AxIndex, Edition 16

 

SNAPSHOT

 

Our Top 3:


1) Economic Anxiety Deepens Heading into the Midterms: The economic backdrop heading into the midterms carries real headwinds, though the underlying picture is more mixed than the topline numbers suggest. Second-quarter GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, and July's jobs report showed employers cutting 23,000 jobs with May and June payrolls revised down by a combined 103,000; consumer spending and business investment, by contrast, have held up comparatively well. Weaker hiring, softer labor-force participation, and gas prices around $4.10 a gallon are still shaping voter sentiment, a dynamic reinforced by CBO's latest deficit projection of $2.1 trillion for fiscal 2026, as tariff revenue comes in below expectations following the Supreme Court's ruling striking down the administration's IEEPA tariffs. Amid these reports, Trump's approval has slipped to 35%, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll found Democrats narrowly edging ahead on economic trust, though within a range incumbent parties have typically closed in the final stretch. The bigger strategic question is whether Republicans can pair a still-resilient consumer economy with a unified affordability narrative before Democrats lock in a cost-of-living message of their own.


2) Progressive Democrats Keep Momentum, but Wisconsin Will Test Its Limits: Abdul El-Sayed's narrow Michigan Senate primary victory gave the Democratic left its most consequential statewide win yet, making him the first progressive to capture a statewide nomination in a state Trump carried in 2024. The result followed other progressive gains, including Donovan McKinney’s defeat of Rep. Shri Thanedar in Michigan, but the same night also delivered a reminder that the trend is not universal: former Rep. Cori Bush lost her Missouri rematch against Rep. Wesley Bell. The Aug. 11 Wisconsin gubernatorial primary is the next major test. Democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong leads the four-way field, running on a cost-of-living-focused populist message, while Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, backed by outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, has become the establishment’s chief vehicle for stopping her. Crowley and Evers warn that Hong could put a critical swing-state governorship at risk against Republican frontrunner Tom Tiffany; Hong argues that her coalition can bring new voters into the electorate.

3) Both Parties Maneuver to Rewrite the Rules of Engagement: With competitive seats increasingly scarce, both parties are turning to structural fights that could shape elections well beyond November. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore signed legislation placing a constitutional amendment before voters that would clear the way for Democrats to redraw congressional lines and eliminate Republicans' last House seat, mirroring GOP-led mid-decade redistricting elsewhere. A parallel fight is playing out over ballot initiatives, with as many as nine states weighing measures to raise the bar for citizen initiatives, mostly in Republican legislatures reacting to progressive wins on abortion rights and minimum wage. Uncertain they can win the next fight on the merits, both parties are working just as hard to control the terms on which it's fought.

 

National Sentiment Tracking

 

Democrats Edge GOP on Economy

For the first time in nearly a decade, voters narrowly favor Democrats over Republicans to manage the economy, 37% to 36%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted July 29 through August 3. The shift comes as the GOP’s longtime advantage on economic stewardship has steadily eroded amid the Iran war’s effect on household costs. Trump’s approval rating also fell to 35%, down from 37% in July and just one point above the lowest level of his second term. The poll found Democrats leading Republicans 42% to 37% on the generic congressional ballot, with independents favoring Democrats by 12 points. Read More.

AI Anxiety Rises, Especially Among Younger Americans 

Americans are becoming more skeptical of artificial intelligence after two years of improving attitudes, with 39% now saying AI does more harm than good, up from 31% in 2025. The shift is particularly pronounced among young adults: 47% of Americans ages 18-29 say AI does more harm than good, up 11 points from last year, while trust among the same group in businesses to use AI responsibly fell from 30% to 20%.


Concerns about employment are also growing, with 79% of Americans expecting AI to reduce the number of U.S. jobs over the next decade, including 75% of young adults, up 13 points from 2025. Overall, just 27% of Americans say they trust businesses at least somewhat to use AI responsibly, down from 31% last year. The findings suggest that as AI becomes more familiar, public concern is increasingly shifting from uncertainty about the technology to skepticism about its economic and social consequences. Read More.

HOUSE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

RCP Average Generic Ballot:
48.6 Dem - 41.6 GOP (D +7.0)
On this day in:
2022: 44.6 GOP - 44.5 Dem (R+0.1)
2018: 46.1 Dem - 40.1 GOP (D+6.0)

Retirements

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House. 

