AxIndex, Edition 17

SNAPSHOT

National Sentiment Tracking

For context, during the first Trump term, there were 52 retirements from the House. 

So far, 11 Senators have announced their retirement from the chamber at the end of the current Congress.

Trump's Endorsement Faces Its Toughest Test Yet in South Carolina Runoff

MAGA Inc., the pro-Trump super PAC, poured over $827,000 into text and phone outreach for Sen. Darline Graham in the final days of Tuesday's GOP Senate runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman, after largely sitting out the president's other midterm endorsements. A Trafalgar Group poll taken just before the vote showed the race essentially tied, with Graham at 47.9%. Trump also held a rare in-person rally for Graham in Myrtle Beach, a step he hasn't taken for other endorsed candidates this cycle.

Graham, appointed to fill her late brother Lindsey Graham's seat, has struggled to shake questions about her inexperience after stumbling on a foreign policy question during a debate, while Norman has leaned on nearly two decades in elected office. A Graham loss would mark a rare public rejection of Trump's midterm political capital, with strategists warning it could read as "a massive embarrassment" heading into the general election against Democrat Annie Andrews. Read More.

Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon, a Democratic Socialists of America member, defeated Alex Vindman by a 56%-44% margin in the Democratic Senate primary, despite being outraised nearly 19-to-1. Vindman, who rose to prominence testifying in Trump's first impeachment, had built a war chest exceeding $16 million to Nixon's under $1 million. Her win was powered by lower-income, less-educated counties that don't typically favor progressive candidates, running on Medicare for All, universal child care, and a rent freeze amid the state's affordability crisis. She'll face appointed GOP Sen. Ashley Moody in November.

Nixon's upset adds to a rough primary stretch for Democratic establishment figures, following similar DSA-aligned defeats of Reps. Dan Goldman, Shri Thanedar, and Diana DeGette earlier this cycle. Cook Political Report and other forecasters still rate the general election as Safely or Likely Republican, with betting markets pricing a Moody win near 90%, underscoring that the primary result reshuffles the narrative more than the odds. Read More.

Nearly one in three voters nationally used mail ballots in the most recent midterm and general elections, though usage varies widely by state and has fallen from a pandemic-era peak above 40% in 2020. A Supreme Court ruling clearing the way for Trump's mail-voting restrictions carries outsized consequences for states with the highest mail-voting rates, many of which are part of a nearly two-dozen-state, mostly Democratic-run coalition suing to block the effort. The plan traces to a March executive order directing the Department of Homeland Security to build state-by-state citizen eligibility lists and instructing USPS to help determine which voters receive ballots; USPS published implementing regulations Friday requiring states to share voter data and meet new ballot-envelope standards.

Whether the restrictions apply to November remains unresolved, with a lower court still weighing their legality, and the compressed timeline is the real story here: several states begin mailing ballots within weeks, leaving little room to implement procedural changes even if courts ultimately allow them. The states most exposed are disproportionately those Trump's coalition of opponents represents, raising the stakes of the ongoing litigation for turnout in the very states likely to matter most in November. Read More.

Voters in at least six states will decide voter ID ballot measures this year, the most in a single year on record, according to Ballotpedia. Oklahoma votes first, on Tuesday's primary runoff ballot, on a measure codifying its existing voter ID policy into the state constitution. Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina — all presidential battlegrounds — will vote this fall on measures toughening ID requirements, following eight other states that have already tightened voter ID rules legislatively this year, per the Voting Rights Lab.

The measures arrive after a Republican-backed federal election overhaul including proof-of-citizenship requirements stalled in Congress, pushing the fight to the state level instead. Other election-related measures on this fall's ballots include citizenship-only voting declarations in several states, Alaska's repeat referendum on ranked-choice voting, Maryland's Democratic-favoring redistricting rules, and Massachusetts votes on all-party primaries and same-day registration — signaling election administration itself is shaping up as a major midterm battleground alongside the races themselves. Read More.

At least 83 sitting House and Senate members won't return next year, the highest turnover since 2000, according to a TIME analysis. The breakdown includes 70 House members (30 Democrats, 40 Republicans) and 13 senators not seeking reelection, plus 12 incumbents who have already lost primaries — a figure that already exceeds the postwar average of 6.5 House primary losses per cycle. Ten senators have announced retirements, including Mitch McConnell and Thom Tillis, while 28 members left their seats to seek other office, with Democrats so far 0-for-6 in those bids.

The turnover reflects two distinct dynamics playing out in each party. Democratic incumbent losses are concentrated among establishment figures challenged from the left — DSA-aligned or Mamdani-endorsed candidates have now toppled Reps. Dan Goldman, Adriano Espaillat, Shri Thanedar, and Diana DeGette. Republican losses, by contrast, are almost uniformly loyalty tests: Reps. Thomas Massie and Dan Crenshaw lost after breaking with Trump, while Sen. Bill Cassidy fell after his 2021 impeachment conviction vote. With several primaries still pending through September, the total is likely to climb further before Election Day. Read More.

Impeachment credentials, once the fastest track to Democratic stardom, are becoming a liability in 2026 primaries. Alexander Vindman, the retired lieutenant colonel who testified in Trump's first impeachment and raised over $16 million, lost Florida's Senate primary to DSA member Angie Nixon's sub-$1 million campaign (read more). He's not alone: Rep. Diana DeGette, a 2021 impeachment manager, fell to a DSA-aligned challenger in June, as did Rep. Shri Thanedar and lead impeachment counsel Rep. Dan Goldman, both unseated by progressive rivals this cycle.

The pattern points to a deeper realignment in what Democratic primary voters are rewarding. "In Trump's first term, grassroots anger was primarily focused on Donald Trump and Republicans," said MoveOn's Joel Payne. "This time around, that anger extends to the Democratic establishment as well." House Democrats increasingly describe accountability messaging as insufficient on its own, with primary voters demanding sharper positioning on affordability, Medicare for All, and foreign policy.

The trend carries implications beyond primary season. Several House Democrats told Axios the losses are sapping momentum behind a potential 2027 impeachment push if the party retakes the House, even as others argue the results reflect weak individual campaigns more than a referendum on impeachment itself. Either way, the establishment's old currency is buying less than it used to. Read More.