El-Sayed against establishment-backed Haley Stevens, has some Democrats worried that visible intraparty fights could hand Republicans an opening to nationalize the midterms around division rather than the incumbent president. The common thread is a party whose top-down interventions and internal ideological fights are generating as much friction as momentum, right as it needs a unified footing to capitalize on a favorable cycle.

 

National Sentiment Tracking

 

Trump's Deportation Push Tests GOP's Texas Latino Gains 

A new survey from the U.S. Hispanic Business Council found that one in five Hispanic business owners in Texas have had an employee deported in the past year, with 70 percent expressing a negative view of workplace immigration raids. The same survey shows Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico holding a 7-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton among Hispanic business owners, an outlier from recent polls that have the race closer to a dead heat. Separately, a New York Times poll put Talarico's edge among Hispanic voters overall at 32 points, even as a plurality of respondents self-identify as Republican. Trump won Texas Latinos by 10 points in 2024, and Republicans redrew the state's congressional map last year, banking on those gains holding.

The findings point to real exposure in the districts most dependent on continued Hispanic support, since four of the five seats GOP mapmakers targeted to flip are majority-Hispanic. Immigration enforcement, once one of the GOP's strongest issues with Latino voters, is emerging as a liability as high-profile raids generate backlash even from some Republican officials in border districts. The bigger question is whether this softening reflects a durable shift away from the GOP or a temporary reaction that fades by November, with the Paxton-Talarico Senate race serving as the clearest early test. Read More.

The Streak-Breakers: Decade-Plus Political Droughts On the Line This Fall

Sabato's Crystal Ball identifies several Senate and gubernatorial races this cycle where one party hasn't won the seat in at least a decade, some running considerably longer. Democrats haven't won any statewide office in Texas since 1994, with their Senate drought predating that; they see this year's U.S. Senate race as their best opening in three decades. Maine's Angus King has held the state's other seat as a nominal independent since 2012, but the last actual Democratic nominee to win a Maine Senate race was in 1988. Georgia Democrats broke a decades-long statewide drought last year with two Public Service Commission wins, and Keisha Lance Bottoms now polls ahead in her bid for governor. Alaska hasn't elected a Democratic-affiliated governor since Tony Knowles.

These streaks share a common mechanism: they've persisted mainly because state-level partisan lean outweighed any single cycle's national environment, not because Democrats lacked competitive candidates. A blue midterm changes that calculus but guarantees nothing, since streaks this long usually reflect structural factors — turnout patterns, infrastructure, recruitment — that don't reverse in a single cycle even under favorable conditions. Whether these seats actually flip, and how many do so together, will say more about the durability of 2026's political mood than any single marquee contest. Read More.

HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

House
RCP Average Generic Ballot: 48.4 Dem - 43.1 GOP (D +5.3)
On this day in:
2022: 44.8 GOP - 42.3 Dem (R+2.5)
2018: 46.0 Dem - 40.1 GOP (D+5.9)

Retirements

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House. 

Trump Endorses Seven First-Time House Candidates as GOP Defends Slim Majority

President Trump on Monday endorsed seven Republicans running for the House for the first time, including John Cowan (Ga.-11), Anthony DiLorenzo (N.H.-1), Jeanine Driscoll (N.Y.-4), Jenny Honeycutt (S.C.-1), Barb Regnitz (Ind.-1), Brent Taylor (Tenn.-9), and Steve Toth (Texas-2). Five of the seven have already clinched their party's nomination. Cook Political Report rates three of the districts, Cowan's, Taylor's, and Toth's, as solidly Republican, while Toth is notable as the only endorsee who defeated a sitting member, ousting Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the March primary by roughly 15 points.

Republicans hold a narrow 220-215 edge once the House is at full strength, meaning Democrats need to flip just six seats to retake the majority, a steep climb given the redistricting fights that reshaped maps over the past year. The mix of endorsements reflects Trump's dual strategy of shoring up safe seats, as with Taylor's redrawn Tennessee district, while also testing his brand in tougher terrain, including DiLorenzo and Regnitz's Democratic-leaning districts and Driscoll's head-to-head against freshman Rep. Laura Gillen in New York. Read More.