Trump-Backed Candidates Stumble in Tennessee and Michigan Primaries

Two Republican primaries last week produced unusual setbacks for President Trump's preferred House candidates. In Tennessee's redrawn 5th District, former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher defeated GOP Rep. Andy Ogles despite Trump's endorsement and a late campaign intervention — with Ogles also facing roughly $2 million in outside spending and opposition from Gov. Bill Lee (Read More). In Michigan's 8th District, Thomas Smith won the GOP nomination with just over 50% of the vote despite having suspended his campaign in July, defeating Trump-endorsed Amir Hassan in a fractured, low-information contest. Smith now advances to face Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet in one of the few districts nationally that backed Trump for president while electing a Democrat to Congress (Read More). While the results don't signal a broader collapse of Trump's primary influence, they underscore real limits to his endorsement power when he himself is not on the ballot.

House Democrats Expand Battlefield into Trump Territory 

The DCCC added 12 Republican-held districts to its “Districts in Play” list, bringing the total to 58 seats as the party looks to capitalize on a favorable national environment and reclaim the House. New targets include seats held by NRCC Chair Richard Hudson in North Carolina, House Financial Services Chair French Hill in Arkansas, and Colorado Reps. Lauren Boebert and Jeff Hurd – districts Trump carried and several incumbents won by double digits in 2024.

The move is more a signal of Democratic confidence than proof that each new district is competitive. Republicans control the House by only a narrow margin and can lose no more than two seats to retain the majority; recent polling and cost-of-living dissatisfaction have encouraged Democrats to test a broader affordability message. The NRCC, which has 36 Democratic targets of its own, argues the DCCC is attempting to distract from Democratic divisions after progressive primary wins. Read More.

Virginia Democrats Pick Establishment Candidates in Two Key House Districts 

Last Tuesday, Virginia voters wrapped up a primary season delayed to August by a failed Democratic redistricting push, setting up the fall's key House races. Both DCCC- and Gov. Abigail Spanberger-backed Democrat Elaine Luria, a former congresswoman, prevailed over three opponents in the 2nd District, setting up a rematch with GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans, who unseated her in 2022. Henrico Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor defeated a seven-way field that included progressive candidate Salaam Bhatti to win the 1st District nomination and will face Rep. Rob Wittman. Democrats are hoping to flip at least two Virginia seats as they work to reclaim the House, with the 5th District also emerging as a target after former Rep. Tom Perriello won the Democratic nod to challenge Trump-aligned incumbent John McGuire, who turned back a primary challenge of his own with 85% of the vote.  Read More.

SENATE HIGHLIGHTS

Polling At A Glance

Polling Averages
North Carolina: Cooper +7.6 (Flip)
Georgia: Ossoff +7.6
New Hampshire: Pappas +3.3
Maine: Jackson +2.3 (Flip)
Texas: Talarico +1.6 (Flip)
Ohio: Brown +0.6 (Flip) 
Alaska: Peltola +0.4 (Flip) --> Tipping Point
Michigan: Rogers +0.3 (Flip)
Iowa: Hinson +0.7
Florida: Moody +9.0

Recent Polls
TSU/YouGov (TX General): Talarico (D) 47, Paxton (R) 45
Texas A&M/Siena (TX General): Talarico (D) 47, Paxton (R) 43
Emerson (IA General): Hinson (R) 48, Turek (D) 45
KSTP/SurveyUSA (MN Dem Primary): Craig 42, Flanagan 40
KSTP/SurveyUSA (MN GOP Primary): Tafoya 48, White 13, Schwarze 5, Weiler 3
Quantus (SC GOP Special Primary): Graham Nordone 33, Norman 20, Fry 20, Sanford 17, Lynch 8
Change Research (NC General): Cooper (D) 50, Whatley (R) 41
Carolina Forward (NC General): Cooper (D) 50, Whatley (R) 43

 

Retirements

So far, 11 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.


Michigan Delivers a Progressive Win – but Not the Landslide the Left Expected

Abdul El-Sayed’s Democratic Senate primary victory is the progressive movement’s biggest statewide breakthrough of the cycle, but its narrowness leaves Democrats with significant work before November. The former public health official defeated Rep. Haley Stevens by just under one percentage point after an expensive race that split the party over ideology and Israel. The margin was far below pre-election polling, which had suggested a decisive El-Sayed victory. 


El-Sayed ran up margins in liberal college towns and high-education areas but struggled in metro Detroit and with important Black and Jewish constituencies. Republican Mike Rogers is already targeting those voters, seeking to portray El-Sayed as outside the Democratic mainstream; early polling gives Rogers a narrow edge. Michigan is a crucial open-seat defense in Democrats’ Senate path, so El-Sayed must now consolidate Stevens supporters and shift from a base-focused primary message to a broader affordability argument. Read More.

South Carolina Republicans Vote Today to Replace Lindsey Graham

South Carolina Republicans head to the polls today in a special primary to fill the remainder of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham's term, following his sudden death last month. More than 10 candidates are competing, led by Sen. Darline Graham, the late senator's younger sister, appointed to the seat days after his death, and Rep. Ralph Norman, with Rep. Russell Fry, former Gov. Mark Sanford, and businessman Mark Lynch trailing in polling. President Trump has given Darline Graham his "complete and total endorsement," urging her to run to honor her brother's legacy, though some South Carolina Republicans have privately grumbled about the arrangement, given Trump's mixed recent track record in the state's primaries. The winner will face Democrat Annie Andrews in November. If no candidate clears a majority today, the race proceeds to a runoff. Read More.

IN THE STATES

Wisconsin Democratic Primary Tests Anti-Establishment Wave

Wisconsin Democrats head to the polls today to pick a nominee to face Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, who ran unopposed in the GOP primary and voted against certifying the 2020 election results. The Democratic field narrowed to four: state Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist and Marquette poll frontrunner; Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, backed by outgoing Gov. Tony Evers on an electability message; state Sen. Kelda Roys; and former state administration secretary Joel Brennan. Sara Rodriguez exited after campaign finance irregularities, and Mandela Barnes dropped out July 31.


The race is the latest test of progressive momentum following Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan Senate primary win, though Midwest contests have leaned more on electability concerns than the party's coastal wins. Also on the ballot: Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District primary, where DCCC-endorsed Rebecca Cooke faces Emily Berge in a race Democrats see as a key pickup opportunity against Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Read More.

Maryland Democrats Push Ahead With Redistricting Plan That Could Eliminate the GOP’s Last House Seat 

Maryland is moving forward with a plan that could give Democrats control of all eight of the state’s congressional districts, as Gov. Wes Moore signed legislation placing a constitutional amendment on the November ballot. The amendment would clarify that Maryland’s constitutional requirements for compactness and respect for political and geographic boundaries apply only to state legislative districts, potentially clearing the way for lawmakers to redraw congressional lines ahead of the 2028 elections.

Democrats already hold seven of Maryland’s eight House seats, with Republican Rep. Andy Harris representing the state’s only GOP-held district, and an earlier map proposed by Moore’s redistricting commission would have made Harris’ district substantially more Democratic. Republicans have accused Moore and legislative Democrats of using redistricting to erase the state’s lone Republican voice in Congress, while Democrats argue the move is a response to Republican-led mid-decade redistricting efforts elsewhere and the changing legal landscape surrounding congressional maps. The amendment does not alter the 2026 congressional map; if voters approve it in November, however, Maryland Democrats would have a clearer path to pursuing a new map for the 2028 cycle. Read More.

GOP-Led States See a Wave of Fights Over Ballot Initiative Rules  

This year's midterms feature a wave of measures, in as many as nine states, that would rewrite the rules governing how citizen ballot initiatives qualify and pass, rather than deciding policy outright. Most originate in Republican-led legislatures seeking to raise the bar for future initiatives, a reaction to progressive wins on issues like abortion rights and minimum wage in red states. Missouri voters rejected one such measure by more than 80% this week; North Dakota, South Dakota, and Utah will ask voters in November to raise the threshold for constitutional amendments to 60%, while Idaho seeks to bar initiatives on drug legalization. Meanwhile, progressive advocates in states like Arkansas, Montana, and Nebraska are pushing counter-measures to protect the initiative process from legislative interference, marking a new phase of advocates playing offense rather than just defense. Read More.