House Democrats’ Primary Meddling Is Backfiring in Arizona 

The DCCC is spending $200,000 to boost Marlene Galán-Woods in Arizona’s 1st District, backing her over former state Rep. Amish Shah in a crowded primary for an open Phoenix-area seat now held by Republican Rep. David Schweikert. That comes after DCCC-backed candidates lost in California and Maine, while the committee says its support is aimed at maximizing Democrats’ chances in a must-win district. The result is a growing argument inside the party over whether Washington should be choosing primary winners at all, especially when the DCCC’s endorsements are starting to look like liabilities. Shah’s camp is framing the race as a test of grassroots support versus “D.C. insiders,” which is exactly the kind of fight the party would prefer to avoid in a swing-seat cycle. Read More.

Progressive Primary Wins Test Democrats' 2026 Coalition

Democratic Socialists of America and allied groups including Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party have notched a string of primary wins this cycle, including Melat Kiros's upset of longtime Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado and several victories over incumbents in New York City. Nineteen sitting House Democrats and 20 nominated candidates carry backing from one of the three groups, while progressive-aligned Abdul El-Sayed is locked in a competitive Michigan Senate primary against establishment-backed Haley Stevens.

The trend has exposed a real strategic divide over how to run in a favorable midterm environment. Some Democrats worry high-profile progressive primary fights create an impression of disorganization that Republicans can exploit to nationalize otherwise favorable races. Others frame the wins as evidence that voters are rejecting a cautious establishment approach. Whether that energy translates into general-election strength, or instead hands Republicans an opening to make the midterms about intraparty division, remains one of the more consequential open questions of the cycle. Read More.

SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

Polling Averages
North Carolina: Cooper +6.9 (Flip)
Georgia: Ossoff +5.5
New Hampshire: Pappas +3.3
Ohio: Brown +0.6 (Flip) 
Michigan: Primary 8/4
Iowa: Tie
Maine: Awaiting New Dem Nominee --> Tipping Point
Alaska: Primary 8/18
Texas: Paxton +0.6
Florida: Moody +7.5


Recent Polls
Wick (GA General): Ossoff (D-i) 47, Collins 43

Retirements

So far, 11 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.


Platner’s Exit Sets Off Maine Democratic Scramble 

Democrats' effort to unseat Sen. Susan Collins was thrown into turmoil after nominee Graham Platner withdrew from the race following allegations by a former girlfriend that he sexually assaulted her—claims he has repeatedly denied. His exit came after key Democratic leaders and allies pulled their support, forcing the party into a compressed replacement process ahead of Maine's July 27 ballot deadline. Attention has quickly shifted to a crowded field of potential successors, including former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former Maine CDC Director Nirav Shah, former congressional candidate Jordan Wood, and Maine Beer Company co-founder Dan Kleban. Delegates will choose a nominee at a July 25 convention. While Democrats still view Maine as one of their best pickup opportunities, the late upheaval has forced the party to rebuild its campaign on the fly, raising new questions about whether it can quickly unite behind a nominee and keep one of the country's marquee Senate races competitive. Read More.

South Carolina Senate Race Thrown Into Chaos After Graham's Death

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, 71, died suddenly on July 11 after 23 years representing South Carolina in the Senate and just weeks after winning his GOP primary with 57 percent of the vote. Under state law, Gov. Henry McMaster will appoint a temporary replacement to serve through early January, while a special GOP primary is set for August 11, with a candidate filing window opening July 21. President Trump told NBC News he has a preferred replacement in mind but declined to name the person, while Rep. Nancy Mace is "strongly considering" a run after losing her gubernatorial primary bid in June, and 2026 primary runner-up Mark Lynch has already launched his campaign with a pledge of $5 million in personal funding. Rep. Joe Wilson and Nikki Haley have both taken themselves out of contention, while Rep. Ralph Norman is weighing a bid.

The seat was rated Solid R by Cook Political Report before Graham's death, and South Carolina hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, so the structural advantage still favors Republicans against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews. Still, the compressed primary timeline injects real uncertainty into what was a settled race, and the vacancy immediately tightens the GOP's working majority, with McConnell's hospitalization already limiting Republicans to 51 voting senators at a moment when the party needs every vote for the upcoming reconciliation package and Todd Blanche's AG confirmation. Read More.