EMERGING NARRATIVES

Widening Deficit Undercuts a GOP Fiscal Argument

CBO's latest monthly review pushed its fiscal 2026 deficit projection to $2.1 trillion, $200 billion above February's estimate, as the government's tariff windfall evaporates faster than expected following the Supreme Court's ruling striking down Trump's IEEPA tariffs. The administration's pivot to replacement tariffs under Sections 122 and 301 of the Trade Act hasn't fully closed the gap: by July, refunds tied to the ruling ($36 billion) outpaced gross collections ($26 billion). Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget's Maya MacGuineas called the borrowing pace, $1.8 trillion so far this fiscal year, outside a recession, "not normal." The report is notable heading into the midterms because tariffs had been pitched by the administration as a meaningful offset to the cost of last year's tax-and-spending law; the Supreme Court's ruling has scrambled that math, and the durability of replacement tariff revenue remains uncertain heading into fiscal 2027. Read More.

ON THE HORIZON

Upcoming Elections:


August 11:
Alabama House Primary (CD 1, 2, 6, 7)
Connecticut Primary
Minnesota Primary
Vermont Primary
Wisconsin Primary
South Carolina Special GOP Senate Primary


August 18:
Alaska Primary
Florida Primary
Wyoming Primary
CA-14 Special General


August 25:
Oklahoma Primary Runoff
South Carolina Special GOP Senate Primary Runoff (if necessary)


September 1:
Massachusetts Primary


September 8:
New Hampshire Primary



September 15:
Delaware Primary

AxIndex, Edition 21

By Bob Salera • October 20, 2026
SNAPSHOT

The Morning After: Why Post-Election Planning Starts Now

By Sarah Williams • October 15, 2026
The Morning After: Why Post-Election Planning Starts Now With less than three weeks until Election Day, nearly all the attention is on who will win. For organizations with business before government, the better question is what they will do the morning after. November 3 will reset the cast of characters, shift the leverage, and open one of the most compressed legislative windows of the year. The organizations that come out ahead will be the ones that planned for every outcome before the votes were counted. A Five-Week Sprint The current continuing resolution funds the government through December 11, leaving a lame-duck Congress about five weeks to deal with FY27 spending, the NDAA, a possible third reconciliation package, and expiring programs from surface transportation to healthcare. Many of those decisions will be made by members who just won, just lost, or are about to hand over the gavel. And as Bob Salera noted in his recent look at polling error , today's polling leads are provisional, so the smart move is to plan for every scenario, not just the forecast. What to Do Now The next three weeks are the best time an organization will have to prepare. Once results are in, every company, association, and coalition will be chasing the same new offices with the same requests. Get in front of new members early. Identify the candidates in open seats and competitive races who will matter to your issues, and be ready to reach out the day after the election with information about what you mean to their district. Those who show up early become trusted resources. Those who show up in February with an ask become one more meeting request. Know the new decision makers. New offices hire chiefs of staff and legislative directors between November and January, and retirements will open committee chairs no matter who wins. Know who is coming, who is next in line, and where they stand on your issues. Shape the narrative before someone else does. New members form their views quickly, often from what they read and hear at home. Have your story ready for local press, op-ed pages, and the trade outlets new staff will be reading in their first weeks. Bring local voices . Map your footprint in every district and state that matters, from employees and facilities to customers and community partners. A constituent in the room carries more weight than any one-pager. Line up your allies. Coalition partners, local leaders, and third-party validators who can carry your message matter even more with lawmakers who do not know you yet. Lock in your lame-duck asks. If your priority could ride on a funding bill, the NDAA, or an extender package, it needs to be drafted, socialized, and backed by allies before Congress returns. Be ready on day one. Prepare statements for every outcome, a briefing package built for new offices, and digital content ready to deploy the moment results are in. Don't Forget the States Thirty-six governorships and most state legislative chambers are on the ballot. New governors start building transition teams within days, and many legislatures convene in January. Every capital where you do business needs the same plan: relationships with incoming leaders and a message built for them. The Bottom Line Election Day ends the campaign, not the work. The relationships and narratives that will decide your issues in 2027 are taking shape now. At AxAdvocacy, we pair federal and state government relations with integrated public affairs campaigns, so our clients are in the room and in the conversation on day one.