Senate Leadership Fund Banks Record $238 Million War Chest

John Thune's Senate Leadership Fund had $238 million in cash on hand at the end of June, more than double the $117 million it held at this point in the 2024 cycle and up from $104 million in 2022. SLF and its nonprofit affiliate One Nation raised a combined $140 million in the second quarter, building on $115 million in Q1, with roughly a third of donors giving to the group for the first time. Senate Majority PAC, the main Democratic super PAC aligned with Chuck Schumer, slightly outraised Republicans for the quarter at $147 million but holds just $126 million on hand, with SMP's standalone Q2 haul of $58 million trailing SLF's own $78.2 million.


The disparity in banked cash gives Republicans more room to maneuver as they defend red-state seats in Iowa and Ohio while also going on offense, with SLF and One Nation planning roughly $100 million in spending in New Hampshire, Georgia, and Michigan. Still, nonprofit spending restrictions could complicate that offensive push in states without an incumbent on the ballot, such as Georgia and North Carolina, meaning the cash advantage may not translate evenly across every battleground. Read More.

IN THE STATES

The Supermajority Problem: Why Iowa's Governor's Mansion Might Not Be Enough

Rob Sand, Iowa's state auditor, is polling well enough to become the state's first Democratic governor in 16 years this November. But a Sand win would come without guardrails if Republicans hold their legislative supermajority, which lets them override any veto — a reality Govs. Laura Kelly of Kansas and Andy Beshear of Kentucky know well. That's pushing Democratic money downballot, into races like Jill Alesch's in suburban Des Moines and Mike Tupper's in Marshalltown, both bets on cracking a 67-33 Iowa House majority sitting at the bare minimum for a supermajority.

It mirrors a national fight: Democrats broke North Carolina's supermajority in 2024 to backstop Gov. Josh Stein, while Republicans work to prevent the same in Nevada and target Democratic chambers in Ohio and Kansas. Iowa Republicans aren't worried, pointing to a state that's "only trended more red." The bigger question is whether a marquee statewide win means much without the votes to match it. Read More.

Ohio Ad Spending Surges to $749 Million as Senate, Governor Races Tighten

Ohio's projected 2026 political ad spending jumped from an initial $440 million estimate to $749 million, a 70 percent increase that makes it the fourth-most expensive state in the cycle, according to AdImpact's 2026 Political Ad Spending Report. The surge is driven by the competitive Senate race between Sherrod Brown and Jon Husted and a tighter-than-expected governor's race between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, along with heavy outside-group spending.


The revision shows how quickly Ohio has moved from afterthought to marquee battleground, with both statewide races now drawing resources once reserved for traditional toss-up states. Ohio's climb mirrors the national picture, where AdImpact projects a record $11.6 billion in overall midterm ad spending, concentrated in a handful of contests in states like Ohio, Texas, and Maine that could decide control of Congress. Read More.

EMERGING NARRATIVES

Swing-State Republicans Cold-Shoulder Trump's Midterm Convention

Of 28 Republican candidates in competitive races that Politico contacted about attending the RNC's first-ever midterm convention, dubbed "Trumpapalooza" by RNC Chairman Joe Gruters, only two responded. The gathering is set for September 9-10 in Dallas, chosen in part to spotlight the marquee Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Likely Arizona gubernatorial nominee Andy Biggs is among those declining to commit, with his campaign saying travel plans haven't been finalized as it focuses on the July 21 primary.

The muted response signals a split within the party over how closely to embrace Trump ahead of November, particularly in statewide races where his approval rating could be a drag with undecided voters. Former Sen. Jeff Flake noted that candidates like Biggs have little incentive to tie themselves to the president right before early voting begins. Still, RNC officials argue that distancing from Trump would be a mistake, framing him as an enduring turnout asset for the base even if fewer candidates want to share a stage with him this cycle. Read More.

Trump Plans Prime-Time Election Speech Following EAC Purge

President Trump is planning a Thursday prime-time address built around reexamined FBI files that will argue U.S. election infrastructure has vulnerabilities, including claims of Chinese access to voter data, according to people briefed on the plan. The speech follows last week's firing of all three remaining Election Assistance Commission members, the only federal agency devoted solely to election administration, leaving it without a quorum four months before the midterms. The White House cited the Supreme Court's Trump v. Slaughter ruling as justification for the removals.

The pairing signals a coordinated push to reshape both the narrative and the machinery around 2026 election security, even as courts have repeatedly blocked related mail-ballot and citizenship-verification orders. Democrats call the EAC firings a partisan power grab, while election officials warn the vacancy could stall voting-system certification ahead of November. Whether Thursday's address moves public opinion or simply escalates an already polarized fight over election trust remains the open question. Read More.

AI Industry Super PACs Emerge as New Political Force

The two largest AI-focused super PACs, Leading the Future and Public First Action, have raised more than $200 million combined and spent at least $44 million backing 40 House and Senate candidates through June, per a CNBC analysis of FEC filings. Leading the Future backed 28 candidates, with 25 winning primaries and one loss; Public First Action backed 11, with all but one winning. Funding includes venture capital firms, AI executives, and a $20 million contribution from Anthropic to Public First Action restricted to public education rather than direct political spending.


Both PACs support some federal AI oversight but split on a key question: Leading the Future favors a single national framework preempting state AI laws, while Public First Action backs preserving state-level regulation. The near-uniform primary success of these AI-aligned candidates marks a new template for industry-specific spending, echoing crypto-backed PACs' 2024 playbook. Whether this yields durable legislative influence, or invites the same backlash crypto spending eventually drew, should become clearer once Congress takes up AI regulation. Read More.

ON THE HORIZON

Upcoming Elections:


July 21:
Arizona Primary

July 28:
South Dakota Primary Runoff
GA-13 Special General

August 4:
Kansas Primary
Michigan Primary
Missouri Primary
Virginia Primary
Washington Primary

August 6:
Tennessee Primary

August 8:
Hawaii Primary


August 11:
Alabama House Primary (CD 1, 2, 6, 7)
Connecticut Primary
Minnesota Primary
Vermont Primary
Wisconsin Primary


August 18:
Alaska Primary
Florida Primary
Wyoming Primary
CA-14 Special General


August 25:
Oklahoma Primary Runoff


September 1:
Massachusetts Primary


September 8:
New Hampshire Primary


September 15:
Delaware Primary

The Morning After: Why Post-Election Planning Starts Now

By Sarah Williams • October 15, 2026
The Morning After: Why Post-Election Planning Starts Now With less than three weeks until Election Day, nearly all the attention is on who will win. For organizations with business before government, the better question is what they will do the morning after. November 3 will reset the cast of characters, shift the leverage, and open one of the most compressed legislative windows of the year. The organizations that come out ahead will be the ones that planned for every outcome before the votes were counted. A Five-Week Sprint The current continuing resolution funds the government through December 11, leaving a lame-duck Congress about five weeks to deal with FY27 spending, the NDAA, a possible third reconciliation package, and expiring programs from surface transportation to healthcare. Many of those decisions will be made by members who just won, just lost, or are about to hand over the gavel. And as Bob Salera noted in his recent look at polling error , today's polling leads are provisional, so the smart move is to plan for every scenario, not just the forecast. What to Do Now The next three weeks are the best time an organization will have to prepare. Once results are in, every company, association, and coalition will be chasing the same new offices with the same requests. Get in front of new members early. Identify the candidates in open seats and competitive races who will matter to your issues, and be ready to reach out the day after the election with information about what you mean to their district. Those who show up early become trusted resources. Those who show up in February with an ask become one more meeting request. Know the new decision makers. New offices hire chiefs of staff and legislative directors between November and January, and retirements will open committee chairs no matter who wins. Know who is coming, who is next in line, and where they stand on your issues. Shape the narrative before someone else does. New members form their views quickly, often from what they read and hear at home. Have your story ready for local press, op-ed pages, and the trade outlets new staff will be reading in their first weeks. Bring local voices . Map your footprint in every district and state that matters, from employees and facilities to customers and community partners. A constituent in the room carries more weight than any one-pager. Line up your allies. Coalition partners, local leaders, and third-party validators who can carry your message matter even more with lawmakers who do not know you yet. Lock in your lame-duck asks. If your priority could ride on a funding bill, the NDAA, or an extender package, it needs to be drafted, socialized, and backed by allies before Congress returns. Be ready on day one. Prepare statements for every outcome, a briefing package built for new offices, and digital content ready to deploy the moment results are in. Don't Forget the States Thirty-six governorships and most state legislative chambers are on the ballot. New governors start building transition teams within days, and many legislatures convene in January. Every capital where you do business needs the same plan: relationships with incoming leaders and a message built for them. The Bottom Line Election Day ends the campaign, not the work. The relationships and narratives that will decide your issues in 2027 are taking shape now. At AxAdvocacy, we pair federal and state government relations with integrated public affairs campaigns, so our clients are in the room and in the conversation on day one.