Polling Error Is the Wild Card Heading Into November

By Bob Salera • October 6, 2026
Polling Error Is the Wild Card Heading Into November With four weeks until Election Day, Democrats are enjoying some of the most favorable polling they have seen in years. The question for anyone planning around November's results is a simple one: are the polls right? Recent history says that is far from guaranteed. In each of the last three election cycles, polls have missed in the same direction, and that direction has been toward Democrats. Three cycles, one direction Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin tracks the average statistical bias in polls taken during the final three weeks of each election cycle. The pattern since 2019 is hard to miss: • 2019-2020: polls overstated Democrats by 4.7 points across all offices • 2021-2022: polls overstated Democrats by 0.8 points • 2023-2024: polls overstated Democrats by 2.9 points  Averaged together, that is a 2.8-point miss in Democrats' favor.

AxIndex, Edition 20

October 6, 2026
SNAPSHOT

AxIndex, Edition 19

September 22, 2026
SNAPSHOT

State of Play: The Post-Recess Congressional Outlook

By Caleb Franz • September 10, 2026
The Post-Recess Congressional Outlook Congress returned from its five-week August recess and sent a bill to the President to fund the government through December 11, but the major fiscal and policy fights remain unresolved. That makes the CR a ceasefire, not a resolution — the fight over spending and policy is still ahead. The Clock The calendar is shrinking by the week. The House returned August 31, then canceled its remaining two full work weeks in September, leaving a single four-day session (September 14-17) before members leave for the campaign trail. The Senate has a bit more time, scheduled to stay in session through October 2. The September 30 fiscal-year deadline is no longer the immediate deadline because the CR extends funding through December 11. Neither chamber has the runway to finish the remaining major legislative agenda items before Election Day. The likely outcome is that decisions on government funding beyond December 11, the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act, and the fate of a third reconciliation package extend into the lame-duck session - decided by a Congress that may look different than the one sitting today. Appropriations & NDAA Appropriations and NDAA are traditional must-pass priorities. Reconciliation is optional. Appropriations remain the most immediate pressure point, and the December 11 deadline only buys time on the FY27 spending bills. All twelve have cleared the House Appropriations Committee, but only three have passed the full floor, and the Senate hasn't reported a single one out of committee. That disparity reflects the two chambers' unresolved fight over topline defense and non-defense spending levels. Absent a herculean effort by the leadership of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, passing any of the outstanding bills across both chambers by year's end is unlikely, and another stopgap will likely be necessary. After six decades of annual enactment, the odds are in favor of Congress ultimately producing an NDAA. The House passed its version in July by a narrow margin, authorizing roughly $250 billion more in defense spending than FY26 levels. The Senate's version is still pending, stalled since a failed July cloture vote, and even once it passes, a conference committee still has to reconcile the two chambers' different versions before anything reaches the President's desk. NDAA hasn't been signed into law before December in any of the last several cycles; last year's version wasn't signed until December 18, and this year is tracking the same way. With no official Senate passed product, the two chambers will begin informal conference discussions in earnest after the Congress officially breaks for the election season. Reconciliation 3.0 Reconciliation is the one item on this list Congress does not have to touch. Republicans already used the process once this year, passing a second reconciliation bill in June that provided roughly $70 billion in funding for ICE and CBP. A third package, built around Iran war funding, agricultural aid, and provisions tied to Republicans' election-law priorities, cleared the House in July, but the Senate has not advanced it. Majority Leader Thune has said he'd rather hold the framework in reserve as leverage for the funding fight than spend it on a standalone package before the election. Its prospects are likely to depend in significant part on how the funding negotiations develop as well as the election outcome. If one or both Chambers flip, look for Republicans to revisit reconciliation efforts as a last-ditch effort to provide funding to the Administration for key priorities prior to the new Congress. What the Election Changes The election will determine how much leverage each side has during the lame-duck period. With the election on November 3 and the CR expiring December 11, the lame-duck Congress would have roughly five weeks to resolve the next round of government funding. If Republicans retain both chambers, they can continue pursuing their legislative agenda, but the incentive to complete major priorities before the new Congress takes office would still depend on the size of their margins and the remaining legislative calendar. If Democrats win either chamber, the outgoing GOP majority faces greater pressure to resolve outstanding priorities before the new Congress takes office, when the balance of power could shift. That could create a final push to lock in NDAA authorization levels and take another run at reconciliation before new members take office in January. The Bottom Line The next sixty days matter more than the usual pre-election lull suggests. The major open questions: the FY27 spending bills, NDAA authorization levels, and whether Republicans pursue a third reconciliation bill, remain unresolved. Organizations with a stake in any of these three fights have a narrower window than usual to get specific asks attached before that happens, and that window closes well before Congress reconvenes in January.