Polling Error Is the Wild Card Heading Into November

By Bob Salera • October 6, 2026
Polling Error Is the Wild Card Heading Into November With four weeks until Election Day, Democrats are enjoying some of the most favorable polling they have seen in years. The question for anyone planning around November's results is a simple one: are the polls right? Recent history says that is far from guaranteed. In each of the last three election cycles, polls have missed in the same direction, and that direction has been toward Democrats. Three cycles, one direction Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin tracks the average statistical bias in polls taken during the final three weeks of each election cycle. The pattern since 2019 is hard to miss: • 2019-2020: polls overstated Democrats by 4.7 points across all offices • 2021-2022: polls overstated Democrats by 0.8 points • 2023-2024: polls overstated Democrats by 2.9 points  Averaged together, that is a 2.8-point miss in Democrats' favor.

State of Play: The Post-Recess Congressional Outlook

By Caleb Franz • September 10, 2026
The Post-Recess Congressional Outlook Congress returned from its five-week August recess and sent a bill to the President to fund the government through December 11, but the major fiscal and policy fights remain unresolved. That makes the CR a ceasefire, not a resolution — the fight over spending and policy is still ahead. The Clock The calendar is shrinking by the week. The House returned August 31, then canceled its remaining two full work weeks in September, leaving a single four-day session (September 14-17) before members leave for the campaign trail. The Senate has a bit more time, scheduled to stay in session through October 2. The September 30 fiscal-year deadline is no longer the immediate deadline because the CR extends funding through December 11. Neither chamber has the runway to finish the remaining major legislative agenda items before Election Day. The likely outcome is that decisions on government funding beyond December 11, the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act, and the fate of a third reconciliation package extend into the lame-duck session - decided by a Congress that may look different than the one sitting today. Appropriations & NDAA Appropriations and NDAA are traditional must-pass priorities. Reconciliation is optional. Appropriations remain the most immediate pressure point, and the December 11 deadline only buys time on the FY27 spending bills. All twelve have cleared the House Appropriations Committee, but only three have passed the full floor, and the Senate hasn't reported a single one out of committee. That disparity reflects the two chambers' unresolved fight over topline defense and non-defense spending levels. Absent a herculean effort by the leadership of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, passing any of the outstanding bills across both chambers by year's end is unlikely, and another stopgap will likely be necessary. After six decades of annual enactment, the odds are in favor of Congress ultimately producing an NDAA. The House passed its version in July by a narrow margin, authorizing roughly $250 billion more in defense spending than FY26 levels. The Senate's version is still pending, stalled since a failed July cloture vote, and even once it passes, a conference committee still has to reconcile the two chambers' different versions before anything reaches the President's desk. NDAA hasn't been signed into law before December in any of the last several cycles; last year's version wasn't signed until December 18, and this year is tracking the same way. With no official Senate passed product, the two chambers will begin informal conference discussions in earnest after the Congress officially breaks for the election season. Reconciliation 3.0 Reconciliation is the one item on this list Congress does not have to touch. Republicans already used the process once this year, passing a second reconciliation bill in June that provided roughly $70 billion in funding for ICE and CBP. A third package, built around Iran war funding, agricultural aid, and provisions tied to Republicans' election-law priorities, cleared the House in July, but the Senate has not advanced it. Majority Leader Thune has said he'd rather hold the framework in reserve as leverage for the funding fight than spend it on a standalone package before the election. Its prospects are likely to depend in significant part on how the funding negotiations develop as well as the election outcome. If one or both Chambers flip, look for Republicans to revisit reconciliation efforts as a last-ditch effort to provide funding to the Administration for key priorities prior to the new Congress. What the Election Changes The election will determine how much leverage each side has during the lame-duck period. With the election on November 3 and the CR expiring December 11, the lame-duck Congress would have roughly five weeks to resolve the next round of government funding. If Republicans retain both chambers, they can continue pursuing their legislative agenda, but the incentive to complete major priorities before the new Congress takes office would still depend on the size of their margins and the remaining legislative calendar. If Democrats win either chamber, the outgoing GOP majority faces greater pressure to resolve outstanding priorities before the new Congress takes office, when the balance of power could shift. That could create a final push to lock in NDAA authorization levels and take another run at reconciliation before new members take office in January. The Bottom Line The next sixty days matter more than the usual pre-election lull suggests. The major open questions: the FY27 spending bills, NDAA authorization levels, and whether Republicans pursue a third reconciliation bill, remain unresolved. Organizations with a stake in any of these three fights have a narrower window than usual to get specific asks attached before that happens, and that window closes well before Congress reconvenes in January.

AxAdvocacy Expands to Ohio with Addition of Former State Representative Jon Cross as Principal

By Bob Salera • September 1, 2026
AxAdvocacy Expands to Ohio with Addition of Former State Representative Jon Cross as Principal Firm’s Columbus practice marks its latest expansion into key state capitals

Public Affairs Has a Performance Problem

By Ashlee Stephenson • August 13, 2026
Public Affairs Has a Performance Problem There is a hard truth our industry doesn't like to admit. Public affairs has become far too comfortable confusing activity with accomplishment. Too many firms celebrate meetings instead of momentum. They count bill introductions instead of policy victories. They send clients long recaps filled with updates everyone could have read themselves and call it strategy. That isn't advocacy. That's administration. Clients aren't hiring us to tell them what happened in Washington yesterday. They're hiring us to change what happens tomorrow. Somewhere along the way, much of our industry accepted that checking the box was enough. Weekly reports became the deliverable. Legislative summaries became the strategy. Calendar invites became evidence of value. Meanwhile, the companies paying the bills are facing the fastest-moving policy environment in decades. Artificial Intelligence Trade Tariffs Tax Policy Energy Workforce Shortages Antitrust China ESG Supply Chains State Activism Election Volatility The stakes have never been higher. Yet many public affairs programs are operating exactly as they did fifteen years ago. That should concern every CEO. Effort Isn't a KPI One of the biggest myths in our profession is that effort equals value. It doesn't. Clients don't care how many meetings you scheduled. They care whether their issue moved. They don't care how many memos you wrote. They care whether the narrative changed. They don't care how busy your team looked. They care whether they are better positioned because of your work. Being busy has become a substitute for being effective. The two are not the same. The Next Generation of Public Affairs The firms that will define the next decade won't be the ones with the biggest lobbying teams. They'll be the ones that integrate policy, communications, research, digital strategy, coalition building, and executive positioning into one coordinated campaign. Public affairs isn't just government relations anymore. It’s: Business Strategy Market Strategy Reputation Management Competitive Advantage The firms still operating in silos will be left behind. Relationships Matter. Initiative Matters More. Relationships remain the currency of influence. But relationships alone are no longer enough. Clients expect: Ideas before they ask for them Opportunities before they appear Intelligence before it becomes news Their advisors to think like business leaders - not order takers The firms creating the most value today aren't waiting for assignments. They are creating opportunities. Raise the Standard This profession deserves better than status updates disguised as strategy. It deserves: Curiosity Creativity Relentless preparation A bias toward action An obsession with producing measurable outcomes Our clients don't need more emails. They don't need another legislative summary. They need partners willing to challenge conventional thinking, anticipate what's next, and fight relentlessly for results. That's the standard. It should be the expectation - not the exception.

AxAdvocacy Launches Full-Service California Government Relations Practice with Addition of Veteran Lobbyist Joe Devine

By Bob Salera • August 3, 2026
Firm significantly expands its presence in the nation's largest state economy, offering clients a fully integrated federal, state, local, and public affairs platform.